Interesting numbers from Gallup:

An analysis of Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviewing conducted before and after the two major-party conventions shows that the impact of the conventions was not materially different for white women than it was for white men, and neither group's shifts were substantially different than the changes among the overall electorate.

[...]

Just before the Democratic National Convention (in Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviewing from Aug. 20-22), white women broke 47% to 40% in favor of McCain over Obama. In interviewing from Sept. 5-8, after both conventions were completed, white women's margin of support for McCain over Obama edged up modestly to 51% to 40%. This represents a gain of four percentage points for McCain among white women and no change in their support for Obama.

[...]

(For all voters, regardless of race or gender, the race shifted from a 46% to 44% advantage for Obama in Aug. 20-22 polling to a 49% to 44% advantage for McCain after the conventions. That's a gain of five points for McCain and a loss of two for Obama.)

Interestingly enough, White women voters have actually shifted to John McCain at a lesser rate than the electorate as a whole, if Gallup's numbers are to be believed -- a data point that kind of undermines the notion that the addition of Sarah Palin to the Republican ticket has seriously bolstered the GOP's standing within the key voting demographic. In fact, while McCain apparently leads Barack Obama by a 51 percent to 40 percent margin at present among White women, this spread isn't significantly better than the 55 percent to 44 percent margin by which George W. Bush defeated John Kerry within the group in 2004. Considering that this polling comes at the apex of the McCain bounce in the polls rather than on election day, it's not clear to me that this is a particularly amazing accomplishment.

It's worth noting, too, that Obama could and should be doing better among White women. As you can already see, he's running about 4 points behind Kerry in this group, and a full 9 points behind Democratic performance within the group in 2006. Hitting the choice issue -- and hard -- should be an effective way for Obama to move these numbers, but it won't do it all.

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In short, the numbers released last night by NBC News and The Wall Street Journal are really bad for John McCain. Here's the key graph:

However, Obama has a seven-point advantage (46-39) among all white women. How important is that lead? Newhouse explains that Republican candidates always expect to win white men by a substantial margin, but it is white women that usually decide the race. "If a Republican wins among white women, we usually win that election," he says, noting that George W. Bush carried that group in 2000 and 2004.

A seven-point for Barack Obama among White women might not seem overwhelmingly remarkable at this juncture, even when taken together with the quote from GOP pollster Neil Newhouse regarding the importance of this demographic to the electoral success of the Republican Party. (Newhouse also mentions the suburban White women's vote, which I discuss a bit below the fold.) But looking through recent exit polling it becomes clear that these numbers could be borderline disastrous for the McCain campaign.

During his 2004 reelection victory, George W. Bush carried White women by a 55 percent to 44 percent margin over John Kerry -- meaning that Obama is already running ahead (or at least even) with Kerry in this demographic while McCain is running more than 15 points behind Bush within this key subgroup. In 2000, Bush narrowly won White women, 49 percent to 48 percent, and even during the Democrats' sound victory in the 2006 midterm elections GOP House candidates won White women's votes by a 50 percent to 49 percent margin. So not only is McCain running well behind where Bush ran in this demographic during his reelection campaign, McCain is also running significantly behind where Bush ran during his popular vote loss and where his party performed during their big loss in 2006. Just which candidate is it that has a problem among White women voters?

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I wrote this for today's Beyond Chron.

Barack Obama's 17-point victory last night in Wisconsin was not just his ninth consecutive (and overwhelming) win since Super Tuesday.  The big news was how far he cut into Hillary Clinton's base - beating her among working-class voters, winning middle-age voters decisively, and almost tying her among white women.  Clinton still holds an edge among seniors, but there's evidence that she's losing support from Latinos  - which could prove fatal in the Texas primary on March 4th.  Clinton's decision to go negative backfired, raising serious questions about how she could stage a comeback at this point.  And like last week before the Potomac Primary, the Democratic race had a last-minute "scandal" that was supposed to give Clinton a surge - only to not materialize.  That's because voters have already made up their minds.

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There is something truly unique about Internet Social and political Activist and African American blogger Francis L. Holland. He is not like many black church leaders and progressive African American bloggers who dig their heads in the sand regarding what many people call race matters or Color Arousal. Particularly around theissue of gays and interracial dating. He is an in-your face bloggers who works to address issues, no matter how politically incorrect they may be to discuss in the open. Whether it's the role of the CIA in left wing blogs, the WhiteSphere vs the BlackSphere or Gays, white women, white men and the black family, Francis Holland blogs about it and asks us to think. Some of us will refuse, while others will respond. But, thats what I like about Francis Holland. Sometimes I will disagree with him and his approach, but hey, most times he is right on the money. check out his current post on "Gays, White Women, Controversy and Acceptance in a Black Family." I think you will agree, it makes one think. More Here: Copy and paste this link to your browser: http://www.africanamericanopinion.ning.com