LA-06: The Significance of Tomorrow's Special Election

Tomorrow is the congressional special election in Louisiana's 6th district, which encompasses the area in and surrounding the capital city of Baton Rouge. The district is R+7 but polling has shown Democratic State Representative Don Cazayoux in the lead there, including the latest Survey USA poll (h/t Daily Kingfish).

Don Cazayoux (D) 50% (49%)
Woody Jenkins (R) 41% (42%)

The DCCC smells blood and so has upped its investment in the race including media buys, phonebanks and direct mail. Per Swing State Project:

The new expenditures tally up to $267,242, bringing the DCCC's total tab in this district to a whopping $1,185,396.

The benefits of having a congressional committee that is flush with cash. But the race means more than just an additional Democrat in congress and the DCCC knows it. This race is one of the few opportunities we'll have before November to see the excitement and increased participation inspired by the Democratic primary manifested in tangible electoral results. To that extent, this race is about more than just LA-06. Some will spin a Cazayoux win as proof of Obama's coatails in red districts but honestly I think it would be just a taste of what is going to happen in November with either candidate at the top of the ticket. However, if Cazayoux loses, or if the race ends up much tighter than polls suggest, expect it to be seen as evidence that Obama could actually be a drag downticket. The GOP is desperately trying to tie its Democratic challengers in red districts such as LA-06 and MS-01 to "liberal" Barack Obama. I suspect the tactic will backfire, but if it doesn't, cue Clinton talking points.

Per Capital briefing:

A different Freedom's Watch ad brings us to the other interesting angle in this Louisiana race -- the GOP's effort to tie Cazayoux, who is positioning himself as a conservative, to Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.). Speaking of health care, the ad says, "Where does Don Cazayoux stand? With Barack Obama for a big government scheme."

Will this tactic work? Operatives in both parties are waiting to find out. If Cazayoux loses, supporters of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) will add another plank to their argument that Obama is unelectable in November because he can't win in conservative and rural districts. If Cazayoux wins, Obama forces can say those attacks just won't work. Either way, this contest is important in a lot more places than just Louisiana.

Update [2008-5-2 13:15:58 by Todd Beeton]:Want to help Don Cazayoux in the final hours before the election, check out his website and contact the campaign HERE.

There's more...

LA-06: Meet Don Cazayoux

Another exciting opportunity to add to our majority before November. The LA-06 special general election is on May 3 - Todd

Cross posted at Daily Kingfish and Daily Kos.

The Cazayoux campaign released this web-only video about the race:

Don's candidacy has sparked a fire amongst the unions here in LA-06. While they've worked with political candidates before, I've never seen them this excited about a candidate. If you like the idea of adding to the Democratic majority in the House with someone who will be there with us on the economic issues we all care about, then donate.

I also had the opportunity to interview Don, using questions from commenters here at Daily Kos, MyDD, and Daily Kingfish. The interview is below the jump!

There's more...

LA-06: AnzaloneLiszt Research Polling Shows Cazayoux (D) Beating Jenkins (R)

Cross-posted over at Daily Kingfish and Daily Kos.

Bumped from the diaries -- Jonathan... Very exciting stuff. If you want to help out, head over to Act Blue today.

Yesterday, the Cazayoux campaign released the results of a poll it commissioned AnzaloneLiszt Research to do on the LA-06 special general election. Here are the results:

CandidatePoll %
Don Cazayoux49%
Woody Jenkins42%

Also, Cazayoux's favorable/unfavorable ratings are 55%/13%, which improved since the March primary, with the favorables increasing by 15%, compared to Woody's 56%/34%, which has remained static over the last month.

Further, the Republican generic ballot advantage in this district is gone ... with voters saying that 43% of them will vote for the Democrat, and 41% of them will vote for the Republican. That means Woody will have to win on his own merits.

There's more...

Diaries

Advertise Blogads


----------- myDD - skin -----------