Democratic Congressional Candidates in Virginia: Experience America Needs Right Now

Virginia continues to be a key state in setting the political tone in America. I have believed since 2004 that Virginia is a state that can be slowly turned blue. The elections of 2005 and 2006 support my belief. This year the trend continues as we may well easily win the VA Senate race, and Barack Obama is consistently tied with McCain in this once safe-red state. But the House races also interest me, both because of our chances of winning a few, but also because the Dem candidates seem to be a particularly good bunch. I think we have a shot at winning VA-11, VA-10 and VA-2, and, with a little more effort, maybe even VA-5. And in each case the Democratic Candidate offers experience that America definitely needs after 8 years of Bush mismanagement. Let me give you a rundown of these four candidates. For all of them you can help by donating through my Virginia Act Blue Site or by volunteering through their websites.

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House rankings: The field continues to shift towards Democrats, particularly in New York

In the past 3 months, Democrats have increased their House majority as they picked up a remarkable 3 seats in a series of special elections organized in Illinois's 14th district, Louisiana's 6th district, Mississippi's 1st district. What is particularly remarkable is that all three of these districts leaned heavily Republican; in 2004, George Bush had won them respectively with 55%, 59% and 62%. Each defeat increased the chaos of the Republican caucus as the NRCC started to settle in panic mode. After the loss of MS-01 on May 13th, Tom Cole, the chairman of the NRCC, issued a remarkable statement calling on Republican incumbents to brace for the worse and find individual ways to deal with the onslaught.

And Republicans have reason to fear a second November debacle. First, Republicans are now three more seats away from the majority and it is hard to find a GOP operative willing to suggest their party has any hope of reducing that margin in November. Second, the party continues to be at a significant financial disadvantage while the DCCC has a huge pile of cash that it will use in dozens of districts in the coming months, testing any Republican seat that shows any sign of being vulnerable. While the GOP was able to respond in the special elections, they will not have the money to do the same in the fall and will be forced to make some painful choices.

These rankings are posted on Campaign Diaries.

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Important Primaries in Virginia Tomorrow

Tomorrow, June 10, there are two important primaries in Virginia that deserve progressive netroots attention. Both races feature candidates with strong local and nationalnetroots support.

First, the 11th CD pits Gerry Connolly, who Howie Klein has correctly called"a Zell Miller/Joe Lieberman type Democrat," against Leslie Byrne, a progressive Democrat who is supported by essentially the entire Virginia progressive netroots.

This morning, Jim Webb -- who Leslie Byrne was instrumental in helping during the early days of the "Draft James Webb" movement in 2006 -- wrote the following about tomorrow's primary:

Leslie was one of my earliest supporters in 2006.  She and I share certain fundamental beliefs -- that America's leaders must be accountable to its people, that our economic system must give everyone a fair shot at success, and that our foreign policy choices must be governed by thoughtful strategic goals.  Like me, Leslie was an early warning voice against the war in Iraq.

[...]

During our campaign's toughest moments, Leslie remained loyal to our effort and to the importance of these shared beliefs. And so when she decided to make a bid to return to Congress, I was determined to show her the same loyalty and support.

[...]

The 111th Congress will face considerable obstacles.  Leslie Byrne has the courage and the experience to help us win those fights. I am looking forward to seeing her defend our common principles on the House floor. Please join me in helping Leslie become the next U.S. Representative from the Virginia 11th today.


In contrast, Howie Klein writes the following about Gerry Connolly:
...Connolly's record conforms to the worst stereotypes of the corporate Democrat and threatens to cost the party a long-awaited takeover. Connolly has been mired in questions about his employment with Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), one of the worst of the major defense contractors, his cozy relationship with business developers and his general affinity for what most of us would call pay to play politics.

Connolly's most egregious offenses against the progressive agenda are only recently coming to light, largely due to his own hypocrisy on the Iraq war. Connolly, who was a proud "moderate" until the moment he declared for the House, has taken to touting his anti-war credentials by claiming that he's "been against the Iraq war from the beginning" and that he plans to "hold CEOs criminally accountable for wasting taxpayer's dollars."

