I just came across this piece in the New York Daily News from a few days back.  I found it interesting.

It seems Giuliani's negatives are trending up.  He is already up to 38% and that is before the other GOP nominees have really unloaded on him.   Even more interesting is the fact that his negatives went up after the 9/11 anniversary.

I am convinced more than ever that Tootsie will be the Republicans nominee.  The country club Republicans like the guy and the rigthwing conservative vote is going to be split at least 4 ways.  More if Newt jumps in.  Rudy will win by default.

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Last week I mentioned, while covering the latest Iowa '08 caucus poll for the GOP, that Newt Gingrich wasn't listed even though it appears a top contender. It looks like too, that Gingrich is gaining momentum among the Republican netroots. Compare the July and the August poll results among Republican bloggers, and this is notable:

*Gingrich moved from a 1% net favorable to a 40% net favorable, clearly showing favorable movement.

*George Allen moved from a 31% net favorable to a 26% net favorable after his Macaca remarks, showing this hasn't impacted his '08 candidacy to the same extent as it has hurt his '06 reelection campaign (though I'm sure it hurts him in fundraising).

*Sam Brownback moved 10% in the favorable direction; Tancredo moved 15% in the favorable direction; Huckabee moved 9% in the favorable direction. This doesn't mean much, except that they are all still around the starting gate, but a darkhorse candidacy amongst one of them might emerge.

*Frist (at -40%), Hagel (at -54%), Pataki (at -52%) can basically write-off having a widespread base of online activists.

*Romney moved from a 10% net favorable to a 36% net favorable, and Giuliani moved from a 20% net favorable to a 40% net favorable rating. Both impressive, though smaller moves than that of Gingrich.

*McCain is flat, at a net unfavorable 33% from 34% unfavorable a month ago.

Here are the first choice numbers:

Giuliani      24%
Gingrich      21%
Romney        13%
Allen         12%
Tancredo       7%
McCain         6%
Brownback      3%
Hagel          3%
Huckabee       2%
Frist          1%
Pataki         0%

They don't have the first-choice numbers from a month ago, but in August, the net movers (compared to the phone polling done) shows the candidacy of Gingrich is alive on the net; that Romney is gaining traction; Giuliani is having the strongest online/offline crossover; and McCain is trailing Tancredo in online support.

Gingrich moving probably hurts Allen the most, and Romney moving up probably hurts Giuliani the most overall, and McCain in New Hampshire. Giuliani is going to be target-rich if he decides to run, and I would expect someone like Brownback or Tancredo to aim at him to gain recognition.

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