Zogby's final tracking poll is out and he's on crack.

Obama 54.1, McCain 42.7, Other 3.1

No, it's not the results that say Zogby is on crack.  It's the wild swing from a just over 4 point lead just 3-4 days ago.

There's more...

Both Gallup and Zogby released their latest tracking poll results including interviews conducted Sunday. Notice a trend?

Gallup -- RVs

Obama 53 (52, 52, 52, 50, 51, 50...)
McCain 40 (41, 41, 41, 42, 42, 43...)

Gallup -- LVs (Traditional)

Obama 53 (51, 52, 51, 50, 49, 49...)
McCain 42 (43, 42, 43, 45, 46, 47...)

Gallup -- LVs (Expanded)

Obama 53 (52, 52, 52, 51, 51, 51...)
McCain 42 (43, 42, 43, 44, 44, 44...)

This led Gallup to project the final popular vote margin at a stunning 11 point Obama victory:

The final Gallup 2008 pre-election poll -- based on Oct. 31-Nov. 2 Gallup Poll Daily tracking -- shows Barack Obama with a 53% to 42% advantage over John McCain among likely voters. When undecided voters are allocated proportionately to the two candidates to better approximate the actual vote, the estimate becomes 55% for Obama to 44% for McCain.

The trend data clearly show Obama ending the campaign with an upward movement in support, with eight to 11 percentage point leads among likely voters in Gallup's last four reports of data extending back to Oct. 28. Obama's final leads among both registered voters and likely voters are the largest of the campaign. [...]

Gallup's final estimate is based on Gallup's traditional likely voter model, and assumes an estimated turnout of 64% of the voting age population, an increase over 2004. (Gallup estimates voter turnout from the results of key voter turnout questions, using a model that compares how respondents' answers to these questions have related, historically, to actual turnout.) This year's higher turnout estimate is fueled by a surge in early voting -- 28% of registered voters in the final poll indicated they had already voted -- and higher turnout among blacks than in any of the last four presidential elections.

Zogby has Obama expanding his lead slightly as well.

Zogby -- LVs

Obama 50.9 (49.5, 49.1, 50.1, 50.2, 49.1, 49.0...)
McCain 43.8 (43.8, 44.1, 43.1, 43.3, 44.4, 44.7...)

From Zogby's analysis:

"Barack Obama is where he needs to be and John McCain is not. In a multi-candidate race, assuming the minor candidates can win around 2%, 51% can win. Obama holds the groups that he needs and continues to hold a big lead among independents and his base. McCain seems to be holding his base without expanding it or moving into Obama's territory. A reminder: we will have another release based on polling through midnight Monday out early Tuesday."

There is a silver lining for McCain in the new WSJ/NBC News poll, which has him gaining 2 points in a week (alert Drudge!) Unfortunately for him, that still puts McCain at an 8 point deficit.

The new Wall Street Journal poll, conducted Saturday and Sunday, found 51% of likely voters favored Sen. Obama, versus 43% who favored Sen. McCain. Six percent remained undecided, with a third of those saying they were leaning toward a third-party candidate. The poll's margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

"The poll shows some slight movement for McCain. But with just 48 hours left, it's going to be a challenge to make up the rest of the difference," said Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster who conducts the survey with Democrat Peter D. Hart.

"This poll has all the earmarkings of an electorate that has reached an opinion that Barack Obama would be a good president," Mr. Hart said. "The uncertainties [about Sen. Obama] that were so prevalent early in the year have just melted away."

There's more...

Obama up 1.4 from yesterday, McCain flat.

Yeah, I know Zogby is crap.  But right now their crap is consistent with the better polls, within reason.

Turnout model is the true mystery and one doesn't have to be a Republican troll to use a conservative model.  E.g., more campaigns have bet the farm and proceeded to die when counting on the under-30 vote.  

Right now it's looking like Obama by 5 to 8 percent.  I'll be startled if it really reaches 10 percent or more as a few are predicting.

Poll junkies will start going through withdrawal soon.  Let's see...Dixville Notch starts voting in less than 35 hours.

There's more...

I'm surprised that no one has mentioned that Zogby has concluded their one-day poll for McCain didn't really affect the overall results of their poll:

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: One Day Is Not A Trend: Obama Holds His Lead

So even with one good day of polling for McCain, Obama remains in the lead by 6.7% in the Zogby poll.

But what really got me is this:

Remember, as I said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. This is a three-day rolling average and no changes have been tectonic. A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else's) health.

Let's review: Zogby trumpets a one-point lead for McCain, and right-wing sites go nuts for that, even as Zogby cautions that a one-day reading might not be conclusive. Meanwhile, Nate correctly shows that the one-day result is likely an outlier -- basically echoing Zogby's caution.

Yet when Nate proves to have been correct and Drudge at all prove to have been mistaken, who does Zogby criticize: baseball statistician Nate.

I guess the real story is that Zogby is feeling the pressure of the success of fivethirtyeight.com. Perhaps if Zogby attempted to be an actually neutral polling outfit as they claim, they wouldn't have anything to worry about.

There's more...

Statistical noise.  

Obama drops .1 from yesterday, McCain drops .2 from yesterday.

I'm cautious in my own take on turnout models and I expect McCain to close from 1.5 to 2.5 points on election day between some Republicans coming home and the undecideds breaking slightly against Obama.

Otoh, if the Obama turnout machine is really effective and the newly registerd voters turn out in high proportion, it'll be a rout.

And that's where it stands right now:  somewhere between a victory and a rout.

There's more...