Democracy Corps' new strategy memo has some stunning results about the discontent voters are feeling in the country and why Democrats are poised to take advantage of that electorally next year. It's an indictment of the Republican Party but also a cautionary tale for Democratic politicians who would be wise to heed the memo's warning:

Democrats have yet not found their voice as agents of change, except perhaps on Iraq, and risk falling short of their greatest aspirations. [...]

Democratic candidates for president and Congress are polling at 51 to 53 percent in the various races, but if 2008 is to bring a tidal wave, Democrats and progressives must become more fully the voice of what is wrong with these times. It is not enough to be anti-Iraq and anti-Bush.

As of now, Democrats start in a strong position to be sure.

The Democrats enjoy a stable 13-point lead in which party voters say they will support for president (53 to 40 percent) and a stable 10-point lead in the named-ballot for Congress (51 to 41 percent) - both essentially unchanged all of this year.

This is being driven by intense discontent with the direction of the country. Right track/wrong track is at 23/70; the status quo is unacceptable. Getting back to the first paragraph of the analysis, Democrats will benefit from this environment not because they have credibly sold themselves as agents of change, but rather because Republicans have insisted on defending the status quo.

Day in and day out, Republicans are making their situation worse: visibly aligning with the president on Iraq and the economy; supporting Bush's domestic priorities, including health insurance for children; their silence on top tier issues, like energy independence and health insurance, and the Republican presidential candidates pursuit of their most conservative base voters. While the Democratic primary is leading an increasing number of voters to support a Democrat for president, the Republicans are driving voters away.

To get a better sense of the mood of the electorate, Democracy Corps convened focus groups to discuss the direction of the country, and one section of their analysis of those results jumped out at me in particular: the part about the economy.

In the focus groups, we handed people a page of positive facts about the economy - and we nearly had to rescue the moderator from the disbelieving and angry participants. In fact, before this exercise, we asked people to write down two important things happening with the economy and none of the 40 participants said anything positive, with their negative notations centered on the high "cost of living." It is hard to underestimate the power of a Democratic message that simply recognizes the economic realities that are very real for these voters. Indeed, the very invisibility of their issues is for them evidence that this economy works for the big economic actors, not for average Americans.

This intense disdain for the status quo when it comes to the economy was echoed in the survey results when respondents were confronted by the differing perspectives taken by the presidential candidates of the two parties:

In the national survey, we presented the facts - the actual quotes from the Republican presidential candidates on the strength of the American economy put against Democratic statements - stressing lack of income growth, loss of jobs to China and India and rising health care and energy costs. By two-to-one, voters embraced the Democrats' view of the economy -- half the electorate, intensely.

The Republican candidate says:

• We're enjoying more than five years of successive economic growth thanks to tax cuts that strengthened our economy. There is no reason to believe that we're headed for a recession.
• This is the strongest economy on Earth. This country is the leader in the world and that is why China and India are trying to be like us. We have a lot to sell to them if we put on our entrepreneurial hats.
• We're enjoying low inflation, low unemployment and the stock market is doing well. If you look at the short term and 10-year projection for our economy, it's rosy.

The Democratic candidate says:

• Top incomes have skyrocketed while most Americans have seen no increase in their incomes for the past five years.
• Three million manufacturing jobs have already been lost, but
  outsourcing to China and India threatens to take even more.
• While pensions and health insurance are less secure, most Americans have seen their costs double and gasoline prices triple. We need an economy that works for everyone and makes America stronger.

Addressing the character of the economy puts Democrats at the center of the grievances that animate the desire for change. They can be the voice of an economy that works for the middle class, not just the wealthy and big business.

As this result reinforces, once again, it truly is about the economy, stupid, as poll after poll shows the economy rising on the list of voters' concerns. But not only will this issue be key to Democrats' victories next November (assuming the Republican response to the economy continues to be "la la la I can't hear you") but it will also be key to who wins the Democratic nomination; in fact, I think it already has informed that race.

More than any other Democrat running, Hillary Clinton has devoted her campaign to communicating an "I feel your pain" message about the economy, through her ads ("Invisible,""Trap Door," and "There For You" in particular,) through her "Middle Class Express" bus tour and in debates such her response last night on the AMT question:

You know, we've not been asked to sacrifice anything. You know, young men and women wearing the uniform of our country are dying and being maimed. We have the average American family losing a thousand dollars in income, and George Bush and his cronies can't figure out how they can give even more tax cuts to the wealthiest of Americans.

Now, I never thought Bill and I would be in that category, to be honest with you. So it's kind of a new experience. But it's not one that make us very comfortable, because we should be investing in new energy, we should be investing in college affordability, universal pre-K, the kind of health care plan that I've outlined.

That's what we intend to do. But we're going to have to deal with the AMT, something that the Republicans have refused to do because, very frankly, it hits people who are below their concern.

Now to be clear, it's not that the other candidates don't care about or aren't speaking to this issue, they absolutely are.  John Edwards has clearly made economic equality central to his campaign, which is actually why I think Iowa, and the race for the entire nomination, is going to come down to him and Clinton in the end. I just really believe Clinton has been the most effective messenger on this and it's been a strength that has gone largely unnoticed but one that I think has a lot to do with her lead.

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