It's hard to overstate the transformative moment that we're in as a nation and, particularly, as progressives. In just a few years, we've gone from the high point of conservative power to a stunning rejection of conservative federal leadership and the historic election of a progressive African-American president.

But the electoral sea change is just part of the extraordinary national moment. The financial meltdown and slide toward deep recession have crystallized Americans' anger over deteriorating economic security, stagnant mobility, growing inequality, and policies of isolation instead of connection. Americans are ready for a new social compact and a transformed relationship between the people and our government. They are calling for a new era of big ideas and different values than we've seen over most of the past three decades.

The electorate has shown an unprecedented willingness to overcome racial and ethnic barriers to take on daunting shared challenges. Young people, people of color, and low-income people turned out to register and vote in unprecedented numbers that bode well for a far more participatory and egalitarian democracy going forward.

Even before this year's remarkable events, opinion research showed a historic, progressive shift in Americans' views on issues that (not coincidentally) were barely mentioned in the election. Perhaps most striking is the shift on criminal justice and problems of addiction, where the U.S. public has moved broadly to support rehabilitation and treatment over incarceration and retribution, as well as assistance and integration for people emerging from prison.

But an unprecedented opportunity for progressive values and ideas is not the same as victory for a progressive social and policy vision. The stark challenges of rising inequality, faltering security, and broken systems of health care, immigration, and criminal justice are the same on November 5 as they were on November 4. What's changed is only the chance for transformative change.

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RNC Trust PAC just announced that they will start running Rev. Wright ads in PA,OH & FL. The TV ad links Sen. Obama to the controversial preacher for 20 years. It also shows Wright's famous "God Damn America" sermon.

I thought the Republican Party  would shock me for once &  decide not to go the Racial angle for 2008. But I guess I should have known better.

Will this work ? Personally, it may get the poll number to low single digits by election day in PA & OH. But I don't think its enough to alter the race. If we did not have this "Economic Collapse", then I may be a little worried. While in FL, since it is pretty much a dead heat, anything is possible.

The key today compared to the swiftboating of 2008 is the lessons learned. Especially with Obama's financial advantage compared to 2004. I'm pretty sure Axelrod will be flooding PA,OH & FL will Obama closing positive ads.

Nonetheless, its something to keep an eye on. Especially if the national media starts talking about Rev. Wright's relationship with Senator Obama for 20 years in this last 8 days.

The GOP is one hell of a party. You have no ideas left to solve our problems. So they just decide to personally destroy the opponent. Kerry, Cleland, Bill & Hillary. Now they want to do it to Obama.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1 008/Wright_TV.html

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Somehow most of us knew that this was eventually going to happen. Well its here. McCain campaign manager Rick Davis just confirmed their campaign's decision to RECONSIDER their earlier opposition to using controversial figure Reverand Jeremiah Wright.

My fellow democrats, its time to buckle-up for the ride. Senator John McCain has decided to go Racial big-time. This could potentially be an very ugly last two weeks.

I am confident that the Obama campaign already expected this event from happening & have contingency plans in place. The response from the entire Democratic Party should be LOUD, SWIFT, & MASSIVE. This is when raising $ 150 million will come in handy.

I expect virtually the entire Democratic elected officials led by  Senators,Governors & House members together with the media to immediately condemn any Wright attacks.

After John Kerry's swiftboating, NEVER AGAIN!

Here's a quote from Mr. Davis from his interview with  radio host Hugh Hewitt.

"Said Davis: "Look, John McCain has told us a long time ago before this campaign ever got started, back in May, I think, that from his perspective, he was not going to have his campaign actively involved in using Jeremiah Wright as a wedge in this campaign. Now since then, I must say, when Congressman Lewis calls John McCain and Sarah Palin and his entire group of supporters, fifty million people strong around this country, that we're all racists and we should be compared to George Wallace and the kind of horrible segregation and evil and horrible politics that was played at that time, you know, that you've got to rethink all these things. And so I think we're in the process of looking at how we're going to close this campaign. We've got 19 days, and we're taking serious all these issues." 

http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/talkradio /transcripts/Transcript.aspx?ContentGuid =4410315f-534c-43de-8ce2-18489afaaa3b

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CNN commentator Roland Martin is reporting that Obama has resigned his membership in his church, Trinity Baptist.  Will post more once something posts online.

UPDATE #1: Still nothing on the web, though the story has been picked up by most of the other blogs out there. Looks legitimate, though. Also- interesting timing, as the talking heads are busy discussing the restart of the DNC Rules meeting, which just got going a few minutes ago. Smart?

UPDATE #2: Reputable Chicago blogger Monroe Anderson is reporting that Obama sent a letter to Trinity yesterday. He's critical of Obama's decision, but understands it. I feel the same- I wish it wasn't necessary, but politically it seems like the only answer.

