Non-partisan pollster Research 2000 is out with a new survey of the Massachusetts special Senate election (sponsored, however, by a Democratic blog, the Blue Mass Group), and the numbers while not great for Democrat Martha Coakley aren't half bad either:

QUESTION: If the 2010 special election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Martha Coakley, the Democrat, Scott Brown, the Republican, or Joseph Kennedy, the Libertarian candidate?

	ALL	DEM	REP	IND
Martha Coakley	49%	82%	7%	36%
Scott Brown	41%	12%	85%	49%
Joseph Kennedy	5%	1%	2%	11%
Undecided	5%	5%	6%	4%

When you put these numbers in the mix along with all of the other polling from Massachusetts conducted in the past two weeks, Coakley leads Republican Scott Brown by an average 49.6 percent to 42.6 margin -- a 7-point lead. The Pollster.com trend estimate doesn't look too different, giving Coakley a 48.9 percent to 42.5 percent lead -- 6.4 percentage points.

There is a great deal of variance in the numbers, mostly owing to different surveys showing Brown earning different levels of support. What is more constant, however, is the finding that Coakley's support is hovering at, or just below 50 percent.

There still remain a few days before the election, and both campaigns are relatively flush with cash (the past 24 hours have brought in well over $1 million to the Coakley campaign, at least matching Brown's similar haul). Here's to an interesting Tuesday night, with close coverage of the numbers here at MyDD.

Seeking to build on the money bomb that has already brought in more than half a million dollars to her campaign, Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee Martha Coakley has redirected the contribution link on her website to a new "Do It For Ted" Act Blue page hosted by Vicki Kennedy, the widow the late Senator Ted Kennedy.

More than $5,300 in new online contributions have been processed through the page in the roughly 15 minutes since it went live at about 7:50 PM Eastern according to tallies publicly available on Act Blue.

[UPDATE by Jonathan]: More than $10,000 came through in the first half hour of the page according to public numbers on Act Blue, though it is unclear how rapidly the numbers are being refreshed or the extent to which they approach real time.

[UPDATE 2 by Jonathan]: Martha Coakley has now raised $457,000 online since earlier this afternoon, according to a Democratic strategist with direct knowledge of the campaign's fundraising.

[UPDATE 3 by Jonathan]: Martha Coakley's fundraising today has surpassed half a million dollars. As of 10:45 PM Eastern, Coakley's campaign brought in $526,000 in online contributions -- and counting -- a Democratic strategist tells MyDD.

So much for the notion that progressives and Democratic voters around the country aren't engaging with the Massachusetts special Senate election.

On a day when Vicki Kennedy, the widow of the late Senator Ted Kennedy (whose death prompted this special election), penned a fundraising appeal on behalf of Martha Coakley, the Democratic nominee in the race, more than $351,000 in online contributions have streamed into Coakley's campaign. While this figure is less than the $1.3 million raised in a single day earlier this week by Scott Brown, the GOP nominee in the race, the day is still young and money appears to be continuing to pour in.

[UPDATE by Jonathan]: That number is now, as of the 9:00 hour on the East coast, $457,000 and counting.

[UPDATE 2 by Jonathan]: Coakley blows past half a million dollars.

Yesterday, after GOP blogger and consultant for Massachusetts Republican Senate candidate Scott Brown razzed me for having contributed to Brown's Democratic opponent Martha Coakley, I replied with a simple proposal:

Interested in a friendly wager? I eat a little crow on [The Next Right] if Brown wins, you do it on MyDD if Coakley wins?

Shortly thereafter I asked Ruffini, "Or would you expect a point spread in a friendly wager over the outcome of the Brown/Coakley race?" Ruffini's response a few hours later:

If I come on MyDD, I'll be happy to repost this: http://is.gd/6ameZ [a link to a post on how Paul Hackett's loss in the 2005 Ohio special congressional election was a win for the Democrats -- clearly not a crow-eating post]

I took this as a rejection of my friendly wager, replying to Ruffini, "If you were confident in a Brown win, why wouldn't you agree to a wager that could have me eating crow on your site?" Matt Ortega similarly asked, "Brown consultant @PatrickRuffini refuses to wager Brown would win?"

Ruffini tried to flip things around, stating that the fact that I was assigning even odds to the race -- which I wasn't, as evidenced by my tweet asking if Ruffini expected a point-spread in such a wager -- was the story. "[A] Brown win would be a real miracle," tweeted Ruffini.

I don't know what the outcome of Tuesday's election in Massachusetts is going to be. Nobody does. But I was willing to put myself on the line under the belief that Coakley, the Democratic nominee, would pull out a victory. Ruffini, a leading GOP blogger, wasn't willing to do the same for the candidate he supports (and indeed is doing work for). And I think that speaks volumes.

In 2009, Republican Bob McDonnell carried Virginia's 37th Senate district by a 56.8 percent to 43.0 percent margin during his successful gubernatorial bid. Republican Ken Cuccinelli, who at the time represented the district, also carried the district with 53.8 percent of the vote. But when Virginians went to the polls today to elect a replacement for Cuccinelli in a race expected to go to the Republicans, something strange happened.

Defying recent voting trends that saw several Northern Virginia Republicans win big in November, Del. David W. Marsden (D-Fairfax) won a special election Tuesday night to represent a broad swath of southwestern Fairfax County in the Virginia Senate.

Marsden, a two-term delegate from Burke who switched political parties earlier this decade while serving as the head of the state Department of Juvenile Justice under both Republican and Democratic governors, won the 37th state Senate seat vacated by Attorney General-elect Kenneth T. Cuccinelli (R) by rallying a voter base reeling from big losses in November's statewide and House races.

The vote solidifies the Democrats' majority in the Virginia state Senate, 22-18, helping ensure the party has a say when the time comes to redistrict the state following the 2010 census. But even more immediately, the election indicates that despite all the prognosticating from the Beltway press, the political environment may not be nearly as toxic for the Democrats as some would have you believe.