Senate 2008 Guru's Week in the Senate Races

This week saw the release of August fundraising numbers, with the DSCC continuing to outpace the NRSC, $2.58 million to $2.36 million.  The NRSC continuing to get beat in fundraising month after month may be why they seem willing to exploit any fundraising opportunity, however crass and tasteless it may be.

Speaking of fundraising, Senate 2008 Guru started a new ActBlue page: the Expand the Map! ActBlue page, focusing on Senate races in states that don't typically have competitive Senate races, but could see strong competition with enough resources.  The page's inaugural campaigns are Idaho's Larry LaRocco and Oklahoma's Andrew Rice.  The first-day goal on Friday of ten contributions for both candidates was met, and we're closing in on our weekend goal of twenty contributions apiece.  With today being the last day of the third fundraising quarter of 2007, please contribute if you can!  These relatively early dollars coming in help demonstrate these campaigns' viability and competitivity.  So if you can chip in $100, that's great.  If you can chip in $5, that's great!  But, please do chip in if you can!

Also released this week were Survey USA's September poll numbers.  While Mitch McConnell's (51-40), Norm Coleman's (46-45), and Gordon Smith's (48-42) poll numbers all remained in the danger zone, the lowlight of the month was Pete Domenici's poll numbers plummetting to an atrocious 41-54.  You read that right: 41-54.  It looked like Domenici's descent in the polls as a result of his role in the Attorney Purge scandal had levelled off in the low 50's.  We'll see next month if the low 40's is an aberration or Domenici's new norm.

With Senate Republicans still stuck in the mud, it's no wonder that vulnerable political targets like Norm Coleman and John Sununu "routinely turn down" cable news interview requests.  I guess these vulnerable Republicans are too cowardly to stand up and defend their votes in favor of prolonging Bush's Iraq War and their myriad other votes putting them out-of-step with their constituents.  And here are many other stories affecting the Senate races this week:

Alaska: Hays Research conducted a poll finding that only 40% of Alaskans view Ted Stevens positively while 38% view Stevens negatively.  Further, only 43% of Alaskans said that they were likely to vote to re-elect Stevens while 45% said that they were unlikely to vote to re-elect him.  Very bad news for Stevens, especially in light of the fact that GOP Gov. Sarah Palin, perhaps the most popular elected official in the state, is leaning on Stevens to be more forthcoming with voters about his various scandals and investigations.  And that is all the more perilous for Stevens as the far-right conservative Club for Growth is seeking a primary challenger for the pork-loving Stevens.

Nebraska: Former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub backed out of the crowded Republican primary about two weeks after entering the scrum.  Nevertheless, incompetent NRSC Chair John Ensign seems to have insured a nasty primary between former Gov. and chronic quitter Mike Johanns and state Attorney General Jon Bruning when it became public that Ensign was urging local GOP leaders to help push out other opponents like Bruning in favor of Johanns.  Heckuva job, Ensign.  And it's not like Bruning hasn't already displayed a willingness to take the fight right to Johanns.  Meanwhile, as we continue to await former Senator Bob Kerrey's decision, he has laid out his current position on Iraq: "downsize the military commitment" but do not cut off funds.

Georgia: Lieutenant General David Poythress, Georgia's retiring adjutant general and a former Georgia Secretary of State and Labor Commissioner, is being eyed as a possible Senate challenger to Spineless Saxby Chambliss in 2008.  If it can't be Max Cleland, it would be great to have another military man lay out for Saxby what a coward Chambliss really is.  Also, the Athens Banner-Herald's political blogger called Chambliss out for his hypocrisy on voting against more rest time for soldiers when Chambliss himself took four deferments to get out of service in Vietnam.

Idaho: Larry Craig had his day in court this past week, but the judge says a ruling will not come until the end of this coming week at the earliest.  As such, Craig is not resigning (for the time being) and will continue his Senate work as scheduled.  GOP Gov. Butch Otter has a short list of possible replacement appointments ready to go, but he may not get the chance to use it as observers see Craig leaving rhetorical wiggle room to possibly serve out the remainder of his term regardless of the decision in his court case or to even actually consider running for re-election in 2008.  I think Craig should stick it out in order to send a message to a Senate Republican caucus that would throw him under a bus while welcoming back prostitute-lovin' David Vitter with thunderous applause.

Maine: Following a manufactured scandal in Susan Collins' 1996 Senate run in which she worked with a reporter to portray her opponent's very typical opposition research effort as a seedy witch hunt, and another manufactured scandal earlier this year in which Susan Collins wildly overreacted to the Maine Democratic Party having a staffer record her public appearances (ooh, the horror!), the Collins camp is now working to manufacture yet another dishonest political attack, trying to portray Congressman Tom Allen's impressive 98% voting record as something less than outstanding.  Collins would much rather focus on the rate of votes rather than the substance of votes, which puts her far to the right of mainstream Maine.  Meanwhile, the Rockland Courier-Gazette slammed Collins for her continued support for Bush's endless Iraq War, noting that "Collins has strayed so far into the camp of President George W. Bush that she can't free herself," and calling Collins' votes "destructive to the country and the state."

Texas: Daily Kos commissioned a poll by Research 2000 finding that John Cornyn held a 51-35 advantage over State Representative and Lieutenant Colonel Rick Noriega. The 51-35 figure is not too dissimilar from the 53-30 figure Rasmussen Reports released almost two weeks ago, which is pretty good considering most Texans probably have never heard of Rick Noriega yet. The Research 2000 poll also found that 40% of voters would re-elect Cornyn, 15% would consider another candidate, and 35% would vote to replace Cornyn. Those numbers are very promising.

