The Suffolk University poll excepted, Barack Obama seems to be widening the gap with Hillary Clinton in Oregon. As Jonathan posted earlier, today's Survey USA poll shows Obama up 13 points over Hillary Clinton, a net increase of 2 points from a week ago. In addition, Public Policy Polling has released its final Oregon poll showing Obama beating Clinton 56-38, a net improvement of 4 points for Obama in the past week. PPP's take:

PPP has repeatedly found similarities between Wisconsin and Oregon in its polling of the two states. Both times polling more than two weeks out tended to show Obama with a lead in the single digits. A week out his lead moved into the lower double digits. And now it's in the upper double digits. Oregon is also the only state besides Wisconsin where we've found the war as an issue on par with the economy, and that works to Obama's advantage as well.

A widening Obama lead shouldn't be too surprising, of course, considering Obama's increased presence in the state and Clinton's increased absence, but what is interesting is the effect it may have on the Oregon senate primary between Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley and Democratic activist/consultant Steve Novick. This could be the first actual test of Obama's coattails. As PPP observes:

The better Barack Obama does, the better Novick's chances, our poll found. Novick leads 45-34 with Obama supporters, while Merkley has a 34-30 advantage with those who are supporting Clinton. [...]

Novick also has a strong advantage with men, while Merkley has the small edge with women.

Indeed, Obama's increased support in the state seems to be paralleling a late surge by Novick. It was just over a week ago that Merkley was demonstrating some real momentum but two more recent polls show Novick up, albeit within the margin of error.

The absurdly high level of undecideds, especially in the Davis, Hibbitts poll, emphasizes that this is anyone's race, but one has to wonder if Obama's surge in the state will accrue to Novick's benefit. While both Novick and Merkley endorsed Obama, the Novick campaign has tried to inject the sense that Novick v. Merkley is a proxy for Obama v. Clinton into the narrative of the race and it just may be working. Merkley is a well-known progressive legislator in the state but because he was recruited to run against Smith, Novick has painted him as having an whiff of establishment to him, while skillfully casting himself as the insurgent outsider. If Novick does ride a wave of Obamania to the November ballot tomorrow, it would be somewhat ironic considering the insulting comments he made about the senator. At the same time, though, it may be a strong sign of the sort of coattails Obama may have for Democrats nationally this fall.

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There is a fierce primary battle being waged in Oregon for the Democratic nomination to take on Senator Gordon Smith in November between OR House speaker Jeff Merkley and longtime Democratic activist/consultant Steve Novick. Smith has been truly one of the worst examples of Republicans who pretend to be moderate and independent-minded yet have voted time and time again to advance the Bush agenda. If the new Rasmussen Reports survey out of Oregon is any indication, though, voters are onto Smith and are ready to replace him with a real Democrat, not a Republican who pretends to be one every 6 years.

According to Rasmussen, both Democrats are within striking distance of Smith and rising, with the better known Merkley polling a bit better within the margin of error. Interestingly, there's also evidence that the primary itself, while bruising at times, has benefitted both Democrats and damaged Smith.

	May 7	Mar. 25	Feb. 13
Smith (R):	45	47	48
Merkley(D):	42	34	30

	May 7	Mar. 25	Feb. 13
Smith (R):	47	46	48
Novick(D):	41	35	35

500 OR LVs interviewed May 7, MoE +/- 4%

This is dangerous territory for Smith as an incumbent consistently polling below the magic 50%. And as for the primary, fast approaching on May 20, despite the fact that Novick has been polling slightly better than his opponent, the Rasmussen results may be a leading indicator of some momentum for Jeff Merkley as his upward trajectory against Smith is more consistent and pronounced, which appears to have Gordon Smith running scared as he's already launched an attack ad against Merkley and Merkley alone, indicating that, as Blue Oregon points out:

...Smith is trying to hand select his opponent. And he wants Novick.

While we've stayed largely out of picking sides in this race, I have to say Senate Guru, whose blog should be among your daily reads if you're interested in the senate races this cycle, makes a strong case for Jeff Merkley in his endorsement. And Novick's tendency to bash Democrats doesn't exactly inspire confidence.  

Are you following the race? Do you have a preference, make the case for your candidate in the comments.

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As I wrote the other day, Gordon Smith released a bizarre ad in which he claims that somehow he, the incumbent Republican, represents the real change in the Oregon senate race. Today, Jeff Merkley, one of the Democrats running in the primary to challenge Smith in November, has released an ad attacking Smith for his ad.

Watch it:

Interesting that Merkley would spend valuable resources going after Smith instead of Steve Novick, his opponent in the May 20th primary, or even to brand himself more although certainly other ads he's released have done that. It does appear, both looking at this ad and his previous one, that part of Merkley's strategy is to sort of ignore Steve Novick and cast himself as the presumptive nominee against Gordon Smith. It's a time-honored tradition but perhaps a risky one in a contest where his primary challenger is polling so strongly.

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Remember after Barack Obama won Iowa, how Mitt Romney suddenly decided he was going to run as an agent of change? It was fairly comical since his policies, such as they were, offered nothing but more of the same, but even funnier is witnessing an incumbent Republican senator trying to run for re-election with a change message. That's exactly what Sen. Gordon Smith does in his new attack ad on the two Democrats running to face him in November (h/t Blue Oregon):

Hilarious. Incumbency = change, got it?

Clearly, Smith is trying to associate himself, if only peripherally, with Obama's message in advance of Oregon's primary in which Obama is favored but this is a perfect example of a lesson that Smith and anyone else -- Democrats included -- who hopes to ride an Obama wave (whether or not he is the nominee) should learn: just saying the word 'change' or using Obama buzzwords doesn't make you Obama. Remember Kathleen Sebelius's off-key snoozefest of a SOTU response from January? Hurl. As for Republicans using it, well, I think we can expect to see more of this as it's just the latest manifestation of the blurring strategy by so-called moderate Republicans running for their lives in blue states. Of course, if such a strategy is executed as incompetently as this Smith ad, then we shouldn't really have too much trouble this fall.

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If you want to get a sense of the differences between the two top tier Democrats fighting for the chance to take on Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR) in November, it's worth checking out their recent primary debate. As is often the case in primary fights, there doesn't appear to be too much difference on policy between Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley and activist/consultant Steve Novick; they both seem solidly progressive, actually, and their differences are far more clear in style than on substance.

Novick is charismatic, quick on his feet and to me projects the sense that he's likely to say something interesting. Merkley on the other hand appears rather conventional, offering solid but not terribly interesting answers in a sort of conventional political way. So for me, as someone who was new to the race, I saw Novick as sort of the shiny object that I was intrigued by. Well, there's a downside to Novick's shine. In a recent endorsement interview with local paper Willamette Week, Novick comes off as smug and all too pleased with his own cleverness. In the process, and in his seeming need to say the unexpected and unconventional thing, Novick manages to slam bloggers and comes off as particularly petty when he refuses to say he'd vote for Merkley in the primary if he couldn't vote for himself.

You can watch the clips below:

As a political consultant himself, you'd think Novick would have a stronger sense of what a jerk he comes off as here and as someone who has blogged extensively on the local Oregon blogs you'd think Novick would have something smarter to say about bloggers and realize that the camera in the room probably meant his words would end up on a blog at some point. His arrogance might be fueled by a recent SUSA poll that had him up with a plurality in a crowded field but all his appearance in this interview does is remind voters of the upside of the more staid conventional style of Merkley: sometimes there's comfort in investing in a known quantity.

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