There is much debate over whether primaries help or hurt the eventual nominee toward winning the general election.  I'm typically of the opinion that, for the purposes of practical political benefit (small-d democratic ideals aside), primaries are only helpful in two cases: first, when the primary opponents need to raise their name identification; and, second, when the primary combatants are completely civil and avoid character attacks on each other, instead jointly turning their offensive aim toward the opposing Party.  That's why the MN-Sen Dem primary is good for Democrats, the NM-Sen GOP primary is bad for Republicans, and the TX-Sen Dem primary could have been good for Democrats.

That said, when there is an incumbent running for re-election or a clear presumptive nominee running for an open seat, an upstart primary opponent can hurt the favorite by forcing the the favorite to deplete financial resources and by testing lines of attack against the expected nominee.  In the 2008 cycle, we see a number of Senate races with such upstart primary opponents, or "ankle biters," challenging Republican incumbents or presumptive nominees.  While it is less than likely that any of these candidates will win their respective primaries in an upset, some of these candidates should be closely followed as they may offer insight into the Achilles' heels of the eventual Republican nominees.  Also, in the case that any of them gain noticeable traction, these upstart "ankle biters" may force the eventual Republican nominees to spend some significant cash.

Much more below the fold.

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There were two big buzz words in the Senate and 2008 Senate races this week: obstructionism and immigration.

A long, long time ago, when the Republicans were in the majority in the Senate, they decried Democrats daring to get in the way of their agenda.  Now that they find themselves in the minority, Republicans are all too happy to hypocritically engage in any and all obstructionist maneuvering they can conjure up on a whole host of issues from lower prescription drug prices to workers' rights and much, much more.

Well, Democratic leadership has taken notice and began an offensive with this powerful video taking aim at those hypocritical, obstructionist McConnell Republicans:

The 2008 election will be a referendum on George W. Bush and a referendum on Iraq, but it can also be a referendum on a progressive, American agenda that Democrats are trying to advance and Republicans are trying to, well, obstruct.  Any Democrat running for Senate can point to this agenda and say, "A vote for me is a vote for progress, a vote for affordable health care, a safer America, a fairer, stronger economy.  A vote for my opponent is a vote against progress, a vote to obstruct this agenda." Pretty simple.

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On Tuesday, the Wyoming Republican Party State Central Committee narrowed down the list of candidates from which Democratic governor Dave Freudenthal must choose a replacement for late Republican Senator Craig Thomas from an original 28 to a final three. The Casper Star Tribune blogged the committee vote process here.

By state law, Governor Freudenthal must fill the seat by Monday, June 25. He has requested meetings with the three candidates to be held by this afternoon. Whoever Freudenthal chooses will serve in the senate until a special election next year to determine who will serve out the remainder of Thomas's term, which is up in 2012.

The final list includes former state Republican Party Chairman and Department of Justice attorney Tom Sansonetti (who had the most votes with 58), state senator Dr. John Barrasso (56 votes), and former state Treasurer and legislator Cynthia Lummis (44 votes.)

More on these would-be senators over the flip (a hint: one of them has an Abramoff connection...)

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It may be a little hasty and perhaps even ghoulish to talk about the politics surrounding the death of Wyoming Republican Senator Craig Thomas, but given the fact that a replacement for Thomas will be chosen in the next two to three weeks and the political media are already covering the potential race for his successor, I think it's worth passing on this piece of information first brought to us by Chuck Todd.

The death of GOP Sen. Craig Thomas will not affect the balance of power in the Senate. Wyoming bars a governor from appointing someone of the opposite party to replace a deceased lawmaker. The state GOP will select three potential replacements and submit those names to Gov. Dave Freudenthal (D), who will then choose one for the vacancy. The entire process will happen in the next 15-20 days. A special election to fill the remainder of Thomas' term will be held in November 2008. As with any death of an elected official, the politics of the appointment process will be something to watch. Freudenthal is likely the best candidate Democrats could come up with to run in the special election, so he may be appointing a future political opponent. In years past, there has been idle speculation of Lynne Cheney's interest in running for office. Don't be surprised if her name pops up at some point in this process.

Cheney is not the only name floating around Republican circles these days. According to Marie Horrigan over at CQ Politics, others include the chairman of the state GOP Fred Parady, former state Treasurer Cynthia Lummis, incumbent Secretary of State Max Maxfield and state Rep. Colin Simpson, whose faher represented Wyoming in the Senate for three terms.

And outside of Freudenthal, who would undoubtedly be a strong candidate for the Democrats even though the state last gave its electoral votes to a Democrat in 1964 and no Democrat has won a Senatorial election in the state since 1970, the Democratic bench in the state is not as shallow as you might think. Specifically, a run by Gary Trauner, who nearly beat incumbent GOP Congresswoman Barbara Cubin last fall despite being outspent and seeing the National Republican Congressional Committee spend nearly a quarter of a million dollars in ads hitting him while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee did not make any independent expenditures on his behalf, could also put this seat in play. And perhaps given the fact that a race for Senate in Wyoming would not cost a whole lot more than a race for the House in the state (in a district that covers the entire state), Trauner should think seriously about running for the upper chamber rather than the lower one.

But getting back to the topic at hand, a Cheney candidacy might not be as good for Republicans as some might believe. As of the last reading by SurveyUSA back in November 2006, when George W. Bush's numbers nationally were significantly higher than they were today, 49 percent of Wyoming adults approved of the job the President was doing while a whopping 48 percent did not (these numbers closely tracked the 48.3 percent to 47.8 percent victory of Cubin over Trauner that year). Dick Cheney does not appear to be terribly popular in the state either; it has been more than a year and a half since SurveyUSA last polled Cheney in Wyoming, but even then, when his ratings nationally were also significantly higher than they are today, just 55 percent of those in his native state approved of the job he was doing as Vice President while 44 percent disapproved.

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That should be our slogan for the next 20 months.

The following people deserve to be defeated in 2008, and here's my advice to Senator Schumer on who can defeat them;

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