Kentucky: Another week, another opportunity for the Kentucky media to call Mitch McConnell out for "utter hypocrisy" and "selective outrage." And now the far-right conservative Club for Growth is sniffing around the Bluegrass State for a primary challenger for McConnell.

North Carolina: According to an Elon University poll, voters said that the top four issues that would "influence their vote for U.S. Senator" were The Iraq War (78%), Economy (76%), Health Care Costs (75%), and Immigration (73%).  And what were the voters' satisfaction levels with Elizabeth Dole on those four issues?  Very poor: 32% for The Iraq War, 39% for Economy, 32% for Health Care Costs, and 28% for Immigration.  Elizabeth Dole will have a very hard time defending her record if less than 40% of voters are satisfied with her on issues that about 75% of voters will be basing their vote on.

Minnesota: Senate candidate Al Franken offered a powerful op-ed in the Star Tribune this week discussing how ridiculous it is for the Senate to actually debate over the MoveOn.org ad, with Norm Coleman continuing to play politics over the issue, while our soldiers continue to fight and die in Iraq.

Tennessee: Businessman and gubernatorial son Mike McWherter took another step toward a challenge to Lamar Alexander as McWherter formed a Senate exploratory committee.  Also, it came out that www.MikeMcWherter.com was reserved back in May, just in case.

Oregon: The Oregon Democratic Party this week examined Gordon Smith's lousy records on making education affordable, global warming and Big Oil, and, in light of his company's third fine for illegally dumping wastewater into a nearby creek, environmental protection, including a lifetime 26% rating from the League of Conservation Voters.

New Jersey: Stu Rothenberg concluded that Republicans have "no reason for even a shred of optimism" in a race against Senator Frank Lautenberg.

New Hampshire: Sprintin' John Sununu was the only New England Senator of either Party to oppose the hate crimes amendment (that even New Hampshire Republican colleague Judd Gregg supported), yet again demonstrating how out of touch Sununu is with Granite State voters.

Michigan: 2002 GOP MI-Sen nominee Rocky Raczkowski is considering giving it another go.  Also, GOP state rep. Jack Hoogendyk is considering a challenge to Senator Carl Levin.  The political mood in 2002 favored Republicans even more than the 2008 political mood is shaping up to favor Democrats.  Nevertheless, Levin crushed Raczkowski 61-38 in '02.

For daily news and updates on the U.S. Senate races around the country in 2008, check out Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.

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Senate 2008 Guru's Week in the Senate Races

After the previous week's roller coaster ride of Senate retirements and campaign entry announcements, this past week may seem comparatively ho-hum, but there were quite a few events of note.  Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) released its list of "The 22 Most Corrupt Members of Congress." Of the 22, four are Senators, and all four Senators are Republicans: Pete Domenici, Mitch McConnell, Lisa Murkowski, and Ted Stevens.  Further, a two-person honorable mention section includes David Vitter and Larry Craig.  Makes you proud, huh?  Also, we can add The Economist, RealClearPolitics, and CNN to the list of media outlets expecting significant Democratic successes in the 2008 Senate races.  WaPo's Cillizza's latest 10-seat Senate Line was posted, again featuring 8 Republican vulnerabilities and only 2 Democratic vulnerabilities, now with South Dakota in the ten-spot, on the brink of leaving the list of vulnerable seats.

And the events of the week from the races around the country, including lots of new polling:

Nebraska: Former Gov. Mike Johanns resigned his post as Secretary of Agriculture, ostensibly to join the crowded Republican Senate primary.  Secretary of Agriculture is now the fourth job in a row that Johanns has quit mid-way through a term to pursue another office.  And Johanns isn't just clearing out early - he's leaving very high priorities dangling.  Many people are rather angry with Johanns for leaving his office before the upcoming Farm Bill is finished.  However, it might be for the best, as Johanns' record outlines that he is no friend of farmers, having advocated for "significant cuts" to farm subsidies and having opposed a "permanent disaster fund" for farmers.

Meanwhile, in the event that former Senator Bob Kerrey enters the 2008 Senate race, the NRSC is already preparing a sleazy attack website, ostensibly criticizing Kerrey for spending the last few years running a college out of state.  It's especially absurd and hypocritical given that Johanns himself had to go "house-hunting" in Nebraska recently as he makes his return from Washington D.C.  To anybody who would argue that those situations are different because Johanns was called to serve in Washington by his President, I would respond that Johanns' call-to-service musn't be too dutiful or noble if he's willing to ditch the role in order to further his own political career, leaving the Farm Bill hanging all the while.  It's not like he couldn't finish work on the Farm Bill and then leave the Department of Agriculture.  The crowded primary that Johanns will be joining includes state Attorney General Jon Bruning and businessman Pat Flynn, with former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub also officially joining the race this past week, and businessman Tony Raimondo still considering a bid.  And if there is one thing Johanns can count on, it is that Bruning will ensure a very nasty, divisive primary.  Finally, the latest from Bob Kerrey is that he might run for Senate or he might not.  So stay tuned.

Alaska: The Associated Press broke the story that the FBI got corrupt Alaska businessman Bill Allen to tape conversations with Ted Stevens after they confronted Allen with evidence regarding Allen's bribing elected officials. The FBI wouldn't just give Stevens a public heads up to be more discrete in his phone conversations; as such, I imagine that the FBI would only let this news out as a precursor to an indictment or some other significant action.

Oregon: When Gordon Smith isn't trying to rhetorically dance around Iraq, he runs a frozen food company, Smith Frozen Foods. Well, Smith Frozen Foods was recently fined for dumping wastewater into a nearby creek, marking "at least the third time since the early 1990s that the company has been fined for polluting Pine Creek." As Loaded Orygun's Torrid Joe notes, "As spills go, this sounds neither massive nor especially toxic--but there's no such thing as a good waste dumping violation.  And being the third such violation, however minor, it suggests a less-than-dilligent attention span to protecting their nearby waterway." Smith's company's shady environmental record has been a campaign issue going back to Smith's first Senate run.  And I expect it will come up again this time around. It brings new meaning to the phrase, "Dump Gordon Smith."

