I swear to you that I will deny this rumor. But I have heard that the Obama camp is nearing a decision to pick a running mate and its looking like Clinton is on the short list.

This is an unconfirmed rumor and if you ask me where I got it I will deny even having heard it. Or that the announcement will be made within 2 weeks.  

Heard any better ones than this? Anyone know who McCain is going to choose?

There's more...

There is a movement by some to perpetuate the negative feelings between both camps.  

MOST of us (Hillary and Obama folk alike) are moving toward reconciliation...either by awakening or by degrees...but IT IS happening.

But...there are those out there who NEED to continue to perpetuate myths and ill-will to support their agendas.  Common tactics:

1) Spread a rumor/lie about what Obama is doing in (State X) with phone calls/mailings.  Proof is never offered, but such an accusation is meant to outrage and/or enflame certain supporters into action (donation?) or inaction in November.

2) The ol' "Less Filling/ Tastes Great" argument.  Someone proporting to be a supporter of candidate X writes a diary or makes a response/comment that blames to other side for "Starting it", then makes an inflamatory statement of their own, having justified it by the accusation of the other side's culpability.

Both of these tactics are nearly cliched by now, but it doesn't stop the small percentage of those folks who are vocal around here and on other websites.

My advice?  Let's all recognize that just because there is a small number of vocal and active trouble makers out there, doesn't mean that we need to be mislead. We can be smarter and better than they assume we might be.  

The fact of the matter is that no matter what they might be telling themselves privately or between one another...these agruments ONLY help John McCain.  Some of these folks believe that they are helping who they believe to be the best democratic candidate, but this is sadly not the case.

We must however, let them do what they will, and not provide any energy or fuel to the distraction and negativity.  The progressives ARE going to sweep the elections this fall, and we WILL make the changes we need to regain the the greatness of our nation and the respect of the world.  We can do this.  

Ignore the flawed (or in the case of mcCain Trolls...BAD) apples, folks...real progressives/dems WILL come around.

There's more...

This is rather remarkable. Apparently in conversations with The Politico's Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen, the Clinton campaign now believes that it has a 1 in 10 shot -- at best -- at ending up with the nomination. Take a look:

One big fact has largely been lost in the recent coverage of the Democratic presidential race: Hillary Rodham Clinton has virtually no chance of winning.

Her own campaign acknowledges there is no way that she will finish ahead in pledged delegates. That means the only way she wins is if Democratic superdelegates are ready to risk a backlash of historic proportions from the party's most reliable constituency.

Unless Clinton is able to at least win the primary popular vote -- which also would take nothing less than an electoral miracle -- and use that achievement to pressure superdelegates, she has only one scenario for victory. An African-American opponent and his backers would be told that, even though he won the contest with voters, the prize is going to someone else.

People who think that scenario is even remotely likely are living on another planet.

As it happens, many people inside Clinton's campaign live right here on Earth. One important Clinton adviser estimated to Politico privately that she has no more than a 10 percent chance of winning her race against Barack Obama, an appraisal that was echoed by other operatives.

In other words: The notion of the Democratic contest being a dramatic cliffhanger is a game of make-believe. [emphasis added]

It's not often in politics that you see this kind of blunt admission from a campaign -- particularly one that has generally been disciplined enough to stay on message for the last year or more. This statement cannot merely be written off as an attempt to lower expectations, which the Clinton campaign tends to be adept at. Unlike individual contests in which a candidate's performance is lined up against expectations, on that final ballot at the Democratic convention in August the thing that really matters is who can marshal the support of 2,025 delegates (or whatever the benchmark is by that point as it could shift as a result of how and whether delegates from Michigan and Florida are seated). There's no lowering expectations there, there's only winning or losing.

Now I'm not one to say that Clinton should drop out because it's nearly mathematically impossible for her to reach the magic number of 2,025. If she wants to stay in the race, I believe she certainly has the right. Yet at the same time, if her key campaign staff understands what the situation is -- that she has, at best, a 10 percent shot at the nomination now, as they put it -- is it really worth it to try to so tarnish the candidate who has the remaining 90 percent shot at the nomination while at the same time bolstering John McCain's national security credentials?

There's more...

The Obama campaign has scheduled two events for Albuquerque, NM on Friday.  This after Governor Bill Richardson has been quoted saying he would endorse by the end of the week.  It seems like a gutsy move if Obama didn't already know that he had the endorsement wrapped up.

If Richardson and Edwards both endorsed the same candidate prior to Feb. 5th, it would be hard to stop the MO.

There's more...

Lately it seems that every day brings a new rumor that a Republican in the House may not seek re-election.  Sometimes it is age.  Other times personal health issues.  Then again it may be a unique (or at least rare) career opportunity.  It has been adding up at a rapid pace.  In 2006, 21 Republicans eventually did not run in the general election vs. 9 Democrats.  Karl Rove and the White House used a mix of pleas and threats to get as many incumbents to re-up as possible.  This year, without the threat of an effective White House and with Democrats controlling the House for the first time in 12 years, the numbers figured to go higher.  It looks like they will.

I've combed through all 202 Republican entries on the 2008 racetracker wiki and added what memory brings to mind from recent MyDD entries.  I've also included scandal entries as these proved to be an important source of open seats in 2006.  The list is naturally incomplete.  As filing deadlines near (and pass) and primaries come and go we will get a better handle on this.  At this point, 32 Republicans have some doubt attached to their names and 170 seem likely to run.

A list of the possible vacancies plus short comments follow below the break.

There's more...