Rhode Island Results Thread

Here are the results:

Hillary Clinton: 7,380 votes (53 percent)
Barack Obama: 6,518 votes (46 percent)

44-vote margin with 8 percent of precincts reporting

Update [2008-3-4 21:23:5 by Jonathan Singer]: NBC News calls the state for Hillary Clinton.

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Final Rhode Island Poll

Because as much as you want to know what's happening in Texas and Ohio, you know in your heart that you really want to know what the situation in Rhode Island is. For that we turn to Brown University (.pdf):

Hillary Clinton: 42 percent
Barack Obama: 37 percent

From the internals of the poll, which was in the field from February 27 through March 2 and had a margin of error of roughly plus or minus five percentage points:

Further analysis of the survey data reveal that Senator Clinton is heavily favored by women, receiving 49 percent, as opposed to 29 percent for Senator Obama.  Among men, Senator Obama holds a substantial edge, receiving 46 percent of the vote, as compared to 31 percent for Senator Clinton.    

The age breakdown shows a trend similar to that of other states. Younger voters favor Senator Obama to Senator Clinton (44 percent to 41 percent), whereas older voters express greater support for Clinton over Obama (51 percent, compared to 23 percent).  Notably, fewer undecided voters comprise the 18-29 age group (16 percent) than the 65 and over age group (25 percent).  

There is an awfully large proportion of undecided voters in this survey, so perhaps it does not provide the best metric upon which to predict what might happen in the state today. At the same time, Hillary Clinton was expected to be able to win Rhode Island handily and easily, and this poll -- along with the next most recent survey, one from Fleming & Associates showing Clinton up 9 points -- seems to call that bit of common wisdom into question. As such, Rhode Island just might not be as much of a foregone conclusion for Clinton as many now believe.

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Clinton Up 9 Points in Rhode Island in New Poll

As Todd noted today, Barack Obama campaigned today in Rhode Island, a state conventional wisdom holds to be more favorable to Hillary Clinton than any oaf the other March 4th primary states. Indeed, recent polling from Rasmussen Reports and American Research Group put Clinton up 15 points and 12 points, respectively, in the state. Now a new Fleming & Associates poll is in that offers not entirely dissimilar results.

Hillary Clinton: 49 points
Barack Obama: 40 points

The survey found an overwhelming gender gap in the state, with Clinton leading among women by 32 points and Obama leading among men by 18 -- a net 50 point difference. While it's certainly possible that there will be such a great split on Tuesday, the gender gap was 27 points in neighboring Massachusetts and 34 points in neighboring Connecticut last month, so I'm not entirely convinced that there will be such a large split.

With the race in Rhode Island not as close as it is in Texas or Ohio -- though probably closer than many prognosticators thought it would be -- and Obama apparently trying to make a play for the state, I'm admittedly having trouble figuring out exactly where things stand in the state. For whatever it's worth, from this vantage it appears that Clinton has a distinct advantage over Obama in Rhode Island, but not one that is likely large enough for Clinton to score a huge victory along long the lines of those achieved by the Obama campaign in the last 10 contests (each of which Obama won by 17 or more points).

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Diaries

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