Today is not a good day to be former Repub Arlen Specter. First, a second polling firm now shows him well behind retired Admiral Rep. Joe Sestak in the PA-SEN Democratic primary. Second, Specter has fallen well behind Sestak in both state-wide favorability ratings and general election matchups, giving Sestak all the electability cards. Third, you just know Specter had to be rooting against Obama nominating Kagan for the Supreme Court, and that's going to hurt him.

Reflecting the same results as the Muhlenberg tracking poll, Rasmussen now shows Sestak in the lead. Both polls show a 47-42 race, right at the 5% MOE. This is the third day in a row Sestak has led the Muhlenberg poll and his largest lead yet; it is the first time he has led in a new Rasmussen poll. Muhlenberg has 11% undecided; Rasmussen 8%. (Rasmussen included "some other candidate" among the choices, which grabbed the other 3%.) These polls used different methodologies to find virtually the same results.

Another new Rasmussen poll shows that Sestak is surging almost as much with the general public as he is the Democratic electorate. Sestak's favorable rating is now 50%, tied with Toomey's 51% and far ahead of Specter's 41. If the general election were held today, Specter would lose to Toomey 50-38, whereas Sestak is virtually tied at 42-40. In February, both trailed 47-38. It's clear where the momentum lies.

Also, this nugget from NBC's First Read sugests the President's new nominee to the Supreme Court may have an impact on the PA-SEN race:

As we predicted in First Thoughts, Joe Sestak's campaign is seizing on Arlen Specter's vote against Elena Kagan in 2009, when the Senate was confirming her to be U.S. solicitor general. Specter voted against her before his switch to the Democratic Party...

But he added: "My opponent, Sen. Specter, has already made his views about the president's nominee clear by voting against her confirmation to be Solicitor General, even as seven of his fellow Republicans approved her nomination. I expect Sen. Specter may backtrack from his earlier vote on Ms. Kagan this week in order to help himself in the upcoming primary election, but the people of Pennsylvania have no way of knowing where he will stand after May 18.

Norman Orstein, the Congressional scholar and the liberal in residence at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, has a short must read post:

Any veteran observer of Congress is used to the rampant hypocrisy over the use of parliamentary procedures that shifts totally from one side to the other as a majority moves to minority status, and vice versa. But I can’t recall a level of feigned indignation nearly as great as what we are seeing now from congressional Republicans and their acolytes at the Wall Street Journal, and on blogs, talk radio, and cable news.

It reached a ridiculous level of misinformation and disinformation over the use of reconciliation, and now threatens to top that level over the projected use of a self-executing rule by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. In the last Congress that Republicans controlled, from 2005 to 2006, Rules Committee Chairman David Dreier used the self-executing rule more than 35 times, and was no stranger to the concept of “deem and pass.”

That strategy, then decried by the House Democrats who are now using it, and now being called unconstitutional by WSJ editorialists, was defended by House Republicans in court (and upheld). Dreier used it for a $40 billion deficit reduction package so that his fellow GOPers could avoid an embarrassing vote on immigration.

I don’t like self-executing rules by either party—I prefer the “regular order”—so I am not going to say this is a great idea by the Democrats. But even so—is there no shame anymore?

The answer to Dr. Ornstein's question is no, not on that other side of the aisle.

It's gone beyond hypocrisy however. The rhetoric emanating from the Republicans is as if some prelude to civil war. You have Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota openly calling on citizens not to pay taxes and to engage in acts of civil disobedience. At her "Kill the Bill" rally on the St. Paul Minnesota State Capital steps, she compared President Obama to Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chávez and then called the healthcare reform bill "illegitimate" before suggesting that such illegitimate bills need not be followed.

"In their bill they have the IRS enforcing the Health Care Bill", said Rep. Bachmann. "We're not going to pay their taxes..." "We don't have to follow a bill that isn't law."

Watch it:

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On the very day Arlen Specter became a Democrat, he lamented that not enough right-wing Bush judges got confirmed, he opposed workers' right to organize, and he compared himself to Joe Lieberman. The DSCC and Pennsylvania Democratic Party will be supporting Specter in the primary.

If there is a potential progressive challenger to Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania, they are probably scratching their head right now asking, "Would I have any chance at all if I ran, or is the fix in?"

What can progressives to do create an environment where this person feels they can run?

Legally, we can't put money in a pot for a fictional candidate. But we can pledge now that if a real progressive steps up, we'll get their back.  