So, why is this a problem? Well, it's an issue because Connolly's employer, SAIC, is one of the most secretive defense contractors in the world. Think about that: Connolly works for a war profiteering company that not only cheer-led for Bush's unjustifiable invasion but that makes much of its money by cheating taxpayers.

In short, the 11th CD is an easy choice for progressives, and we strongly urge a vote for Leslie Byrne.

As to the 10th CD, that's another winnable district, with nationally recognized health care expert and strong progressive Judy Feder running against Bush rubber stamp Frank Wolf.  In 2006, Feder gave Wolf the toughest race he's seen in a quarter century.  This time around, Feder has started earlier, is raising more money (already over $1 million, one of the top Democratic challengers in the nation), and is going after Wolf aggressively.   But first she has to get past a primary against "Blue Dog Democrat" Mike Turner tomorrow.  I strongly urge that, if you live in Virginia's 10th CD, you join every U.S. Senator, Congressman, Virginia Delegate, and labor union that has chosen to support a candidate in this race and support Judy Feder for Congress.

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Goodbye Tom Davis

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Via Breaking Blue, Not Larry Sabato already had the story. But now The Examiner is on it, too.

Influential Northern Virginia Rep. Tom Davis will announce his retirement from Congress this week, multiple political sources told The Examiner Monday.

Davis has decided not to seek an eighth term in office, five sources with ties to the Republican congressman or his political allies said. The decision was widely expected after Davis pulled out of a potential U.S. Senate campaign and his wife lost a re-election bid in a Fairfax County district with a similar growing Democratic lean last fall.

The 11th district, which Davis represents, leans about 1 point more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections -- though the outward growth of the DC-area has made the district more and more Democratic-leaning in recent years. In 2005, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Tim Kaine won the 11th 55.7 percent to 42.4 percent (running about 4 points better than he ran statewide), and in 2006, Jim Webb won the district 54.7 percent to 44.2 percent over George Allen (with Webb running about 5 points better than he did statewide). What's more, looking around the country the Democrats already hold six of the 15 districts (40 percent) that lean 1 point towards the GOP, scoring four pickups in such districts in 2006 (Gabrielle Giffords in Arizona, Tim Walz in Minnesota, and John Hall and Mike Arcuri in New York).

Perhaps even more importantly, the Democrats have at least a couple of very good candidates in the district. The Democrats' 2005 Lieutenant Governor nominee Leslie Byrne, who actually preceded Davis in office, is already in the race, and Gerry Connolly, who was reelected last fall as chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, is raising money for a race as well.

Let's still wait until the end of the week or whenever to hear that (or if) Tom Davis makes it 27 open seats that the House Republicans must defend in 2008 -- including 15 in districts that either lean Democratic or tend to lean 6 or less points more Republican than the nation as a whole. But here's to hoping.

Just to add... Byrne carried the district 54.7 percent to 45.2 percent in 2005, running 5.5 percent ahead of her statewide total. Democratic Attorney General nominee Creigh Deeds lost statewide by 323 votes, or 1/100th of a percentage points, but won the 11th district 52.9 percent to 47.0 percent.

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November House rankings: How many more Republican retirements?

Just when the GOP is starting to catch some small breaks in the Senate, the situation in the House is rapidly deteriorating. As many had predicted, a growing number of Republican representatives do not find the prospect of life in the minority appealing and are calling it quits. Unfortunately for Republicans, a large majority of them represent competitive districts. The latest retirement were particularly shocking because they were completely unexpected -- especially Rep. Ferguson's in NJ-07. Democrats have golden opportunities to pick-up all of these seats, especially if the environment continues to favor them. But this also means Republicans will be forced to play defense and will not be able to contest that many Democratic-held seats, no matter how vulnerable they might be.

The full ratings is available here, at Campaign Diaries.

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