We've been watching Virginia turn more blue for a long time, and no doubt this is an exciting development. Indeed it seems clear that Virginia is, at least right now, the Democrats' best pick up opportunity in the Senate, that the Democrats have a chance to pick up one or two congressional seats in the state in 2008, and that the party is expected to pick up seats in the state legislature this fall. But is Virginia on the map for the Democrats in the presidential election in 2008? Can the Democrats carry the state in a presidential election for the first time since the 1964 landslide? New polling seems to indicate that Virginia might actually be quite ripe territory for the Democrats on the presidential level next fall.

A new SurveyUSA poll shows that Virginia -- a state that hasn't gone Democratic for president since 1964 -- could be a Dem pick-up in 2008, with Republicans winning only one of nine match-ups:

Clinton (D) 50%, Giuliani (R) 44%
Clinton (D) 50%, Thompson (R) 43%
Clinton (D) 53%, Romney (R) 38%
Obama (D) 46%, Giuliani (R) 45%
Thompson (R) 47%, Obama (D) 45%
Obama (D) 50%, Romney (R) 38%
Edwards (D) 48%, Giuliani (R) 43%
Edwards (D) 49%, Thompson (R) 39%
Edwards (D) 52%, Romney (R) 33%

The margin of error is ±4.5%, so few of these leads are beyond the margin. It still says something, though, that polling here could even be close in the first place.

As Eric Kleefeld over at TPM Election Central correctly notes, a number of these matchups are within the margin of error, so even though the Democrats currently appear to hold a lead, such leads may in fact be fleeting. Yet considering the fact that George W. Bush carried Virginia by 8 points in 2004, the fact that the Democrats are within the margin of error in the state in named head-to-head matchups -- let alone leading (albeit within the margin of error) -- augurs extremely well for the party's hopes of regaining the White House in 2008.

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It looks like the continued stumbles of the GOP coupled with the immense popularity of two consecutive Democratic Governors is having an effect on the electorate in Virginia.

A new Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation/Harvard University poll (.pdf) in the field from May 3 through June 3 shows that the commonwealth is looking like an increasingly fertile ground for the Democrats, potentially not only on the presidential level but perhaps also on the senatorial and congressional levels as well.

Let's take a look first at favorability ratings. A decent sized majority of respondents, 55 percent, have a positive view of the Democratic Party nationally while just 40 percent view it negatively. Compare these numbers to those of the Republican Party nationally, which is rated favorably by just 43 percent of respondents, while 53 percent rate it unfavorably. These numbers seem to point to a state that is becoming more blue, at the least, and perhaps even one that is slightly more blue than red.

Now take a look at a subsequent question: Thinking ahead to November 2008, how seriously would you consider voting for (a Democrat, a Republican, an independent; order rotated) candidate for president? Just looking at voters, rather than the entire adult population, 59 percent say they would seriously consider voting for a Democrat and 34 percent would not. Slightly fewer voters, 55 percent, would strongly consider voting for an independent, while 37 percent would not. But a mere 50 percent of Virginia voters would strongly consider voting for a Republican as 44 percent would not. When you look at "very seriously" numbers, the Democrats' advantage over the Republicans is similarly large, 37 percent to 24 percent.

Who the two parties nominate will matter, as will the potential candidacy of an independent. So, too, will the events of the campaign and outside occurrences that will undoubtedly sway the race and voters' minds. That said, the Democrats are coming into 2008 looking to be in a very good position to put states like Virginia and West Virginia, where Hillary Clinton is currently leading in head-to-head matchups against GOP candidates even in Republican polling, on the map. The news from Virginia bodes well, in particular, as Democrats look to potentially pick up another Senate seat from the state and one or more seats in the House by the time the cycle is over.

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