So, here's a little experiment. I just created a Facebook fan page (like a Facebook group) called "I support a real progressive against Arlen Specter."

People who join are pledging to give at least $25 to a credible progressive challenger who steps up.  It'll either succeed or flop -- and that will solely be determined by whether the energy is there for people to join and pass it along to their friends. 

If enough folks join, media will probably pay attention -- but more important, a progressive challenger would be paying attention. If not many people join...same thing. The destiny of a "challenge Specter" movement is in your hands. And the window to make this idea credible is likely short.

So, what say you? Click here or on the image to the right if you want to join.

(Not on Facebook? You can sign up to support a progressive challenger here.)

Let's see what happens...

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I am amazed at how quickly a "freshman" congressman learns to play GOP "follow the leader" instead of actually showing support for his constituents. Glenn Thompson has learned quickly indeed.

This is the letter he sent me to justify his voting "no" on the stimulus bill.

worst.congressman.ever?

Thank you for contacting me regarding the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, more commonly referred to as "the stimulus" bill. I appreciate hearing from you and value your opinion on this important matter.

   The American people are suffering from unstable housing markets, staggering job losses, and an overall lack of confidence in our financial system. In the fall of 2008 Congress made an apparently unsuccessful attempt to bring stability to the credit markets with passage of the $750 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). While I was not a member of Congress at the time, I strongly opposed this package - the majority in Congress simply did not address the root of the problem.

   For several years aggressive policies here in Washington encouraged homeownership for all Americans, often on shaky terms and for too many who could not afford it. While an admirable goal, these policies needed to place focus on educating new homeowners and providing opportunities that would assist in the responsible growth of homeownership in America.

   Unfortunately, these economic troubles have spread to other portions of the economy and Congress cannot afford to be silent. On January 28th the House took up a stimulus package that I could not support because once again, the Democrats who control Congress did not address the root of the problem. Rather than producing a bipartisan measure that empowered smart government solutions through incorporating tax cuts for hard working American families, the majority effectively locked the Republican minority party out of negotiations and loaded the bill with costly direct spending on expansions of programs that have nothing to do with stimulating the economy.

   While there were many worthwhile programs included in the package that I whole heartedly support, such as increased funding for shovel ready transportation and infrastructure projects, we have learned from the failures of TARP that Congress must stop throwing our taxpayer's money at our problems. I was extremely disappointed to find in the end, transportation and infrastructure was not even 3.5% of the final bill - less than a one year of federal highway funding to the states. Unfortunately, this bill is nothing more than an expansion of big government and will cost upwards of $1.7 trillion. More egregious, is that fact that this stimulus package will only put 11 percent of that money in the marketplace during 2009.

   Following my promise of always working to ensure your tax dollars are wisely spent here in Washington, I have joined with my colleagues in supporting an alternative plan that will create twice the jobs at half the cost.

   o We must provide tax relief for working families; therefore we must lower the individual and joint tax rates, which will keep more money in the taxpayer's pocket.

   o Small businesses employ most of the American workforce. These businesses keep our economy afloat, yet often face tax rates that absorb upwards of 40% of their profits. By providing relief for these small businesses they will be able to expand and in turn hire more employees.

   o Unemployment benefits for those workers who have lost their jobs are currently taxed as income. Congress must suspend taxes on unemployment and let those facing tough times focus on providing for their families.

   o The housing markets must be stabilized and confidence in the markets restored. One immediate way would be to encourage federal tax incentives to expand the supply of affordable housing available for purchase by qualified individuals and first time home buyers.

   Tax incentives alone cannot create jobs, however direct spending must be targeted and precise or we run the risk of continuing to throw money at the problem. As we move forward, I look to work with the Administration, Democrats, and my fellow Republicans in achieving non partisan, smart government solutions. These goals can only be achieved through the democratic process, not top down

   governance that prevents input from the elected officials the people have chosen to represent them. Together we can work to stabilize our housing markets and get America through these tough times, back to work, and looking forward to future prosperity.

   Again, thank you for contacting me. For more information on my policies and happenings around the 5th District, please visit my website at www.thompson.house.gov. There you can sign up to receive periodic updates via my e-newsletter, The Thompson Times.

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Pennsylvania's Lieutenant Governor has passed away after battling with neuroendocrine cancer. Catherine Baker Knoll was 78.

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