Idaho: Republican Gov. Butch Otter has interviewed "about 19 people," mostly by telephone, for the Senate appointment, should scandal-embattled Larry Craig resign at the end of the month as planned.  Otter has met in person with Lt. Gov. Jim Risch and state Attorney General Lawrence Wasden.  Otter has not announced a date by which he expects to have a decision made; however, he has ruled out naming a place-holder, instead intending to name an appointee who will run for Senate next year, citing the need to build up seniority.  With Otter wanting to build up seniority, it may give a leg up to the 49-year-old Wasden over the 64-year-old Risch.  If Craig is to entertain any further notion of not resigning and rather serving out the remainder of his term, he will need a positive result from his court hearing on Wednesday to rescind his guilty plea.  Meanwhile, Craig made his return to the Senate this past week for the first time since his scandal broke.  Headlines included: "GOP Supporters Are Hard to Find on Craig's List" and "Craig shunned on return to Senate." Quite a stark contrast from the "thunderous applause" David Vitter received when he made his return to the Senate Republican cloakroom following his scandal.  Why the different reactions, do you think?

Maine: The Bangor Daily News finally highlighted the fact that Susan Collins is breaking her self-imposed two-term-limit pledge (a pledge she made during her first run in 1996 and reiterated in her re-election run in 2002), but aggrivatingly allowed Collins' broken promise to Maine voters to be framed as a campaign attack from Democrats rather than an incontrovertible fact.  (All the while, the Bangor Daily News is establishing a troubling double-standard regarding reports on Collins' campaign versus Tom Allen's campaign.)  What's doubly frustrating is that, while Susan Collins is accused of using taxpayer-funded Senate resources and personnel for her political campaign purposes, she still has her Senate office spokeswoman, Jen Burita, responding to these political campaign questions rather than, crazy as it sounds, campaign staff not on her Senate payroll.

In other news, Collins is pretty angry with Olympia Snowe over the vote to reinstate habeas corpus.  You see, Collins happily voted against the rule of law and due process.  However, Snowe voted differently, opting to reinstate habeas corpus, thereby not giving Collins much needed political cover.  Collins is mad that she didn't get a heads up (as though she might have voted differently had she known how Snowe would vote).  Once again, Susan Collins demonstrates that she is the antithesis of leadership and political courage.  Finally, we get a reminder that, back in March, Susan Collins demanded "significant results" in Iraq by Fall.  Well, Fall is now here; but, while we see Tom Allen and Olympia Snowe working to bring the troops home safely, Susan Collins continues to back George W. Bush's stay-the-course policy.

New Mexico: Reports have it that the Senate Ethics Committee has "stepped up its probe of Pete Domenici" noting that "the six-month preliminary investigation into Domenici has turned up enough evidence to open a formal, public investigation into the New Mexico senator, having determined that Domenici acted inappropriately and that he may have violated Senate Ethics rules" when he called former U.S. Attorney David Iglesias to inquire about the status of a public corruption probe.

Virginia: The latest Survey USA poll sees Mark Warner beating all opponents by landslide margins: topping Jim Gilmore 60-32, besting Tom Davis 62-27, and even beating George Macaca Allen in a hypothetical match-up 56-37.  We just have to keep reminding ourselves to take nothing for granted.

North Carolina: Public Policy Polling has released its latest polling data (FYI: in PDF format).  In a match-up with no additional information, Elizabeth Dole beats State Representative Grier Martin 45-30 (Dole still can't get to 50% in any poll), but when just a brief, four-sentence description of Martin is given, Martin beats Dole 47-40, illustrating Martin's high potential.  Further, the PPP results found that Dole's approve-disapprove stands at a highly vulnerable 45-40 and that former UNC basketball coach Dean Smith even matches up well against Dole, starting out down only 41-35.

Kentucky: The Lexington Herald-Leader released new poll numbers on Mitch McConnell, including a sub-50% approve-disapprove of 47-44 and a stark 38-55 approve-disapprove regarding McConnell's position on Iraq. Also found is a gaping George W. Bush approve-disapprove of 37-61, and only 32% of Kentuckians saying the war was worth it compared with 57% who feel Bush's Iraq War "wasn't worth the loss of life and expense." So, when Mitch McConnell goes on national television and falsely claims that his constituents "overwhelmingly" support Bush's Iraq War, you know he's lying.  You'll also know he's lying when he offers Iraqis their "last chance" to "save their country." On Iraq, McConnell will ultimately do precisely what George W. Bush wants him to do.

Texas: A Rasmussen Reports poll offers baseline numbers, seeing John Cornyn leading State Representative and Lieutenant Colonel Rick Noriega 53-30 and leading attorney Mikal Watts 52-28.  Not a bad starting point with Cornyn just a bit over 50% and with two guys that a vast majority of Texans probably have never heard of before at about 30%.

Colorado: Backwards Bob Schaffer's polling has him only two points behind Mark Udall in a three-way race with a Green Party candidate getting 7%.  Given that third party candidates in the 2004 CO-Sen race, the 2004 Presidential race in Colorado, and the 2006 CO-Gov race all never topped 1%, it gives the impression that Schaffer's poll could be well off-the-mark and should be taken with a mammoth grain of salt, even for partisan polling.

