Politico reporting:

Ambulances and fire trucks were dispatched to the Northern Virginia home of Sen. Robert Byrd Tuesday morning.

The reason for the emergency call was unclear, but a neighbor of the 91-year-old West Virginia Democrat said several ambulances were outside his residence in McLean, Va.

An officer at the McLean Fire Department said that a unit was dispatched at 9:10 to the address where Byrd lives, but he declined to comment on the substance of the response.

Our thoughts with Sen. Byrd and his family.

More as we hear it...

Update [2009-9-22 11:5:19 by Josh Orton]: Looks like we dodged a bullet:

“Byrd apparently stood up too fast this morning in his home and fell down,” said Jesse Jacobs, a spokesman for the senator. “To err on the side of caution his caregiver called an ambulance. He was taken to the hospital where he is currently being checked out. At this point in time there is no indication that he will be admitted.”

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No, it's not Sunday.  And this isn't the Senate 2008 Guru's Week in the Senate Races.  It's been over nine months since Election Day 2006; and it's less than fifteen months until Election Day 2008.  In other words, the 2008 election cycle is more than one-third over already.  With all of the discussion about vulnerable Republican-held Senate seats taking place, I thought it might be useful to take a look at how the races are shaping up for the twelve Democratic-held Senate seats in 2008.  Soak it in:

So what do we see here?

First and foremost, we see that (unless Tom Latham challenges Tom Harkin or Bobby Jindal unexpectedly loses the LA-Gov race and opts for a Senate bid) Republicans don't have a single top choice challenging a Democratic incumbent.  Keep in mind, this is not a comparison to Democrats, who have had ups and downs with recruiting (though, with 22 Republican-held seats up compared with only 12 Democratic seats up, that is to be expected).  Simply put, I don't know how much time NRSC Chair John Ensign spends recruiting, but if it's more than zero, it may be wasted time.  Certainly, there is still plenty of time for candidates to enter a Senate race, as Senators Claire McCaskill, Sherrod Brown, and Jim Webb will tell you (all officially entered their races after August 2005), but, after this point in the 2006, only one single Republican entered a Senate race: Michigan loser Mike Bouchard.  If 2006 is at all indicative, the NRSC should be just about done recruiting by now, not just starting.

You'll also note two asterisks, in Louisiana and South Dakota.  In Louisiana, statewide elections occur later this year.  While several Republican Congressmen have announced that they will be opting against a 2008 Senate challenge to Mary Landrieu, it is not unreasonable that other potential candidates would wait until after the 2007 state election before making any decisions, particularly in the case of statewide officeholders Secretary of State Jay Dardenne and currently-Democratic Treasurer John N. Kennedy.  In South Dakota, Senator Tim Johnson is, of course, still recuperating from illness.  If he feels able to run for re-election, it is reasonable to assume that he will, and that Gov. Mike Rounds is unlikely to challenge him.  However, if Johnson opts against a re-election bid, that changes the entire dynamic, which could lead to a top-tier battle between Gov. Rounds and possibly Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth.

We also see a lot of previously unheard-of names.  Jeffrey Beattie in Massachusetts and Jon Scott in Rhode Island are both Congressional race losers, I suppose looking for a promotion to losing Senate races.  The announced challengers in Illinois and Iowa are all unknown political entities, charitably considered third-tier opponents.  As it currently stands, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota feature a smattering of second- and third-tier opposition.  Assuming both that Joe Biden drops his Presidential bid and runs for re-election and that Iowa's Republican Congressional delegation all opt to take a pass on a 2008 Senate bid, it is not unreasonable to expect (barring out-of-the blue surprises) that incumbent Democratic Senators will face no more than token opposition in Arkansas, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Rhode Island, and West Virginia.  (At the same time, it wouldn't be wildly shocking if: Tom Latham did enter the race in Iowa; Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land did enter the race in Michigan; Joe Biden did retire from the Senate; and the AR-GOP did find somebody to offer Mark Pryor at least minimal opposition.)

