It's bad enough for Senate Republicans that they couldn't cajole former Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge to challenge Arlen Specter next year. Now they can't even get Ridge to commit to backing the likely GOP nominee, the ultra conservative Pat Toomey.

Former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge declined to say whether he would vote for Republican Pat Toomey over Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) if the two candidates were pitted against each other in a general election.

"It's called secret ballot," Ridge said on MSNBC's "Hardball," hours after he announced that he would not be running for the Senate himself.

Ridge's unwillingness to say that he would support a Republican nominee against a Democrat underscores the difficulty that Toomey would face in winning over moderate Republicans in a general election.

Here's the video:

The latest polling from Research 2000 finds Toomey trailing all comers on the Democratic side, including the very unknown Joe Torsella, as well as the not well known Congressman Joe Sestak and the obviously better known Arlen Specter. And with the leading moderate Republican in Pennsylvania lukewarm in his support for Toomey, to say the least, this could be a rough battle for the GOP no matter who the Democrats eventually put up.

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For a brief moment in time, it appeared as though the Republicans might be able to escape the 2010 cycle holding the Pennsylvania Senate seat by the skin of their teeth by recruiting former Governor and Bush cabinet secretary Tom Ridge to run for the seat and somehow shepherding him through a GOP primary against the more conservative Pat Toomey. But that no longer appears to be a possibility:

Tom Ridge will not be challenging Pat Toomey for the Republican Senate nomination in Pennsylvania in 2010. In a statement released today, the former governor and Homeland Security chief said, "[a]fter careful consideration and many conversations with friends and family and the leadership of my party, I have decided not to seek the Republican nomination for Senate."

I am enormously grateful for the confidence my party expressed in me, the encouragement and kindness of my fellow citizens in Pennsylvania and the valuable counsel I received from so many of my party colleagues. The 2010 race has significant implications for my party, and that required thoughtful reflection. All of the above made my decision a difficult and deeply personal conclusion to reach. However, this process also impressed upon me how fortunate I am to have so many friends who volunteered to support my journey if I chose to take it and continue to offer their support after I conveyed to them this morning how I believe I can best serve my commonwealth, my party and my country.

Without Ridge in the race, it's difficult to see how the Republicans can win the Pennsylvania Senate in 2010, particularly with Toomey as their candidate. Tough break for the GOP, tough break.

Update [2009-5-7 13:50:50 by Jonathan Singer]: Just to add a little bit more, it's not difficult to understand why Ridge wouldn't want to run. There is a not at all improbable possibility that there will be fewer than 40 GOP Senators in the 112th Congress, meaning that Republicans in the chamber will have even less power or sway than the already limited amount they currently hold. It's nearly unimaginable that the party's membership in the Senate could even rise above the low 40s in 2010. Republicans might be able to retake the Senate some day, but that day doesn't appear to be soon.

This reasoning goes for any number of other potential Republicans recruits for the Senate -- and even more so for House recruits. Why would someone want to invest the time and money requisite to run a credible campaign for the House or Senate knowing full well that their party is a drag on their chances and, even if they win, they would be relegated to a small, relatively powerless minority for years to come?

Unfortunately for the GOP, this reasoning is self-reinforcing. That is to say, the more times people like Ridge say no, the more it convinces other potential candidates to say no as well. How the Republicans change this cycle is unclear to me -- but it's something they are going to have to change if they want any hope of increasing their membership in Congress next year.

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According to GOP polling firm Public Opinion Strategies, Arlen Specter, predictably, leads in a hypothetical Democratic primary with Joe Sestak.

Arlen Specter: 57
Joe Sestak: 20
Undecided: 22

Consider this a baseline poll, still largely a function of name ID. Sestak will close once he finally gets in and starts to gain a statewide profile.

The PCCC has an online straw poll asking whether there should be a Draft Sestak movement (vote HERE.) I've been a vocal supporter of Sestak's running against Specter for several reasons, one of which can be found in the general election numbers from the POS poll:

Arlen Specter: 41
Tom Ridge: 49
Undecided: 10

When deciding between two moderates, all things presumably being equal, Pennsylvania voters choose the guy who hasn't just sold out for political expediency. If Ridge does run, there needs to be a battle of ideas in this Senate race, Ridge needs to be able to be saddled with the failures of the Republican Party; how can Arlen Specter make that case when he's been right there, enabling that failure?

We simply must have a real Democrat running in the general election or at worst make Arlen Specter resemble one. The way to accomplish both of these goals is to draft Joe Sestak for Senate.

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On Fox News Sunday this morning McCain camp surrogate Tom Ridge had this to say about off-shore drilling:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,3699 82,00.html

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