Bumped - Todd

The new CNN national primary poll shows two different dynamics at play in the two parties' primaries. On the Democratic side, Clinton rises above 50% for the first time in this poll, going from a 23% lead over Obama in September to a 30% lead today and expanding the distance between 1st and 4th place to 47%. While Giuliani is still ahead among the Republicans and actually expands his lead by 7% thanks to a plummeting Thompson, the Republican field is much more compact, with the top four candidates all within 14% of each other.

First the Democrats:

(485 RVs, Oct. 12-14, MOE 4.5%)

CandidateOctoberSeptemberRCP 5-poll Ave.Clinton514648.2Obama212320.4Edwards151612.6Richardson453.6

It's not insignificant, of course, that this is now the third poll in a week to show Clinton at or above 50% (as Mark Blumenthal says, that ABC/WaPo poll is an outlier no more.) Looking at the candidates' performance in relation to their recent averages, Clinton and Edwards appear to be rising and Obama looks stalled. Looking over a longer period, however, it's evident that Clinton is the only candidate who can really claim any longterm growth as Obama, Edwards and Richardson have all been at or above their current standing in national primary polling earlier this year, namely in early September; the CNN poll marks Clinton's second highest poll result of the year.

The Republicans:

(374 RVs, Oct. 12-14, MOE 5%)

CandidateOctoberSeptemberRCP 5-poll Ave.Giuliani272828.2Thompson192718.4McCain171513.2Romney131112.4

This result is perhaps most notable for Fred Thompson's 8 point fall, although that may just be a correction from an outlying result from September, which showed Thompson within 1 point of Giuliani. But even more intriguing is McCain's virtual tie with Thompson for second place, which runs counter to all conventional wisdom about McCain's and Thompson's respective viabilities. It also draws attention to the gap that sometimes exists between actual popularity (as measured in polls) and perceived popularity, as projected in the media. The storyline of McCain's fall has been fairly persistent, except for some reports of a gradual resurgence in New Hampshire, and his fundraising reflects this. Marc Ambinder reported earlier today that McCain's campaign is essentially bankrupt.

One notable result from the poll, and one that should be somewhat worrying for the Clinton campaign, is that Clinton beats Giuliani in a head to head match-up by only 2 points, 49%-47% (essentially a tie) whereas a generic Democrat beats a generic Republican 52%-39%. If this gap between Clinton's polled performance against Giuliani and that of a generic Dem is an indicator of a larger trend, this could signify a downside to a Clinton candidacy against Giuliani in particular. It also could signal a weakening on her part in the general, especially in light of this chart from Bowers that shows she'd achieved a minimum advantage of 3 points over Rudy since August, but that's too early to tell from just this poll. Interestingly, Al Gore performs better against Giuliani than Clinton does, 52%-46%.

There's more...

No wonder the White House wants to stage manage the much ballyhooed September Iraq report and have Secretaries Rice and Gates deliver it publicly to Congress instead of General Petraeus. Seems that people have pretty much already made up their minds about Iraq, regardless of what the September report says.

The latest CNN/Opinion Research poll (pdf) taken Aug. 6-8, finds that 64% oppose the war and 33% favor it and the September report is not going to change that.

As you may know, in September the top U.S. commander in Iraq will report to the President and Congress about how the war is going. If he reports that the U.S. is making progress, would that make you more likely to support the war, or would that have no effect on your view of the war?

More likely to support the war      28%
No effect on your view of the war 72%

Ouch.

On top of that, looks like the public is skeptical of the contents of the report no matter who delivers it. Fool me once...

As you may know, in September the top U.S. commander in Iraq will report to the President and Congress about how the war is going. Do you trust him to report what's really going on in Iraq without making the situation sound better than it actually is, or don't you feel that way?

Trust him to report what's really going on            43%
Do not trust him to report what's really going on 53%

Now, it does look as though the PR blitz that's been underway in the media may be paying dividends.

In general, do you think the U.S. military is or is not making progress in improving conditions in Iraq and bringing an end to the violence in that country? (ASKED OF HALF SAMPLE)

Is making progress       47%
Is not making progress 49%

Although, considering how the question is worded, this result may be more reflective of support for the troops rather than for Bush's escalation policy.

Does anyone else find it odd that not once in the entire poll is the word "surge" or "escalation" (or "Bush" for that matter) used even though it's this policy that the Petraeus report, the purported subject of the poll, is meant to update us on?

There's more...

Much has been made of Obama's and Edwards' jockeying for position as the true candidate of change. As part of his strategy, Obama has done his best to make the case not only that he is the one to bring real change to Washington but that Hillary Clinton's experience essentially disqualifies her as credible on that score (hence his trying to align her with Bush/Cheney.) If the new CNN poll of Democratic primary voters is any indication, however, this attempt to discredit Clinton as an agent of change just isn't taking. As these results show, voters find Hillary credible as both the candidate with the most experience and able to bring the most change. Unfortunately for Obama, voters just don't appear to see it as an either/or proposition.

CNN/Opinion Research Poll (8/6-8) (no link yet) 458 Registered Democrats or Dem-leaning Independents (MOE: +/-5% pts)

Which Candidate Has Right Experience

Clinton            59%
Edwards         11%
Obama            9%

Which Candidate is Most Qualified to Be Commander-in-Chief?

Clinton            46%
Obama            15%
Edwards         13%

Which Candidate is Most Likely to Bring Change?

Clinton            40%
Obama            27%
Edwards         15%

As you can see, Obama makes some headway with the change question but she still has him beat by double digits. He does better on likability and honesty:

Which Candidate is Most Honest?

Clinton            28%
Obama            24%
Edwards         19%

Which Candidate is Most Likeable?

Obama           34%
Clinton           31%
Edwards         19%

Considering the same poll has Clinton up 19% over Obama nationally, it would seem to reinforce the idea that 2008 is not about likability (as 2000 was) although that doesn't mean it's not about electability (as the 2004 Democratic primary was.) Flying in the face of conventional wisdom, CNN also found that Democrats see Clinton as overwhelmingly the most electable candidate.

Which Candidate Has Best Chance of Winning in November?

Clinton         55%
Obama         19%
Edwards       12%

Usual caveats about the small sample size, high margin of error and the fact that it's a national poll apply, of course, but it's hard to ignore the size of the leads Clinton enjoys on these questions. Note that the poll was conducted after her defense of lobbyists at the YearlyKos candidates forum, widely considered to be a political blunder. As Rasmussen would appear to confirm, any headway Obama had begun to make on that issue has been reversed as Clinton now once again enjoys a 20 point lead in their daily tracking poll.

So the question remains: what can Obama and Edwards do to undermine Clinton's lead?

There's more...