This one makes 30 by my count (counting seats left open during the middle of the campaign cycle, including IL-14):

GOP sources confirm that Rep. Tom Reynolds, a Western NY Congressman since 1999 and ex-NRCC chairman, will announce around noon tomorrow in Buffalo that he will not seek re-election this fall. Reynolds spokesman LD Platt did not return an e-mail seeking comment.

Reynolds, who is also a former Assembly minority leader, has been pushing back against retirement rumors for some time now.

But the recent NRCC fraud scandal - some of which took place on his watch - has made his re-election effort that much more difficult in an already tough year (increasingly Democratic state, presidential election etc).

Reynolds' district, New York's 26th, tends to lean about 3 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections. But as we've seen over the last several cycles (and 2006, in particular), the Northeast is becoming increasingly hostile territory for Republicans, and specifically Republicans in the House. With at least one strong Democratic candidate already in the race -- Iraq War veteran Jon Powers, who had already raised a respectable $370,000 as of the end of December -- this seat very much could swing blue this fall.

Moreover, this is the 15th district that leans 6 or less points more Republican than the nation as a whole in which the GOP is on the defense without an incumbent in the race, and the 10th that leans 3 or less points more Republican than the nation as a whole. At a time when the National Republican Congressional Committee may have just a net $3 million in the bank, having so many competitive open seats in play is simply a nightmare.

There's more...

(Cross posted at The Albany Project)

Earlier today, I wrote about the NRCC's auditing troubles involving former NRCC treasurer Christopher Ward. I speculated about the possible link between this scandal and Tom Reynolds. After all, Reynolds was the head of the NRCC from 2002 to 2006 and during that time Ward was the treasurer.

I've mentioned Ward's connection to the Swift Boat Vets organization, which smeared Sen. John Kerry during his 2004 presidential run. But there's more to Ward than just partisan hackery.

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The FEC, as mentioned earlier on this site by Chris Bowers, keeps track of Positive and Negative advertising campaigns run by "independent sources." Independent mean, of course, not directly connected to the candidate in an offical manner.  Out of about 1,000 campaign entries representing the national political parties and interest groups, exactly 65 totalled over $1 million.  Fully 64 of the 65 represented the national parties.  The ads are overwhelmingly classified as negative.  More details follow below as well as a comparison of the roles of the Democratic and Republican campaign committees.

Overall, the two national political parties funded 64 campaigns and provided a total of $126 million for these high profile campaigns.  Democrats were outfunded, $65,954,919 to $60,241,783.  National Democrats invested in 30 campaigns; national Republicans invested in 31 campaigns although three campaigns benefited from multiple one millio plus expenditures by both the National Republican Committee and by the Republican Senatorial Cpmmittee.  The RNC provided nearly $8 million which is enough to provide a small Republican edge.  

Expenditures over the two days since the closingt date for these statistics gave a definite edge to Democrats.  At the least, the number of funded campaigns is even at 31 and Democratic funding for these races has closed the funding gap from nearly $6 million to something closer to $3 million.

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We have all been asking the DCCC to expand the playing field -- and finally it seems that they they finally did just that!

The DCCC's blog, The Stakeholder, reports that FOUR races in NY have become competitive enough for the DCCC to list them as the newest additions to the 'Red2Blue' list.

The NY-03, NY-19,NY-26, and NY-29 have been made into the new 'Red2Blue' races.

[More below]

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In one of the least unexpected moves of recent days, John McCain canceled a visit to Rochester on behalf of Tom Reynolds.  Couple this with the recent polls that show Reynolds down by double digits to challenger Jack Davis, the RNC pulling funds from underneath Reynolds, and with the recent pulling of Reynolds signs from mostly Republican yards, and one has to believe that Tom "I Didn't Do It" Reynolds is in dire straits.  

There's more...