UPDATE #3: CNN saying they have confirmed this. Still no web link, but running on the ticker.

UPDATE #4: CNN confirms through Obama's campaign and has posted an article online. Obama will hold a news conference after his appearance in South Dakota.

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On Feb. 12, 2008, Barrack Obama beat Hillary Clinton in the state of Virginia with 64-35% of the vote. On May 6th, 2008 Obama beat Clinton in the neighboring southern state of North Carolina with 56-42% of the vote. African-Americans made up approx. 34% of the voter population in NC, in VA the % was approx. 29%.

In the 2004 election Bush beat Kerry 56-44% in North Carolina, in VA the results were Bush 54-46% over Kerry. In the 2000 election, NC went 56-43% for Bush over Gore, and VA went 52-48 for Bush over Gore (Edwards didn't seem to help much in these two states). In 1996, NC Dole won by 48.7-44%, in VA Dole won by 47.1 to 45.1% over Clinton in both states. African-American population of NC 21.4%, VA 19.4%. Obviously, these states are not exact matches, but they are very close.

On February 19th, 2008, Obama won Washington 68-31%. On May 20th, 2008, again in a neighboring southern state of Oregon Obama won by 59-41%. A-A percentage of voters approx. 3% in Oregon, no exit data available for Washington.

African-American population of Washington 3.1%, Oregon 1.6%.

In 1996, Clinton won 49.8-37.3% in Washington, and in Oregon 47.2-39.1%.
In 2000, Gore won 50-45% in Washington, and 47.1-46.9% in Oregon.
In 2004, Kerry won 53-46% in Washington, and 52-48% in Oregon.

Again like North Carolina and Virginia not exact matches but extremely similar.

2004 election results http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/ ... president/
2000 election results http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0876793.html
1996 election results http://www.presidentelect.org/e1996.html#map
African American state census data http://www.censusscope.org/us/map_nhblack.html
2008 exit poll data http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primar ... /state/#WA

I would love to compare the results of the 2008 primary results with the 2004 results, but unfortunately by the time of the Oregon and North Carolina primaries in 2004 Kerry had no real opposition racking up wins in 78%+ range in both states over Dennis Kucinich when Dean in WA and Edwards in VA were Kerry's top challengers. So, that comparison cannot be made.

The problem with the Democratic primary and caucus delegate allocation is that is very sporadic and arbitrary. If the election had been held last week in all the states and Obama received the vote totals he has, then he should be the nominee, with not much room for debate. However, the fact is the Obama of now is not the Obama of February and March. If the primaries had been held in those states that had their primaries and caucuses prior to the Wright imbroglio, I think Clinton would have a delegate lead much greater than Obama has and her popular vote total would be about 53-45% over Obama not including Florida or Michigan.

Obama should have won in Indiana, he didn't. He should have gotten at least 60% of the vote in NC and Oregon, again he didn't. He should not have been beaten by over 35% pts. in W. VA and Kentucky, yet he was.

The battleground states Clinton is doing better than Obama vs. McCain:

Ohio by 7 pts.
PA by 6 pts.
FL by 12 pts.
Missouri by 4.5 pts.
New Mexico by 1.5 pts.
Nevada by 11 pts.
Michigan by 1 pt. (how are either of these two not beating McCain in this state?)
New Hampshire by 5 pts.
North Carolina by 4 pts.
Georgia by 3 pts.

Wisconsin even (both lose to McCain)

The battleground states Obama is doing better than Clinton vs. McCain

Iowa by 5 pts.
Minnesota by 4 pts.
Colorado by 9 pts.
VA by 7 pts.
Oregon by 8 pts.
Washington by 6 pts.
California by 1 pt.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... /ohio.html

I only used poll results from after the Wright flare-up.

Clinton's arguement at this point consists of:

1.  She has won more votes cast than Obama, see results of next Tuesday to see what metric this encompasses.

2.  She has won 7 of the 8 most populous states and the top four (counting Florida and Michigan).

3.  She has won more of the swing states that the Democrats must win to be win the electoral college.  AR, WV, KY, PA, OH, MI, Fl, NH, NV, and NM.  Obama has won IA, VA, NC, CO, WA, WI, and OR.  

4.  She is leading McCain or doing better in more of these state than Obama in current polls(see above list).

5.  The Obama of today is not the Obama of February and March.  The Wright stories have peeled off about 7-10% of his support from mid-April.  

This campaign has been unlike any other in the past 40 years for the Democratic nomination, and yet people pretend like it is just like Kerry wracking up 40 pt wins to close out the nomination.  It seems like the vast majority on the liberal internet think it is a slam dunk for supers to get behind Obama, I just think is extremely unrealistic given the results of the past month.

Flame away at your leisure.

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