Although it was just yesterday that I demonstrated how the Gallup Daily tracking poll pretty much negates the wholly unwarranted panic that all has been lost, the results from today reinforce my assertion that the polling percentages aren't that much different today than when we began the democratic convention, despite a vastly changed nature of the race.

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Gallup has released weekly breakdowns of Candidate Support by Region for the week of Sept 1-7, which includes the RNC convention.  My own analysis comparing these numbers to the previous two weeks (Aug 25-31: Post-DNC convention and Aug 18-24: Pre-DNC convention), it's easy to see:

The Palin bounce in national polls is being driven by a response in the South.

Even better news - over both conventions:

Obama actually gained in the crucial Midwest and West.

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So the convention is over, and John McCain received his bounce, moving ahead of Barack Obama in the Gallup Tracking poll. Bounces are referred to as such for a particular reason: they tend to be fleeting. Will this even be discussed in a week's time? And so far, it appears that neither McCain's (nor Obama's) bounce is atypical.

Regardless, with Obama generally perceived to have been the slim frontrunner since June, John McCain leading in any poll is difficult to swallow, especially with a history of imploding democratic campaigns.

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Those who know me or have read my previous comments know that I am two things.

1. Absolutely for Obama
   
2. Not inclined to electoral panic.

But I must say that, relatively speaking, and taking all factors into account, McCain won the convention bounce.

For my admittedly convoluted reasoning, follow me after the jump.

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Rasmussen Reports sees a bounce for Barack Obama over John McCain since clinching the Democratic nomination Tuesday night.

Those results do not reflect leaners. The results with leaners are similar and get Obama to the magic 50%.

Rasmussen breaks down the reason for Obama's bounce:

Obama's bounce is the result of growing unity among the Democratic Party. Eighty-one percent (81%) of Democrats say they will vote for Obama over McCain. That's the highest level of party support ever enjoyed by Obama.

He's also seeing an uptick in his favorability.

Obama's bounce can be seen in his favorability ratings as well. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of voters now give the Illinois Senator positive reviews. Just 41% have an unfavorable opinion. Those totals include 36% with a Very Favorable opinion and 27% with a Very Unfavorable opinion. Today's results are the highest ratings yet recorded for Obama.

As for McCain, he is viewed favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 45%. Opinions about the presumptive Republican nominee are less firmly established. Just 16% have a Very Favorable opinion of McCain and 21% have a Very Unfavorable view (see daily results).

Interestingly, while the Gallup daily tracking poll does not see such dramatic movement toward Obama (yesterday's result shows Obama up just 1 point over McCain since Tuesday), Gallup's analysis reveals that it's likely just a matter of time.

Within the current five-day rolling average, Obama has exceeded McCain by a fair margin in each of the last three individual nights of Gallup polling, all conducted since Hillary Clinton announced she would be ending her bid for the Democratic nomination. It appears that her exit decision had the immediate effect of releasing some of her supporters to back Obama in the general election. If this continues in interviews conducted Sunday, Obama should have a clear lead over McCain in Monday's release.

It makes sense that Gallup would be less sensitive to day to day events since it is based on a 5-day rolling average versus 4 days for Rasmussen. Look for the next couple of Gallup releases to reflect a dramatic Obama bounce of its own.

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