Further, assuming that Senator Tim Johnson is up for a re-election campaign, it is not unreasonable to expect that incumbent Democratic Senators will face no more than second-tier opposition (and thus be strong favorites) in Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota.  Now, I recognize that I'm suggesting that, given a few reasonable caveats, eleven of twelve Democratic Senate seats are fairly to very safe (though it is also, in part, due to the hurting Democrats took in the Senate in 2002, losing close races in Colorado, Georgia, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee, which in turn thinned out Democratic vulnerabilities and created pick-up opportunities for 2008).  That is pretty close to a "best case scenario." But it is also a fairly reasonable scenario.  The catch is that Republicans, wanting to avoid a repeat of 2006 when they failed to turn a single Democratic-held Senate seat (or House seat or Governor's office) Republican, may pour relatively large sums of money into Louisiana once they have a candidate.  With the DSCC trouncing the NRSC in fundraising, Democrats can counteract that, but it could be very expensive.

What do you think?

For daily news and updates on the U.S. Senate races around the country in 2008, check out Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.

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[Cross-posted at my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

A little over two months ago, I took a look at the state of NRSC recruiting in the one open seat (Colorado) and the twelve states with Democratic incumbents, concluding, up to that point in time, that the NRSC was 0-for-13 in recruiting so far.  Keep in mind that we're approaching the dog days of summer, not a heavy recruitment period.  (Note that during June-August of 2005, only five Senate candidates announced, all five of whom were Republican losers.)  So where does the state of NRSC recruitment stand, and what has changed in the last two months?

(Much more below the fold.)

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This cycle is already shaping up to be a difficult one for Senate Republicans, who have to defend twice as many seats as the Democrats, so recruitment troubles are just about the last thing they want to endure. But according to The Hill's Aaron Blake, Senate Republicans were just shot down by the candidate preceived to be their strongest in a state won twice by George W. Bush.

Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) has again passed on a Senate bid and will announce later this year or in early 2008 that she is running for reelection to the House, her spokesman confirmed yesterday.

Republican eyes now turn to Secretary of State Betty Ireland and 2006 Senate nominee John Raese, who faced Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va.) in 1984 and who some say is girding for a rematch.

Capito, a fourth-term House member, has been Republicans' top pick for West Virginia's two Democratic-held Senate seats in the last two cycles. In 2006, she passed on challenging Sen. Robert Byrd (D).

As it stands, she will stick with the House and could face her most serious reelection challenge, as state Sen. John Unger (D) is weighing a run at her seat.

Another Raese candidacy could spell disaster for Republicans, who are in desperate need of at least some opportunities to put Democrats on their heels so that the DSCC cannot invest all of its money in trying to pick up Republican seats this cycle. While Raese ran competitively with Rockefeller during the current Senator's first bid in 1984, picking up a respectable 47.7 percent of the vote, he has since been tarnished as a loser in West Virginia politics, losing a primary challenge to the sitting GOP Governor in 1988 and then getting trounced last cycle. Looking specifically at his race against West Virginia's other Democratic Senator, Robert Byrd, in 2006, Raese spent more than $3 million only to receive about a third of the vote, a remarkably weak showing even given the strength of Byrd and the Democratic tilt of the cycle. Given that Rockefeller is about as entrenched as Byrd and 2008 isn't shaping up to be such a pro-Republican year, it's difficult to envision Raese having a serious shot at winning next year.

Ireland could be another story. I admittedly don't know enough about her to judge if she'd be that much stronger of a candidate than Raese (though I suspect she would be). [Update [2007-5-10 11:53:1 by Jonathan Singer]: Per commenter Ramo, "Ireland won by only 4 points in 2004 in a pseudo-open seat (a 90 year old former Secretary of State ran for his old job). Don't think she has a chance in hell."] That said, Rockefeller comes in to his reelection bid with serious strengths that could potentially overwhelm almost any Republican challenger, having a wealth of experience, name recognition and good will built up from his four terms as Senator and two terms as Governor, as well as a large reserve of personal finances (estimated at an upwards of $100 million), which he has been willing to tap into in close elections in the past.

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