It looks like the wheels are starting to come off the Obama  position that he is the more electable. A new AP-Ipsos Poll released today gives Clinton a clear 50-41 lead over John McCain. While Obama and McCain are mired at the margin of error  46-44. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/latestpolls/index.html

This is great news for the Clinton camp and coming on the heels of the SUSA release of a 9 point Clinton Indiana poll lead, along with the PPP poll showing a tightening race in North Carolina, it should provide important new energy to the Clinton campaign, and an infusion of new donations to the effort.

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Wow, look at McCain go! The media's favorite maverick has bounced to a tie with Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in their latest general election match-up. And The AP's Nedra Pickler can hardly contain her excitement.

Republican Sen. John McCain has erased Sen. Barack Obama's 10-point advantage in a head-to-head matchup, leaving him essentially tied with both Democratic candidates in an Associated Press-Ipsos national poll released Thursday.

The survey showed the extended Democratic primary campaign creating divisions among supporters of Obama and rival Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and suggests a tight race for the presidency in November no matter which Democrat becomes the nominee.

McCain is benefiting from a bounce since he clinched the GOP nomination a month ago.

And what a bounce it is. McCain has the nomination locked up and is arguably at his peak right now and all he can eke out in a general election match-up is a tie. Gotta love it. But what is interesting is where McCain has seen his biggest gains.

The four-term Arizona senator has moved up in matchups with each of the Democratic candidates, particularly Obama.

An AP-Ipsos poll taken in late February had Obama leading McCain 51-41 percent. The current survey, conducted April 7-9, had them at 45 percent each. McCain leads Obama among men, whites, Southerners, married women and independents.

Clinton led McCain, 48-43 percent, in February. The latest survey showed the New York senator with 48 percent support to McCain's 45 percent.

This does go against the grain a bit, as most polls show Obama performing better against McCain than Clinton does, although Clinton has been closing that gap lately. RCP now lists Obama's average margin against McCain at +.6% while Clinton is close at -1.6%. According to the AP analysis of the poll, Obama has lost ground among most constituencies, many of whom are likely to come home to him in the end such as voters under 35, independents and high income households. There's one demographic where Obama has lost ground to McCain that could be more of a longterm concern:

Against McCain, Obama lost ground among women -- from 57 percent in February to 47 percent in April. Obama dropped 12 points among women under 45, 14 points among suburban women and 15 points among married women.

I was speaking to a very smart woman last night about the bitterness many women are likely to feel toward Barack Obama if he wins the nomination over Hillary Clinton. Her prescription in that event, which I think also amounted to a prediction, was for Obama to pick a female VP candidate, although she thinks the VP choice would be much more likely to be a governor than the senator from New York herself. While I personally haven't given up on the whole dream ticket thing, I do think she might be onto something.

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The GOP debate in Dearborn, Michigan today began with an important question, Fred Thompson's answer to which highlighted just how out of touch the Republicans are with reality, especially on the subject of the economy. TPM summarizes the question and Fred Thompson's pathetic response.

* With this being the first debate featuring Fred Thompson, Maria Bartiromo decided to throw Thompson the first pitch of the event, asking why so many Americans feel pessimistic about the economy. He said that he did not feel pessimistic about the economy, with continuous economic growth, low inflation and other good fundamentals -- but is worried about the long-term projections thanks to high government deficits and mandatory entitlement spending.

* Bartiromo very quickly shot back by rephrasing and re-asking her question about the average American's angst, as if to say that Thompson didn't answer it the first time. He then responded: "Well, I think there are pockets in the economy certainly that are having difficulty. I think there's certainly those in Michigan that are having difficulty. I think you always find that in a vibrant, dynamic economy." He then dubbed the overall economic success "the greatest story never told."

Appropriately, this debate came on the same day that AP/Ipsos released results of its latest poll on the priorities of US voters (499 adults, Oct. 1-3, MOE 4.4%.) The results would seem to prove the premise of Bartiromo's question: that there is a massive gap between the economic indicators on paper and how people are actually feeling about the economy in the country. Take this notable finding:

Given an open-ended opportunity to name the major problem facing the U.S., 15 percent volunteered the economy. That was six percentage points more than named it when the AP-Ipsos poll last asked the question in July.

"They talk about a big surge in Iraq; well, there hasn't been a big surge over here," said Sadruddin El-Amin, 55, a truck driver in Hanahan, S.C., who named the economy as the top problem. "The job market isn't getting any better, not for the working class."

The results confirm what should be obvious: those with fewer opportunities aren't feeling the benefits of this so-called surging economy Thompson speaks so highly of.

Twenty-two percent of those with a high school education or less named the economy as the country's worst problem, compared to eight percent with college degrees. In addition, 20 percent of minorities cited the economy as the top issue, compared to nine percent who did so in July. There was no real difference between Republicans and Democrats, with just under a fifth of each naming the economy as biggest worry.

Republicans are banking on foreign policy dominating next year's election but if this poll is a sign of shifting priorities of the American electorate, the GOP is in for a rude awakening. For while Iraq/matters of war are still the number one issue on voters' minds (30%)...

Foreign affairs was considered the top problem by 42 percent, down from 49 percent in July.

Domestic issues were named by 33 percent in this month's poll, about the same as the 29 percent who cited them in July.

Between July and September, domestic issues went from 20 points below foreign affairs on the scale of Americans' priorities to just a 9 point deficit. That is a huge switch in three short months and may be the sign of a fundamental shift in what issues will determine the 2008 election.

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