Crossposted from The Motley Moose

In what may well come to be seen as the culmination of the death throes of the Reagan Republican party, the first echoing retort shot across the media today as the cracks in the GOP began to give way to calving chasms and massive bergs sheared off the weathered cliffs.  The ability of Michael ("No, really! I'm, like, hip to your happening shizang my home young gentlepersons!") Steele and the GOP "leadership" (or is that "GOP" leadeship?) to maintain anything like coherency even among the reduced ranks of Republican membership is not only in retreat:

It's in hiding.

In the special election in the 23rd Congressional District race, Dede Scozzafava - the Republican candidate - quit the race today after hearing that she is being out-polled by the Conservative Party candidate that Alaskan blogger Sarah Palin is supporting.

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There are a couple of conservative polls out in recent days for the NY-23rd contest, and they are finding movement in the NY-23rd contest, so take their latest poll fwiw here:

Yes, that's a lot of undecided voters. It looks like a very fluid race. Here's some thoughts on this going into the last week:

I've seen in a couple of places, that Markos is getting 'credit' for backing Scoffafava, and they (Beck for example) are using that for their rallying cry, which is good for a laugh. Still, I think we want to see Owens win this race, by capturing those undecided voters. Yea, I've read he's not the greatest Democrat, but at this point, a Hoffman victory would not be a good thing because...

This seems sorta like 2005 and 2006 was for the netroots of online progressives during the Hackett and Lamont races. We narrowly lost the OH-2nd special election, but it energized the movement, as did the win by Lamont over Lieberman. I could see a couple of ways the NY-23rd plays out in which it has the same sort of enabling effect:

Owens wins with Hoffman in second-- This would embolden the conservatives, as they would be throwing sticks and stones at the DC-GOP over having lost the race due to Scozzafava playing the role of spoiler. It'll get really nasty if Scozzafava starts airing negative ads against Hoffman (which would be funded in part by the GOP).

Hoffman wins over Owens-- Palin hits the jackpot-- why does everything have to be seen through implications for Palin? I don't think she is ever going to run for office again. She doesn't have the temperament nor the skills to handle a national race, and she's likely done with the provincial politics of Alaska. She's gonna make a ton of money and is going to push her weight within the GOP. Really, its the Thompson's (Jerri esp.), not Palin, that seems to have been the early adopter.

Owens wins with Scozzafava in second-- The ideal conclusion. Here, Hoffman isn't able to take the frontrunner position without making a goof, or some past mistake of his is outed, and/or the undecideds go back to Scozzafava and Hoffman fades. This seemed like more than likely a week ago, but not so much now. With the DCCC targeting Hoffman, we know he's the real opposition. Hoffman has some pro's on his team, so I don't think he'll slip.

Anyone see some hope with Owens? I emailed a friend from the Dean campaign who lived in the CD (across the river from Burlington), and he thought Scozzafava was the ideal fit for the CD-- that there were only a couple of Dems there that were "heavyweights" and Owens wasn't one of them. There's next to nothing in terms of dem infrastructure in the CD, and very little history of voting Dem at the CD level. True, Obama did win 52% of the CD, but the undecideds are going to need a reason to go for Owens.

There's two angles on what this means for the GOP. First, as far as the NE goes, they have become even more regionally isolated if Owens manages to win. Second, even with a Hoffman victory, it comes at the expense of the GOP being exclusively a "conservative" party. Where's the coalition in that sort of national party? There's no big tent, but instead 3rd party fractures.

It also has big implications for the '12 GOP presidential primary. I can't imagine that Gingrich wanted to make this his issue, but he's leaked out that he wants to run for President at the same time he's throwing down the gauntlet against what's been his natural allies in the past. What's he thinking? Pawlenty is such a toolkit-- he's basically going to follow the lead of Palin everytime.

It's not shaping up to be a big D night a week from now, that's for sure, especially in Virginia (ugh). But whatever, its one CD and the GOP is as big a national mess as ever.

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