I work on the Hill and have friends in both parties.
I can tell you a few things without much doubt:
1. The Democrats expect a blowout.
2. The Republicans mostly expect a blowout (this is born out of a combination of their distaste for McCain and their fear of Obama's political skills and teflon).
3. The McCain campaign is clueless, inept, overconfident, and in a bubble - a bubble they created when they transformed their campaign from an establishment campaign into a low budget insurgent's campaign.
The McCain people have scorn for Obama as a nominee and as a person. They overstate what they accomplished in the primary (basically, McCain won by attrition).
I'm a little worried about some of the conventional wisdom heading into the General Election. Here are the things we need to push against, because if they become Conventional Wisdom, they will damage the Obama brand.
Just two days after posting its last assessment of the House races, the Cook Political Report issued a sweeping set of changes. The new list put 59 Republican seats in jeopardy including 3 listed as Lean Democratic, 25 listed as Tossup, 15 as Lean Republican and 16 as Likely Republican.
The number of Tossup seats surged from 18 on October 4 to 25 on October 6. Six seats were upgraded from Lean Republican: FL-13 (Open, was Katharine Harris), MN-6 (open), PA-7 (Weldon), PA-10 (Sherwood),WA-8 (Reichert) and WI-8 (open). Tom Reynolds went from Solid Republican to Tossup in NY-26.