New Hampshire: StopSununu.com has officially launched, loaded with background information on Sprintin' John Sununu on issues from Iraq to health care and much, much more.  Visit regularly.  Also, Katrina Swett bowed out of the Senate race, joining Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand in endorsing popular former Governor Jeanne Shaheen.  Further, a pair of polls from Rasmussen and ARG were released this week showing Shaheen again beating Sununu, though by more realistic margins than the drubbings earlier polls had Shaheen giving Sununu.  With Shaheen having just formally entered the race, these numbers could be considered baselines.

Georgia: An Insider Advantage poll put Spineless Saxby Chambliss' approve-disapprove at 39-29, while a Rasmussen Reports poll put it at 58-30, though even the Rasmussen poll had one Democratic challenger holding Chambliss to under 50 points.

For daily news and updates on the U.S. Senate races around the country in 2008, check out Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.

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Senate 2008 Guru's Week in the Senate Races

This past week in the Senate races was a good week for Democrats and a bad week for Republicans.  Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenberg, Dick Morris, Bob Novak, the New York Times, the Christian Science Monitor, and the Politico all said so.  Even conservative blog Redstate has already completely written off two Senate races.  That may be why Republicans are working as hard as they are to lower expectations for the 2008 Senate races.

This past week wasn't just good for Democrats and bad for Republicans, though. It was the most pivotal week yet in the 2008 election cycle as far as Senate races are concerned.  Why?  You already know why.  Three reasons: 1) Chuck Hagel formally announced his retirement, putting Nebraska very much in play; 2) popular former Governor Mark Warner entered Virginia's Senate race, taking Virginia out of play by many pundits' measures; and, 3) popular former Governor Jeanne Shaheen entered New Hampshire's Senate race, taking New Hampshire out of play by some measures.  The DSCC unveiled more accomplished recruiting just this past week than the NRSC has demonstrated so far this entire cycle.

And it's not just the words of pundits that place Virginia and New Hampshire into many "Likely Democratic Pick-Up" columns.  Poll numbers more than back up those claims.  In Virginia, a September Rasmussen Reports poll has Mark Warner beating former Gov. Jim Gilmore 54-34 and beating Rep. Tom Davis 57-30.  Similarly, a July University of New Hampshire poll has Jeanne Shaheen beating John Sununu 54-38, and a July Concord Monitor poll has Shaheen beating Sununu 56-34.  Suffice it to say, these are not small margins of victory.  All we're waiting on now is polling out of Nebraska matching up former Senator Bob Kerrey and former Gov. Mike Johanns.

While the NRSC is left licking its wounds, there was much afoot in the Senate races this week:

Nebraska: Chuck Hagel's retirement led CQPolitics to change its Nebraska Senate rating from "Safe Republican" to "Leans Republican" - expect another adjustment if/when former Senator Bob Kerrey or Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey enters the race.  Meanwhile, Republican former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub is expected to join the race tomorrow.  As he is criticized for being "too aggressive and divisive," I wholeheartedly welcome him to the GOP primary.  Also, current Gov. Dave Heineman "fully expects" former Gov. Mike Johanns to enter the race.  I expect it, too; I mean, the NE-GOP gushes over Johanns and just named their state headquarters after him!  To stave off the notion that Johanns would steamroll him in a primary, state Attorney General Jon Bruning released poll numbers showing him running only nine points behind Johanns in a hypothetical primary.

Virginia: Mark Warner's entry led CQPolitics to change its Virginia Senate rating from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Democratic." Some in the VA-GOP consider Davis not conservative enough and Gilmore unelectable, leading to a search for another Republican to face Mark Warner.  Some hope that GOP Rep. Eric Cantor will consider a bid.  However, they may wind up with conservative pundit Pat Buchanan.

New Hampshire: With Jeanne Shaheen's entry, one of the only unknowns was what the rest of the Democratic field would do.  Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand kept his pledge and withdrew from the race, immediately endorsing Shaheen.  Had Shaheen not entered the race, I do believe that Marchand would have gone on to win the primary and beat Sununu, so I hope he maintains his Senatorial aspirations, what with Republican Judd Gregg up for re-election in 2010.  Jay Buckey has made it clear that he will remain in the primary.  "Liebercrat" Katrina Swett's plans remain a question mark.

Minnesota: Speaking of poll numbers, back in March, Rasmussen Reports found that Norm Coleman led then-recently announced Senate candidate Al Franken by 10 points, 46-36.  Well, the latest Rasmussen numbers see the lead cut in half, to 46-41, with Coleman leading Mike Ciresi by a similar 46-42.  What's also very notable is how Franken's approval has shot up. In March, he stood at 39-46. Now, he's at 46-47. Clearly, he has to get those disapprovals down. But undecideds on Franken are obviously finding him favorable for his approval to go from 39 to 46.  A good sign indeed.  Meanwhile, it doesn't help Norm Coleman's case to Minnesota voters that he would be content staying in Iraq until 2010 before half of the troops, much less all of them, are brought home.

Alaska: Two more shoes dropped this week in the ongoing Ted Stevens corruption investigations.  First, in the corruption trial of former Alaska Speaker Peter Kott, Stevens was named in a recording of two oil contracters as a "powerful ally" who could build support for a "dirty deal" to keep Alaska oil taxes low.  Then, ex-VECO CEO Bill Allen admitted in court that he had his employees "work several months" on Stevens' home renovations and that the work was paid for out of a $400,000 pool used specifically to bribe legislators.  Stevens, of course, had no comment in his own defense.  I can't fathom how Stevens makes it to Christmas without being indicted for something.

Maine: Speaking of illicit activities, Susan Collins is finally taking heat in the Maine media for inappropriately using taxpayer-funded Senate resources for political purposes.  We know that Collins' Senate staff has used their Senate computers to update Collins' Wikipedia profile to appear more politically palatable. And we know that Collins' taxpayer-funded Senate Chief of Staff has been quarterbacking her political battles with Maine Democrats. It seems pretty clear that Senate resources are being used by the Collins camp for political purposes. Sounds like we need a Senate Ethics investigation to formally determine if Collins is breaking the rules.

