Newspaper endorsements don't matter, eh? On Sunday, Dec. 16th, Senator McCain received the endorsement of The Des Moines Register and now two polls out of Iowa taken on or after the 16th, show McCain surging in a state where he's spent precious little time or money. In the new ARG poll (600 LVs, 12/16-19, MOE 4%) McCain has even taken a statistically insignificant lead over Romney for 2nd place and in the latest Rasmussen Reports poll (496 LVs, Dec. 17, MOE  4%) McCain more than doubles his support in the matter of 1 week.

	ARG (11/26-29)	Rasmussen (12/10)	RCP 6-poll Ave.
Huckabee	28 (27)	28 (39)	30
McCain	20 (9)	14 (6)	10.5
Romney	17 (28)	27 (23)	24.3
Giuliani	13 (9)	8 (8)	9
Thompson	5 (14)	8 (8)	8.5
Paul	4 (3)	6 (5)	6.2
Undecided	11 (12)

From Rasmussen's analysis:

The bounce for McCain in Iowa comes after the Des Moines Register endorsed the Arizona Senator last weekend. McCain has spent very little time in the state so far and has little or no organization in Iowa. It remains to be seen whether he can translate the current bounce into a solid showing on January 3. However, McCain also picked up endorsements from Senator Joe Liberman and the Boston Globe. New data released today shows that those endorsements have helped McCain close to within a few points of Romney for the lead in New Hampshire.

InTrade is starting to reflect McCain's new signs of life as well, with his share price going from $9 to $13 since Sunday.

McCain is beginning to resemble Kerry in 2004, except in reverse. Kerry had essentially gone all in in Iowa, abandoning New Hampshire, but as his numbers began to rise in the final two weeks in Iowa, his numbers in New Hampshire moved upwards as well, in absentia. McCain's  movement is more surprising, however. It was widely assumed that he could make a play for New Hampshire because of how he did in 2000 but Iowa has always been considered unfriendly terrain for McCain (Kerry, on the other hand, was a neighboring senator.)

This is a remarkable development for a campaign that had been declared virtually dead just a couple months ago. The big question now is if he can supplement this newfound life in the polls with money and organization. For example, will he take matching funds or hope big donations flood in? Normally I'd say we should expect to see attacks on McCain begin but with 2 weeks left, including Christmas and New Years, one has to wonder if it's too late. Regardless of what happens on the right, we should begin to prepare ourselves for the possibility of a McCain nomination. I actually do think he'd be the most daunting foe come November.

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On Saturday, when Mike Huckabee's essay railing against Bush's arrogant foreign policy was published, Mitt Romney wasted no time in attacking him for going after the president, even coming to Bush's defense.

"I'm the last person to say that this administration is subject to an arrogant, bunker mentality that is counterproductive here and abroad," he said. "The truth of the matter is this president has kept us safe these past six years and that has not been easy to do."

This is a new development in the campaign, which has seen the GOP candidates largely keeping Mr. 28% at arm's length.

Romney's new line of attack presented the former Massachusetts governor with a delicate balancing act. Bush's administration is generally ignored as a topic by the Republican presidential candidates, who prefer to present themselves as agents of change and new vision.

But Republicans appear to be on safer ground when it comes to praising Bush's current handling of the war.

Well, since the sky didn't fall, Romney is using it as a central line of attack against Huckabee, again yesterday in Iowa:

"I support our troops, and I support what our troops are doing. I also support our president. I believe that the president has acted in good faith and out of a desire to protect this country to do everything in his power to keep America safe," the Republican presidential candidate said. He spoke after touring the Army's Rock Island Arsenal near this eastern Iowa river city.

An odd choice given that a majority of Iowa Republican caucus-goers wants the US to withdraw from Iraq.

Romney's not the only one embracing the war. Today, McCain did everything but take credit for the surge policy in a new ad up in New Hampshire.

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The new ARG Iowa caucus poll of likely Republican caucus goers (600 LVs, 11/10-14, MOE 4%) is worth noting because it's the first poll to show Mike Huckabee essentially tied for the lead with Mitt Romney.

CandidateNov. (Oct.)RCP 4-poll Ave.Romney26 (27)28.5Huckabee24 (19)19.8Giuliani11 (16)12.3Thompson11 (8))10.3McCain10 (14)7.3Paul3 (1)4

It will take a few more polls to confirm whether Huckabee's truly gone from merely surging to actually tied for the lead but the way he's been moving (single digits in September, the teens in October, the 20s in November) he's certainly on track not only to catch Romney but to pass him. Real Clear Politics has some handy charts, including Romney's and Huckabee's relative InTrade prediction market trends. In the past two weeks, Huckabee has gone from 15% chance to win the caucus to 40% to win while Romney has gone from 68% to win down to 54% today.

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