Tough news for John McCain. Despite the fact that McCain, along with the Republican National Committee, invested at least $6 million in Pennsylvania on advertisements, outspending Barack Obama by roughly a 3-to-2 margin, MccCain's numbers aren't budging upward one bit, according to new Quinnipiac polling.

Pennsylvania (8/17-24, 1,234 LVs, MoE +/- 2.8%)

John McCain (R): 42 percent (42 percent on July 31)
Barack Obama (D): 49 percent (49 percent on July 31)

The numbers out of Florida and Ohio, unlike those from Pennsylvania, are within the margin of error.

Florida (8/17-24, 1,069 LVs, MoE +/- 3.0%)

John McCain (R): 47 percent (44 percent on July 31)
Barack Obama (D): 43 percent (46 percent on July 31)

Ohio (8/17-24, 1,234 LVs, MoE +/- 2.8%)

John McCain (R): 43 percent (44 percent on July 31)
Barack Obama (D): 44 percent (46 percent on July 31)

No doubt it would be nice to see more favorable numbers for Barack Obama in Florida and Ohio at this juncture, though it's likely the case that the race will be tight in both states all the way through November, and a blowout in either direction is not terribly likely. In Florida, in particular, the fact that Obama appears to be losing ground despite the fact that he has been on the air while McCain has not is at least somewhat worrisome (even if Florida is not by any means a necessary part of the Democratic coalition and road to 270 this fall). That all said, that McCain is utterly failing in making Pennsyvlania a real race should be of equal concern to his campaign, especially considering that Iowa, which George W. Bush carried in 2004, leaning towards Obama and other red states -- including Colorado and Virginia, and even North Dakota and Alaska -- definitely in play).

John McCain has been investing big dollars on advertising in both Michigan and Pennsylvania, outspending Barack Obama in the two states, both of which John Kerry won in 2004 -- and which are key to Obama's electoral strategy. And just how are McCain's efforts coming along? The latest numbers out of Michigan can't be too reassuring for the GOP.

Barack Obama still holds a solid 47% to 40% lead over John McCain in the key battleground state of Michigan, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters there.

The trend out of Michigan, as captured by Pollster.com, doesn't look any better.

Yes, that appears to show Obama moving noticeably and consistently upward in the state and McCain failing to move his numbers even an inch. How about Pennsylvania?

In the Keystone state, Obama continues to see a similarly upward facing trajectory as he is experiencing in Michigan. However, unlike Michigan, in which McCain's numbers are at least staying flat at a time when he is outspending Obama in the state, in Pennsylvania, McCain's numbers are actually moving South.

Impressive.

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Must be good news for John McCain.

Florida

John McCain: 44 percent
Barack Obama: 46 percent

(June: Obama 47, McCain 43)

Ohio

John McCain: 44 percent
Barack Obama: 46 percent

(June: Obama 48, McCain 42)

Pennsylvania

John McCain: 42 percent
Barack Obama: 49 percent

(June: Obama 52, McCain 40)

With numbers like these, it must be a statistical heat, right? Of course the odds of it being a tie considering Obama led or was tied in 50 straight national polls up through Sunday is are about .0000000000000009 (perhaps a little higher now with the Gallup poll showing Obama up among registered voters but down according to the pollster's likely voter model). But, still, it must be a tie...

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So, after an earlier diary reporting 8.6%, users on DailyKos found an error in the Lancaster County reporting of about 13,000 votes. I called up the Pennsylvania Department of State, and they promised to investigate and call me back. Two minutes later, they called me back, thanked me, and fixed the error.

The site now reports with 99.44%:
CLINTON, HILLARY (DEM)  
 1,237,696 54.6%
OBAMA, BARACK (DEM)  
 1,029,672 45.4%

In other words, 9.2%. Still single digits, and still doesn't round up to 10. So I was off by 1.2% and 1 delegate (so far). Not bad!

Hat tip to InsultComicDog on DKos.

cross-posted from Election Inspection.

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Official Pennsylvania Elections Results with 99.09% reporting.

Candidate	%	Votes	Delegates
Clinton	54.3	1,235,067	80
Obama	45.7	1,041,366	66

That's Clinton by 8.6%. A single-digit win. I predicted Clinton would win by 8% and gain 12 delegates. So far, I'm within 1% and 1 delegate. I'd say that's a pretty good prediction, wouldn't you? There's still another 12 delegates to be calculated.

Oh, but CNN and the media are still rounding 54.3 up to 55%. Interesting.

McCain only won 72.7% of the PA GOP vote. That's pretty weak don't you think?

And finally, congratulations to Democrat Travis Childers, who goes on to a runoff in MS-01 as the frontrunner. He missed winning the seat outright by 0.6%.

cross posted from Election Inspection

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