Colorado: Tricky Dick Wadhams demonstrates again how terrible he is at handling a political crisis.  Wadhams was a top adviser of George Allen's during the notorious "Macaca" incident; we all know how well they handled that.  Then, as head of the CO-GOP and de facto adviser to Backwards Bob Schaffer's Senate campaign, his early ridiculous reaction to Schaffer's ethics scandal helped propel the story in the local media rather than silence it.  And now, Wadhams is getting very up-in-arms over the entry into the CO-GOP Senate primary of a relatively unknown county commissioner.  The commissioner, Wayne Wolf, wants to run a positive, issue-focused campaign.  Let's see how Wadhams and Schaffer unnecessarily flip out and go negative.

Oregon: John Frohnmayer, a Bush 41 appointee and brother of Republican former state AG Dave Frohnmayer, has formally announced his entry into the 2008 Senate race as an independent.  While his resume may suggest that he'd take more votes from Republicans, early numbers say he acts more as a spoiler to Democrats.

Kansas: With Democratic six-term former Congressman Jim Slattery considering a challenge to the potentially vulnerable Republican Bush-rubber-stamp Pat Roberts, I offered a profile of Slattery's background to acquaint the netroots with him.  Take a look.

Tennessee: Speaking of states where the competitivity map can be expanded, Democratic businessman and gubernatorial son Mike McWherter is expected to enter the 2008 Senate race against Lamar! in the next couple weeks.  His father was a very popular Governor; if the McWherter name still has some juice while Mike establishes himself in his own right, we could see a race here.

Rhode Island: Former Senator Lincoln Chafee is no longer a Republican.  Discuss.

North Carolina: Need another reason why Elizabeth Dole will lose in 2008?  Her internal polling has her approve-disapprove at a delusional 64-23.  Last November, Survey USA put her approve-disapprove at 52-40.  And, last month, Public Policy Polling put her approve-disapprove at a similar 48-41.  If Dole wants to embarrass herself by publicizing the delusion that her approve-disapprove is a laughable 64-23, I say "Be my guest, Liddy."

Louisiana: One of David (I quite honestly typed "John" and had to delete it - Freudian mis-type, I guess) Vitter's prostitutes passed a lie detector test this week.  It turns out that she was seeing Vitter two or three times a week for four months, and that records show that she wasn't even the same prostitute as the one(s) Vitter saw via the DC Madam.  The prostitute also shared some choice nuggests about Vitter, including that Vitter and his wife were trying to conceive another child while he was cheating on his wife with the prostitute.  And here are your Republican family values.  At the very least, Vitter still has yet to be fully honest with his constituents about the whole affair and his chronic patronage of prostitutes. Is it too much to ask that the Louisiana press maybe follow up with Vitter about it?

South Carolina: Larry Craig's scandal has renewed interest among some in the South Carolina media regarding whether or not Lindsey Graham is gay.  Is it fair game for the media to inquire about a public official's private life?  I wondered about this earlier this week and figured that if the legislator is in favor of privacy (i.e. supports of legislation that prohibits the government or a commanding officer or a prospective boss from making judgements based on sexual orientation), then it is not fair game.  However, if the legislator opposes privacy (i.e. supports allowing discrimination based on sexual orientation - as Lindsey Graham has), then it would be hypocritical for the public official to proclaim his own private life off limits, since he is happy to legislate others' private lives.  I conclude that I don't care that if Lindsey Graham is gay.  Nobody should.  I do, however, care that he is may be a hypocrite.  And I very much care that he is legislating discrimination.

Idaho: Speaking of Larry Craig (as we should whenever talking about David Vitter, Lindsey Graham, or most any other Senate Republican), he will have his day in court regarding the rescinding of his guilty plea.  His court date is September 26 at 1:30pm.  He needs a favorable outcome here if he is to retain any hope of not resigning.  Meanwhile, Gov. Butch Otter has declared that if an appointment is needed, he will not appoint a placeholder; rather, he will appoint someone who intends to run for a full term next year.

For daily news and updates on the U.S. Senate races around the country in 2008, check out Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.

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Senate 2008 Guru's Week in the Senate Races

Things are not looking too good for Senate Republicans lately.  The GOP is just getting older and more conservative, which may contribute to Democrats beating Republicans 50-32 in a generic congressional ballot, the 18-point lead almost doubling last month's 10-point lead.  NRSC Chair John Ensign assures us that things aren't really that bad:

"If you scratch the surface, things don't look necessarily that good," he said. "But when you get below the surface, things aren't nearly as bad as what they could be."

Exactly how bad things are for Senate Republicans could be shaped heavily by events in September.  The following numerous decisions will (likely) come to pass before the end of this month:

