The Democrats have tried hard in recent cycles -- unsuccessfully -- to knock off Pennsylvania Republican Congressman Jim Gerlach, who represents a Philadelphia-area district that leans Democratic (with a PVI of D+2). Perhaps now they'll have a chance to finally win the seat.

Jim Gerlach, a Republican congressman who has proven his political mettle in a Democratic Philadelphia-area district, is one step closer to running for governor of Pennsylvania in 2010.

Gerlach announced he is forming an exploratory committee so he can raise funds for a potential gubernatorial campaign.

In a statement, Gerlach said he will be making a final decision to "formally move forward with a campaign for governor" by late spring.

Despite the fact that the Democrats toned down their previously strenuous efforts to go after Jim Gerlach in 2008, the Republican incumbent won reelection with just 52 percent last November. And per Swing State Project, Barack Obama carried Gerlach's sixth district by an overwhelming 58 percent to 41 percent margin over John McCain, suggesting that not only is the district amenable to voting Democratic (at least when excluding challengers to Gerlach) but that it is trending even more Democratic (voting 5 percentage points more Democratic than the nation as a whole in 2008, up from the 2-point lean in the previous PVI). So if Gerlach does indeed move forward with a gubernatorial bid, abandoning a reelection effort, this race will likely lean Democratic.

There's more...

(cross-posted at Deny My Freedom and Daily Kos)

I first met PA-08 Democratic candidate Patrick Murphy almost 1 year ago. It wasn't a big event - we cleared leaves from the local YMCA parking lot and playgrounds with the other candidate in the running for the nomination, former Bucks County commissioner Andy Warren. I didn't know much about Patrick, but I had heard his biography - Iraq war veteran, law professor, and all-around stand-up guy - and came away very impressed with him as a candidate. He's come a long way since those days, when his candidacy was seen as something of a longshot due to being a political novice. Nevertheless, the latest polls show a very close race, and Patrick's picked up the support of Democrats, Republicans, and independents throughout the district, as I've seen in the past.

Today was the last day I could volunteer for his campaign, but it was one hell of a day. Patrick's going to be Representative Murphy in a few days, if this is any indication.

There's more...

After I was elected to the Pennsylvania State Democratic Committee, a friend of mine on the state committee sent me a copy of the bylaws for the state party. Today, I find the following passage of particular interest:SECTION 2. Only duly registered and enrolled Democratic electors shall be eligible to serve as members or officers of any of the committees provided in Section 1 of this rule.

(a) No person shall be eligible to serve as a member or officer of any Democratic committee as provided in Section 1 of this rule who:(...)

(3) by voice, vote, financial support or otherwise has, within two years, supported a candidate in a general or special election opposed to the duly nominated candidate of the Democratic Party in that election, except as provided in paragraph (c) of this Section. While Governor Rendell is not technically violating this section, with his recent remarks on Santorum, he comes very close to doing so:Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (D) has confounded his party with some recent comments about Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA). He recently told the Weekly Standard that Santorum "has proven that he gets the job done. Time and time again he has come through." Rendell later praised Santorum again to the Philadelphia Inquirer: "How could I be tearing a new rear end for someone who worked effectively to get flood relief for Pennsylvania?"

The Inquirer reports that Rendell officially supports challenger Bob Casey (D) and plans to campaign for him, but that Santorum is already running radio ads in Philadelphia highlighting Rendell's remarks. Why is Governor Rendell saying positive things about Rick Sanotrum in the Weekly Standard? For that matter, why is Governor Rendell giving an interview with the Weekly Standard at all? Now Rick Santorum is using those comments in his ads. Of course, I am talking about a Democrat who went on Fox News in order to support Samuel Alito during the confirmation hearings and repeat the talking points Republicans were using about Democrats during those hearings. I am also talking about someone who was openly a member of the Fainthearted Faction during the Social security fight. Whatever lesson Democrats in DC may or may not learn from the Connecticut Senate primary, I wonder sometime how long it will take that lesson to filter down from DC and back into Pennsylvania.

This is a huge, huge, huge mistake by Rendell. Rick Sanotrum is closing the gap on Casey because he has gone on the air first. This isn't particularly worrying because it is a common phenomenon in politics: the candidate who goes ont eh air first often receives a boost. However, it is worrying because of Santorum's ridiculous war chest that should allow him to stay on the air pretty much continuously between now and Election Day. Fortunately, Casey has a lot of money too and we scored some points with the base this week by pointing out that the Green Party of Pennsylvania is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Republican Party. In the meantime, we do not need to show that the communications apparatus of the Democratic Party in Pennsylvania is operated by the same people who run the Republican shop. I do not care what 1990's school of triangulation politics Governor Rendell comes from, the simple fact is that he has consistently performed better than other Democrats in the state, and his consistent willingness to talk up Republicans and talk down Democrats is a major reason for this. He has no problem benefiting himself at the expense of his fellow Democrats. When I attended my first state committee meeting back in June, the party leaders repeatedly hammered the concept of "loyalty" to us newbies. Quite frankly, after seeing Governor Rendell do something like this yet again, I don't think that we were the ones who need to learn that lesson.

(Hat tip to Mark Kilmer at Redstate)

KDKA posts an interview with Pennsylvania Republican Gubernatorial candidate Lynn Swann here.

I have been following the PA Gov race only tangentially until now; I had assumed that Rendell would more or less coast to re-election. While I imagined the not-always-popular Rendell might face some bumps on the road, I never doubted his re-election. After watching this interview, I'm not so sure.

Lynn Swann shows all the signs of a Bush-like everyman appeal. He comes off as a plain-spoken, common-sense candidate. He's highly polished, and while I haven't thoroughly investigated the content of his campaign, I'm worried his style might appeal to the crossover and split ticket voters for whom PA is famous. Furthermore, while I vehemently disagree with his issue stands on gay marriage and abortion, he frames these issues skillfully (especially gay marriage) as to appeal to common-sense, mainstream voters. All this makes me a bit worried, given Rendell's bumpy re-election road so far. What do you think? Am I being paranoid, or might this be a legitimate worry?

There's more...

You may recall the earlier piece on Why Lynn Swann Does Not Belong in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Some people criticized Chris Bowers for attacking Candidate Lynn Swann by going after Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann.

Wherever you fell in that divide, I think you'll find Norman Chad's column this week to be entertaining. Chad writes a sports column called The Couch Slouch, and his topic this week is Lynn Swann, Sideline Reporter Turned Gubernatorial Candidate. A sample:

Do you know what a sideline reporter does? He stands on the sideline. There are three primary responsibilities: Give updates on injuries, interview the coach at halftime and, well, stand on the sideline.

Frankly, if you were to chase runaway mercury out of broken thermometers at a local hospital, you would be making better use of your time than standing on a sideline reporting. And not to trample all over Swannie here, but he is just an average sideline reporter. There is not a single moment I can recall in which Swan did something so extraordinary on the sideline that I said to myself, "Yep, gubernatorial material."

Swann has been standing on the sideline watching football for the past quarter century, and suddenly he's qualified to be governor of Pennsylvania? Heck, I've been sitting on the sofa watching football for the past quarter century -- what am I, the next U.S. attorney general?

You never know where in the MSM these memes can get picked up. I think a little deflation of Swann's image is perfectly in order. This is his resume, after all.

There's more...