So much for the notion that Senate Republicans genuinely had a shot at putting the Democrats on the defensive anywhere in the country this cycle. Via Breaking Blue comes news of yet another survey out of South Dakota showing Democratic incumbent Tim Johnson up by a wide margin over his underwhelming GOP challenger. And earlier this week, Rasmussen Reports released new numbers out of Louisiana calling to question the Republicans' shot in Louisiana.

Senator Mary Landrieu, once viewed as the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent this election year, has opened a significant lead over Republican challenger John Kennedy in her bid for re-election.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows the Louisiana Democrat attracts 53% of the vote while the Republican hopeful earns just 37% support. A month ago, Landrieu was leading Kennedy by only five percentage points, 49% to 44%.

When leaners are pushed, Mary Landrieu's lead over John N. Kennedy grows to 17 points, 56 percent to 39 percent -- not exactly the range of an endangered incumbent. Louisiana is still a tough state for the Democrats to prevail in, both because of the long term trends in the region away from the Democrats towards the Republicans and because of the demographic shifts in the state in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. However, the Democratic Party -- and this includes the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the Democratic National Committee, the state party, activists on the ground -- have been working overtime in recent months to identify voters across the state, particularly those that moved from New Orleans to Baton Rouge or elsewhere, an effort which has greatly increased the party's chances in the fall. Tack on the fact that the DSCC and the Landrieu campaign have been pummeling Kennedy in paid media, and you can see why this race appears to be moving back towards the Democrats.

And with the Democrats playing less and less defense between now and November, and the Republicans going on the defensive in an increasingly large number of states (who'da thunk it that Georgia and even Oklahoma would be tightening up at this juncture), the Democrats' shot at 60 seats in the Senate is becoming ever more real.

There's more...

So with less than half a year to go, it's time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent.  So I'll rank these in terms of tiers.  The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching.  The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point.  Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play.  And the safe seats?  Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.

Follow me below the fold for all the races.  This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there.  Also see my previous March diary to see what things have changed since my last update.

There's more...

So with less than half a year to go, it's time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent.  So I'll rank these in terms of tiers.  The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching.  The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point.  Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play.  And the safe seats?  Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.

Follow me below the fold for all the races.  This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there.  Also see my previous March diary to see what things have changed since my last update.

There's more...

With Republican Governor Mike Rounds demurring on the possibility of a Senate run against Democratic Senator Tim Johnson, the Senate GOP turned to scraping the bottom of the barrel to try to come up with another candidate -- who might serve as just the second conceivably viable challenger to a Democrat this cycle (the other being John Kennedy to Mary Landrieu in Louisiana). To this end, the National Republican Senatorial Committee worked hard to try to recruit former Lieutenant Governor Steve Kirby to run against Johnson. But that wasn't to be.

Former Lt. Gov. Steve Kirby told the Argus Leader this morning that he will not challenge Sen. Tim Johnson in this year's Senate race.

Kirby, a Sioux Falls businessman, ended weeks of speculation with the announcement.

Kirby's decision not to seek the GOP nomination leaves three Republicans in the race: Joel Dykstra, the assistant majority leader in the state House; Spearfish businessman Sam Kephart; and former Ambassador Bert Tollefson. With only two weeks left before petitions are due to make the ballot, it's becoming less and less likely that another Republican will enter the race.

Kirby was one of several prominent Republicans courted by the party's leaders in Washington, D.C. to challenge Johnson, who is seeking a third term. He appealed to Republicans because of his statewide name recognition and wealth. But political observers also said he brought some baggage to the table following a bruising campaign for governor in 2002 in which he lost in the primary.

Of course it's worth noting that Johnson comes into this race with a whole lot of strengths, including a 73 percent favorable rating according to Rasmussen Reports. What's more, in head-to-head polling pitting Johnson and Kirby against one another, the Democrat wins by a 62 percent to 32 percent margin, per that same recent Rasmussen poll.

That all said, you can't just look at this recruitment failure in a vacuum; you must look at it in light of everything else that is happening in the race for control over the Senate. Indeed, this was the second major recruitment failure of the last week, on top of the many, many more we've seen throughout this cycle thus far. And with continual recruitment failures and retirement woes, as well as a huge cash-on-hand gap relative to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (we're talking well over 2-to-1, or $29.5 million to $13.2 million, when debts and obligations are taken into account), this is really turning out to be a terrible cycle for John Ensign and the folks at the NRSC.

There's more...

So with eight months to go, I figure it's time for an updated look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent.  So I'll rank these in terms of tiers.  The top tier will be the races where there is a serious challenger to the incumbent (or at least the incumbent's party, in cases of retirement), where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching.  The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point.  Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play.  And the safe seats?  Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.

Follow me below the fold for all the races.  Note: Some of this may seem repetitive, with information you already know.  That's because I originally wrote this for the Bruin Democrats, many of whom don't follow the national races like we do.  Consider this a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike.

There's more...