  • Tomorrow, Nevada's Nebraska's (duh - long day) Chuck Hagel is expected to announce his retirement.  A decision from former Senator Bob Kerrey on a 2008 Senate bid could come soon after.  In fact, the Nebraska GOP has already started very lamely attacking Kerrey's record in preparation for a Senate bid.
  • Later this week, popular former Virginia Governor Mark Warner is expected to announce a decision about whether or not to succeed - er, campaign to succeed - retiring John Warner in the Senate.  Numerous Virginia political insiders expect that Mark Warner will run for Senate.
  • Over in Oregon, former NEA Chairman John Frohnmayer is expected to enter the 2008 OR-Sen race as an independent candidate.  It is unclear who his candidacy would harm more, Republican Gordon Smith or the eventual Democratic nominee, but accurately refering to Frohnmayer as a George Bush appointee and the brother of Republican former state Attorney General Dave Frohnmayer is a good start.
  • According to popular former New Hampshire Governor Jeanne Shaheen's de facto spokesman, her husband Bill, a decision on a Senate bid should come by the end of the month.
  • Glancing over at the circus in Idaho, should Larry Craig resign at the end of the month as expected, Governor Butch Otter will have to make an appointment to fill the remainder of the term.  Republican Rep. Mike Simpson says that he does not want the job, noting a personal distaste for Mitch McConnell.  While Lt. Gov. Jim Risch is considered the front-runner for the appointment, so many Idaho Republicans are interested in the seat that Gov. Butch Otter is open to appointing a place-holder who will serve until the end of the term but not run for the seat in his or her own right in 2008.  At this point, I'd put it at 50-50 between Otter appointing Risch vs. appointing a place-holder.  Almost comically, the NRSC web site's News page lacks any mention of or official comment on the Craig scandal.

    Further, possible-to-likely Senate candidates are emerging in traditionally red states:

  • In North Carolina, State Representative and Afghanistan War veteran Grier Martin is closing in on a decision regarding a Senate bid.  Says The Independent Weekly's Bob Geary, "There was no mistaking the new bounce in his tone: He wants to run. And he's much closer to doing it." Last Tuesday, I offered an analysis of the potential of a Martin-Dole match-up.
  • In Tennessee, businessman and gubernatorial son Mike McWherter is making the rounds and sounding like he is ready to take on Lamar Alexander.  If/when McWherter officially enters, other Democrats considering a bid have already said that they would defer to McWherter and support his candidacy.
  • In Kansas, six-term former Congressman Jim Slattery has announced that he is considering a challenge to Pat Roberts.  I have long thought that Kansas could be the sleeper competitive Senate race of the 2008 cycle, for reasons ranging from Roberts' unintimidating approval ratings to Roberts' failures and scandals while Chairing the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.
  • In South Carolina, former State Senator Tom Turnipseed is considering a Senate run, as well.

    Indeed, September could prove a very decisive month in terms of shaping the 2008 Senate races.  This week also saw a plethora of interesting news around the country:

    South Dakota: Senator Tim Johnson returned to the Senate floor and made his first roll call vote in almost nine months.  Badlands Blue has the video of his return, including a nearly-minute-long standing ovation before Johnson spoke and another minute of standing ovation after Senator Johnson's comments.  Truly uplifting.
    Delaware: Senator Joe Biden is definitely moving forward with Senate re-election plans amid his Presidential campaign.
    Texas: Though a majority of Democratic primary voters are still undecided, State Representative and Lieutenant Colonel Rick Noriega currently has about double the support of attorney Mikal Watts, 27-14.  Attorney Emil Reichstadt, who may soon exit the race, clocks in at 6%.  Noriega also recently scored the support of Texas' firefighters.
    New Hampshire and Minnesota: In case anyone thought otherwise, both Sprintin' John Sununu and Smilin' Norm Coleman are still George W. Bush's lapdogs on Iraq.
    Alaska: Ted Stevens appears to be both a climatologist and a sociopath.  All of that insane behavior may just be to deflect attention from his latest earmark scandal.
    Colorado: Backwards Bob Schaffer's own poll numbers see him losing to Democratic Congressman Mark Udall by more than the margin of error.  Schaffer's camp is trying to spin this as a good thing!  I can't wait for the non-partisan numbers to come out.
    Louisiana: The candidate filing period for 2007 passed this week in Louisiana, and Republican state Treasurer John N. Kennedy is running unopposed for re-election while looking ahead to a possible 2008 Senate challenge to Senator Mary Landrieu.  Given Treasurer Kennedy's chronically mercurial career goals, hopefully someone in the Louisiana media can get him to answer questions like "If re-elected to the Treasurer's office, do you pledge to serve out your full term?" and "Why should the voters of Louisiana re-elect you if you're just going to run for another office in a few months?" So far, all that has gone on the record is:

    Kennedy declined to speculate on his political future, and would not commit to serving out his entire four-year term.

    "I've never made promises about things in the future that I can't control," Kennedy said, adding that he wanted to savor re-election before looking ahead.

    Hey, John, running for Senate isn't an involuntary action like sneezing or yawning - you do actually have control over whether or not you run for Senate. Totally disingenuous.
    Virginia: A VA-GOP Senate primary between Tom Davis and Jim Gilmore could get very ugly.  The Club for Growth is already attacking Tom Davis' economic record.  Meanwhile, Davis' campaign has apparently hired adviser Chris LaCivita, whose claims to fame include advising and producing commercials for the notorious Swift Boat Veterans and serving as direct supervisor to the man responsible for the infamous New Hampshire phone jamming scandal.  This could be a historically ugly primary.
    Kentucky: The Public Campaign Action Fund released an ad highlighting Mitch McConnell's record supporting the use of taxpayer dollars to fund iPod-like music players for Afghani tribesman but opposing body armor for our troops.  (Yes, you read that right; Ditch Mitch KY explains.  It of course involves a former McConnell staffer becoming a lobbyist, and McConnell securing an earmark for the clients of his former staffer while the lobbyist/former staffer raises thousands of dollars for McConnell.)  So what does McConnell do?  He uses his contacts and clout to get the ad pulled from cable stations!  In a completely unrelated note, Dictionary.com defines "fascism" as "forcibly suppressing opposition and criticism."
    Arizona: Looking ahead to 2010, popular-but-term-limited Governor Janet Napolitano has established a federal political action committee, seen as an early step toward a 2010 Senate bid.  Meanwhile, early polling sees Governor Napolitano handily defeating John McCain by double digits in a hypothetical 2010 Senate match-up, 47-36.

