The latest on downballot races:

CA-04: Charlie Brown trails by 709 votes.
MD-01: Kratovil up by 2K votes
VA-05: Periello up by 747 votes
WA-08: Burner down by 5300 votes--trails in King County now.
MN-Sen:  Franken down 239 votes

Mixed news, to be sure, but we'll +21 in the House.

There's more...

Today was primary day in Washington State. Polls closed at 8pm PDT and voters went to the polls to vote in a wacky primary that narrowed the fields of all statewide elections down to the two top vote getters for the November general. So what that means is that we're going to see mini-general proxy election results in both WA-08 between Rep. Dave Reichert and Darcy Burner and in the gubernatorial race between sitting Democratic Governor Christine Gregoire and Republican Dino Rossi.

If you haven't been following Matt Stoller's on the ground coverage over at Open Left you should. Tonight, he's liveblogging results.

You can find them streaming at the WA Secretary of State website HERE.

So far, as of 8:42pm, after Reichert's home county of Pierce County reported, Reichert is ahead of Darcy by just 3 points.

Dave Reichert 47.27
Darcy Burner 44.27

Notably, Reichert can't break 50%, and only barely did so in his home county. The sitting congressman in a low turnout election where the Republicans are the ones motivated to GOTV to avenge Gregoire's narrow win over Rossi can't break 50%. This I think speaks to the enthusiasm gap that Darcy has over Reichert, her excellent GOTV program as well as the fact that she's the only one on the air in the district.

But the numbers can still move as absentee ballots, of which there are many in Washington State, still have yet to be counted. I'll update as results continue to come in.

Update [2008-8-20 0:8:26 by Todd Beeton]:One thing that seems to bode well for Darcy: while the candidates are not listed by party affiliation, they are listed by what party they "prefer" and so far tonight, the "prefers Democratic Party" candidates have a slight majority with 50.03%.

There's more...

Matt Stoller is on the ground up in WA-08 to cover Tuesday's mini-general election between Darcy Burner and Republican incumbent Dave Reichert. The election is actually a primary, but since general election foes Dino Rossi and Gov. Christine Gregoire in the gubernatorial race and Burner and Reichert in the WA-08 race will be on the same ballot on Tuesday, it's the closest thing we have to a preview of November's general election.

The Seattle Times explains.

The purpose of the primary is to winnow the field of candidates in races across the state to two people who will appear on the November ballot.

In most cases, the outcome from Tuesday's vote is in little doubt.

Rossi and Gregoire are shoo-ins for the November ballot because of their name recognition and well-funded campaigns. So are Reichert and Burner in the 8th district.

The Times does warn against reading anything into Tuesday's results.

Although more than a million people are expected to vote, the primary shouldn't be viewed as a trial run for the general election. Experience suggests a large proportion of the voters will be party loyalists. Many independents will sit out the primary.

"That's not a good indicator of the state," said Matt Barreto, co-director of the Washington Poll, a public-opinion survey sponsored by the University of Washington. "Especially in Washington, where the largest identification is independent."

But the fact is, a win is a win and if the unexpected happens -- i.e. Dino Rossi beats Christine Gregoire or Darcy Burner beats Dave Reichert -- the narrative could change, which could impact momentum, fundraising, media coverage, etc. That is why Rossi and Gregoire are pouring millions of dollars into what is expected to be a low turnout primary and it is why Matt Stoller is urging people to do what they can to help GOTV for Darcy on Tuesday.

[Reichert's] staffers don't express any worry about this Tuesday's mini-general election, seeing it as irrelevant.  It's hard to tell if that's because they don't really care how it turns out or if Reichert doesn't have the money to compete, having been outraised for six quarters in a row.  Regardless, the gubernatorial election is going to pull Republicans out on Tuesday, so Reichert doesn't have to worry about GOTV.  At the same time, Darcy's the only one up on TV and she's putting out attractive twelve page mini-magazines with articles targeted at female voters.  Pretty smart stuff.

This Tuesday's blanket primary is pretty significant for the race.  If Darcy wins, she can finally put a win on the board and psychologically change the narrative of the race.  Reichert will have his money cut off as he'll be seen as a loser.  If Tuesday sees a tie or a Reichert lead, the narrative will remain as it is, a toss-up or slight advantage for Reichert.  I don't know if the Obama campaign or outside groups are planning to help Darcy's campaign, but this is a turnout game, so volunteers and GOTV work would be useful right now.

If you're in the area, you can help Darcy GOTV HERE. You can also give to her campaign over at ActBlue.

There's more...

So far this summer, the polling has been pretty consistent in WA-08: Darcy down by 6 in June and July. But that was before her media campaign, which she began today with a great new bio ad up on cable and broadcast TV. They've committed to a solid six-figure ad buy for the week.

From Darcy's e-mail announcing the ad:

Our first TV spot is a sixty-second biographical ad that is intended to introduce me to primary and general election voters, especially the many new voters that we expect as a result of the exciting Presidential election. [...]

We are taking a calculated risk by starting our television campaign this early but we felt we had to act now before the Republican attack machine kicks into gear. In the 2006 campaign, my opponent and his national Republican allies spent millions running a series of nasty smear ads that had just enough effect to help him eke out a narrow victory.

Of course, if people weren't aware of who Darcy was, they got a quick intro on the local news in the wake of her house fire, so I think it's smart for her campaign to build on that media momentum with this ad. Hey, if ya got lemons...

Watch it below (don't mind the lack of a still image, You Tube's acting up again, but the video plays):

To keep the ad on the air, contribute what you can and let Darcy know what you think of the ad HERE.

There's more...

As you may have heard, Darcy Burner's house was destroyed.

And as a candidate, she now has to make a choice with every minute of her time: spend it with family to get things in order, or go back to raising money for her campaign.

Markos issued a challenge: let's get her up to $400,000 across ActBlue and give her some breathing space to spend with he family instead of fundraising.

Says Kos:

One last point: Darcy is a huge netroots sensation because she is truly one of us -- a former Microsoft exec who is a geek at heart, and someone who has been with us on the war and FISA since she first started running in 2005. Some politicians can put up a facade or say the right things for the right audience, but there's no faking it when you've just run out of your burning house, seeing all your worldly possessions go up in flames as you frantically try to ensure your family is safe.

Look at the shirt she was wearing.

She is family.

So let's pitch in and help one of our leaders in a time of need.

Update [2008-7-2 17:21:15 by Todd Beeton]:"It's just stuff."

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