As we already know, 2010 is shaping up to be yet another...err... problematic cycle for the Republicans on the Senate front. Not only will they once again be defending more seats than Democrats (19R vs. 15D) but the whole playing field is working against them. Chris Cilizza sums it up with a top 10 most vulnerable seats list, which features 7 Republicans and 3 Democrats (and even those Dems -- Boxer, Reid and Dorgan -- are longshot perfect storm pickups.)

As Cilizza puts it:

Republicans must defend 19 seats including six (North Carolina, Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio) in states won by President-elect Barack Obama earlier this month.

Democrats have far less vulnerability; only one incumbent up for re-election (Colorado Sen. Ken Salazar) won with less than 55 percent of the vote in 2004 and several potential races are entirely contingent on one Republican candidate deciding to run.

But this doesn't even take into account potential open seats that may make currently unwinnable races quite winnable. Bob Geiger looks at the potential pick-ups in Texas if Kay Bailey Hutchison runs for Governor (although apparently she won't necessarily resign to run, only if she wins), in Kansas if, as expected, Sam Brownback retires to run for Governor and in Ohio and Iowa where septugenarians George Voinovich and Chuck Grassley may very well retire rather than wage tough re-election fights. Currently Charlie Cook lists the Ohio and Iowa races as lean Republican (hey, never too early for a Senate outlook map!) but they would change to toss-up overnight if these guys were to choose not to run again (can you say Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado?)

Geiger who makes a good point about the upside of open seats versus running against Republican incumbents in '10:

While Democrats were able to grab Senate seats from Republican incumbents this year -- goodbye, John Sununu and Elizabeth Dole -- there may be some cyclical backlash against an all-Democratic Washington in 2010 and campaigning for a bunch of open seats will make the road to a bigger majority much easier to travel.

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Now in the minority for the first time in a dozen years and facing the prospect of perhaps continuation of this status, some House Republicans will no doubt opt for retirement next year rather than enduring in the Capitol in a powerless position. According to the Hotline on Call blog, one such member of the House GOP caucus may have decided to call it quits in Congress.

Our TX affiliate, Quorum Report, just sent out a breaking news alert on GOP Rep. Ron Paul, a.k.a. "Dr. No." Paul, the '88 Libertarian candidate for the president, has apparently filed to run for president in '08, potentially opening up his House seat. Already, Quorum Report notes that one GOPer is making calls about a run. As for Paul, he plans to run as a GOPer this time.

Texas-14, which Paul represents, has a PVI of R+14, meaning that it tends to vote 14 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections. For reference, two Democrats in Texas alone -- Chet Edwards and Nick Lampson -- won races in districts with a PVI in excess of R+14.

And almost anything can occur in open seats -- even ones with strong partisan leans. Last fall in an open race for Colorado's fifth congressional district, which has a PVI of R+16, the National Republican Congressional Committee was forced to invest close to $150,000 in independent expenditures. The NRCC and the Club for Growth also combined to spend close to $1 million defending Idaho's 1st district in an open race despite its PVI of R+19. So even if the Democrats are not able to win in Texas-14 next fall, which is far from a foregone conclusion, by recruiting a credible candidate -- be it 2006 nominee Shane Sklar or someone else -- the Democrats can force the Republicans to spend much needed dollars in a district that otherwise might be assumed to be safe, thus helping the overall effort to both hold on to the House and perhaps even extend the party's majority in the chamber.

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It's official. House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Rep. Bill Thomas, R-California, who has been in Congress since 1978, is finally retiring.

His district, at the southern end of the San Joaquin Valley including Bakersfield, is overwhelmingly Republican, so the only real question is which Republican will succeed him. The odds-on favorite is State Assembly Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield; but State Senator Roy Ashburn, who ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic-leaning CA-20 in 2004, could be a surprise late entry.

Since Ashburn is up for reelection this year, I doubt he will run. So get ready to start saying "Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-California".

[Bush got 68% of the vote in CA-22]

Still, any open seat is another seat for the NRCC to spend money on defending. And if Rep. Sherwood Boehlert of New York chooses to retire, that will be a tough seat for the NRCC to defend, as Kerry got 48% in NY-24 and we have Eliot Spitzer and Hillary topping the New York ticket.

Anyway, Bill Thomas, architect of the Social Security Destruction Act of 2005, is done. Buh-bye. Enjoy retirement.

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I am sick and tired of seeing Democrat after Democrat to retire.  2010 is going to be a protect your neck election for Democrats and they will need every seat possible.  The netroots themselves bear part of the responsibility for this disaster by pushing Democrats from tough seats like Paul Hodes, Joe Sestak, Brad Ellsworth, and Charlie Melancon into Senate races that they have little chance of winning in a climate where the wind is blowing so hard in Democrats' faces, that they cant even stand in a overwhelmingly Democratic state like Massachussetts. 

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