    Some parting notes:

  • The DSCC announced a winner in its bumper sticker slogan contest.  I really like it - check it out.
  • When George W. Bush took office, the National Debt stood at less than $5.75 trillion.  Last week, the National Debt crossed the $9 trillion mark.  In other words, the National Debt has gone up $3.25 trillion, more than 56%, on George W. Bush's watch of just over six-and-a-half years. Just another indicator of the failure of Bush's policies.
  • Some enterprising soul turned my catalog of the Republican Culture of Corruption: 2007 So Far into a YouTube video.  I truthfully have no idea who did it, but it really is the Citizen Kane of YouTube videos:

    For daily news and updates on the U.S. Senate races around the country in 2008, check out Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.

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  • Senate 2008 Guru's Week in the Senate Races

    I hope you all had a safe and restful Labor Day Weekend.  Others, like Larry Craig, were not so lucky.  Family Research Council President Tony Perkins recently noted of Republicans' numerous ethics scandals:

    "Exit polls show that was the No. 1 factor in depressing Republican enthusiasm," Mr. Perkins said in an interview Tuesday. "There is an expectation that leaders who espouse family values will live by those values. And while the values voters don't demand perfection, I do believe they want leaders with integrity."

    Well, the Republican Culture of Corruption that played a major role in 2006 is alive and well in 2008.  And this week offered an illustration of the gestation period of a scandal from breaking news to resignation speech in about five days.

    Idaho: Late afternoon on Monday, Roll Call broke the story of Senator Larry Craig's June arrest for "lewd conduct" in the men's room of a Minnesota airport.  By Monday evening, Craig had released the first of what would be three public statements, ham-handedly trying to explain the situation.  Then, on Tuesday, Craig made his second statement at a press event, not too dissimilar from prostitute-consorting David Vitter's press conference from two months ago, wife by his side and blaming the media for his ills.  Having done absolutely nothing to rebuke Vitter, Pete Domenici, Ted Stevens, or Lisa Murkowski for their actions in the scandals and investigations in which they find themselves, Republican Senate "leadership"acted quickly, by Tuesday evening, to chastise Craig.  (More on the double-standard later.)  By Thursday morning, rank-and-file Republicans began calling for Craig's resignation, and Craig has given up his committee seats.  And then, Thursday afternoon came the bombshell: audio of Craig's post-arrest interview hit the Tubes.  It was damning; and, after that, it was only a matter of time.  Friday offered much speculation; and, Saturday offered Craig's third of three statements: the resignation speech.

    While Idaho Governor Butch Otter has not revealed who he will appoint to fill the vacancy when it arrives (or even when he will make such a decision), speculation has focused on Lt. Gov. Jim Risch, who deferred to Otter when both were considering gubernatorial bids, and who was chomping at the bit for Larry Craig to announce a retirement earlier in the year so that he could run for Senate.  The DSCC has made it quite clear that they will commit the necessary resources toward making Idaho's Senate race competitive.  Meanwhile, NRSC Chairman John Ensign digs himself a hole as he explains the difference in GOP reactions to the Larry Craig scandal and the David Vitter scandal:

    Sen. John Ensign, R-Nev., the Senate Republican campaign chairman, said Craig "admitted guilt. That is a big difference between being accused of something and actually admitting guilt."

    "David Vitter never did that. Larry Craig did," continued Ensign on ABC's "This Week" program.

    Put aside for a moment that David Vitter held a press conference acknowledging his indiscretions.  (And if Ensign contends that Vitter never explicitly admitted that he solicited prostitutes, I think the Washington DC and Louisiana media should call Vitter's office every day for as long as it takes seeking a clarification.)  If all Vitter did to deserve a giant round of "thunderous applause" from his Senate Republican colleagues upon his return from hiding after the breaking of his scandal was keep his chronic indiscretion under wraps long enough for the statute of limitations to expire on the crime he committed (yes, soliciting prostitutes is a crime in both Washington DC and Louisiana), then Senate Republicans are devoid of any character whatsoever.  Fortunately for the Senate GOP, the rationale circulating around the blogosphere (but barely permeating into the mainstream media) is one of two other possibilities: either rank partisanship or rabid homophobia.

    Pick your poison.  Rationale One: With Vitter, we see a Louisiana that, for now, has a Democratic Governor who could pick a Democrat to replace Vitter if he resigned.  Idaho's Republican Governor, however, ensures that the Idaho seat stays in GOP hands when Craig resigns.  Convenient.  Rationale Two: With Vitter, we saw a "family values" Republican who admitted to cheating on his wife with a female prostitute.  It's only heterosexual infidelity, so it's fine.  Meanwhile, with Craig, we saw a "family values" Republican, though married, attempting to score a consensual sexual partner who was male.  How dare he?!  (Read: Ewww, that's gay.)  As Republicans try to use this one example of the GOP patrolling their own and weeding out those who commit misdeeds, expect Democrats to readily shoot back numerous examples of corrupt and scandalous Republicans gone unchecked, starting with David Vitter.

    Virginia: In almost any other week, the retirement of John Warner would have been the top story.  Not this week.  But, yes, after what will be three decades in the U.S. Senate, the octogenarian Warner will be hanging it up.  While Democrats anxiously await an announcement from popular former Governor Mark Warner, Republicans see a primary looming between Rep. Tom Davis and former Governor Jim Gilmore, which Real Clear Politics suggests"could be the bloodiest primary in the nation." It is worth noting that the DSCC showed considerable class in withholding politics from the news cycle of Warner's retirement announcement; Tom Davis' confidantes did not want to extend Warner the same courtesy.

    South Dakota: As with Virginia, in almost any other week, the inspirational return to the public eye of a Senator struck with a near-fatal brain injury would have been the top story.  Senator Tim Johnson gave a thank you speech to South Dakotans on Tuesday addressed his condition, his recovery, and the road ahead with humor, humility, gratitude, and perseverance.  He also declared that he intends to seek re-election to the Senate in 2008.  Further, Senator Johnson will return to the Senate on Wednesday.  It is not exaggeration when I say "inspirational."

    Louisiana: Lest people forgot about this in the midst of the Craig scandal, the Warner retirement, and the Johnson comeback, Louisiana had quite the to-do on Monday.  Six weeks after Louisiana's highest ranking elected Republican, Senator David Vitter, made it clear that he cheated on his wife with prostitutes, the state's Treasurer, John N. Kennedy, declared that, "I have concluded that the Republican Party is the party that best reflects my values today." Some great values, huh? Treasurer Kennedy is now a Republican, which heightens expectations that he will challenge Senator Mary Landrieu in 2008. Hopefully Democrats will run a credible candidate for Treasurer against Kennedy later this year, if only to get him on the record with answers to questions like "If re-elected, do you promise Louisiana voters to serve your full term?" and "If you're just going to run for another office next year, why should voters re-elect you to this office this year?" Why is that particularly important?  Because Treasurer Kennedy has demonstrated very mercurial career goals, clearly illustrating that he is always happy to junk his current job for the next rung up on the ladder.

    Oregon: Speaker Jeff Merkley had quite a week, rolling out Veterans for Merkley (featuring a very distinguished trio at the helm) and, in honor of Labor Day, Labor Democrats for Merkley.  Regarding the other side of the aisle, the Oregon Democratic Party laid out why Gordon Smith is bad for veterans.  StopGordonSmith.com also has a fun feature, Smith vs. Smith, highlighting Gordon Smith's numerous notable flip-flops in rhetoric and votes.

    Tennessee: TN-Dems may avoid a Senate primary as two possible candidates have said that they would step aside if businessman and gubernatorial son Mike McWherter moved forward with his candidacy, suggesting that McWherter is serious about giving Lamar Alexander a run for his money.

    Nebraska: With all of the press former Senator Bob Kerrey is getting recently as he considers a 2008 Senate campaign, one would think that he is really leaning toward giving it a go.

    Minnesota: Norm Coleman's anti-tax zealot base is peeved at him for not being enough of a zealot.  Meanwhile, Nobel Laureate Dr. Peter Agre withdrew from consideration for the Democratic Senate primary.  Also, MN Blue offers a handy comparison of the Democratic candidates, looking at their positions on issues and comparing endorsements.

    North Carolina: State Representative and veteran of the War in Afghanistan Grier Martin continues to give careful consideration to a 2008 Senate challenge to the vulnerable Elizabeth Dole. Given his record of service in the state Legislature and the military, as well as the promise shown by early poll numbers, I hope he does opt for a bid.  Blue NC concurs.

    Oklahoma: Jim "In Denial" Inhofe says that he was "kind of excited" by the attacks in Iraq on the airplane carrying himself, Senators Mel Martinez and Richard Shelby, and Congressman Bud Cramer. The guy is an absolute lunatic.

    Alabama: The first poll matching up Republican Bush rubber stamp Jeff Sessions and Democratic State Senator Vivian Figures shows Sessions with a 59-37 lead.  Given the massive name ID advantage Sessions must currently enjoy and the fact that Sessions currently has the support of 30% of Democrats, this actually isn't terrible for Figures. Once she raises her name ID, ropes back in some of the Democrats who don't yet know there is an alternative to Sessions, and (hopefully) effectively ties Sessions to numerous failed Bush policies (even in Alabama, Bush has a net negative approval rating), we could see this deficit shrink to low-double-digits in short order.

    New Mexico: While Pete Domenici and George W. Bush were sitting in a tree, F-U-N-D-R-A-I-S-I-N-G, large scale protests were organized against Domenici, Bush, and Bush's Iraq War.  After all, Domenici is raising his campaign bankroll thanks to a visit by a man whose approve-disapprove in New Mexico stands at an abysmal 32-67.  (You read that right: 32-67.)

    Kentucky: As the Iraq protest wave found its way to Mitch McConnell's neck of the woods, McConnell lamely pleaded that "there's a good chance that in September we'll go in a different direction" in Iraq.  Yeah, I don't believe anything McConnell says either.  Meanwhile, speculation that former KY-GOP gubernatorial nominee Larry Forgy might challenge McConnell in a 2008 GOP Senate primary intensified as it was revealed that Forgy has close ties to none other than Senator Majority Leader Harry Reid.  Small world.

    South Carolina: Hotline On Call's Quote of the Day last week:

    You know what my goal is? Not for universal agreement. But for a little bit of respect."
      -- Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), being heckled on immigration, Columbia State, 8/28

    I suppose that Graham still isn't feeling the love from his base.

    Finally, Sunday's Washington Post featured an article entitled "GOP Faces Growing Peril in 2008 Races: Senate Prospects Dimming" that included some magically delicious quotes:

    A Senate electoral playing field that was already wide open for 2008 has become considerably more perilous for Republicans with the retirement of Sen. John W. Warner (R-Va.) and the resignation of scandal-scarred Sen. Larry E. Craig (R-Idaho). ...

    "It's always darkest right before you get clobbered over the head with a pipe wrench. But then it actually does get darker," said a GOP pollster who insisted on anonymity in order to speak candidly. ...

    "About the only safe Republican Senate seats in '08 are the ones that aren't on the ballot," a GOP operative with extensive experience in Senate races said. "I don't see even the rosiest scenario where we don't end up losing more seats."

    Doesn't it just make you feel all tingly inside?

    For daily news and updates on the U.S. Senate races around the country in 2008, check out Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.

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