I have been burned in the past for predicting the Democrats had a shot at winning a Senate election in Oklahoma, so I'm not going to go too far out on a limb in evaluating the rumors that the Sooner state's highly popular Democratic Governor Brad Henry is looking at a Senate run in 2010 -- but it would make the race one to watch in 2010 if the rumors panned out.

The word from the Sooner State is that Gov. Brad Henry (D), a moderate Democrat, is getting lots of pressure from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) and the Democratic National Committee (DNC) to run for the US Senate next year if -- as is looking likely -- US Sen. Tom Coburn (R) decides to step down. Henry has managed to stay reasonably popular despite having to contend with a Republican legislature. Coburn, who has yet to say yea or nay on a 2010 re-election bid, raised only a pittance ($17,000) in the 1st Quarter, which suggests he isn't planning to run again. Meanwhile, the OK GOP is looking like the gang that couldn't shoot straight in this year's state legislative session, failing to pass its two top priorities, tort reform and an English-only proposal, plus lost an anti-stem cell research measure. Stay tuned.

Let's not kid ourselves here. Oklahoma is a red state. In fact it's a very red state. Just how red? It gave John McCain the largest share of the vote of any state in the nation in November 2008. That said, Oklahomans seem to like the moderate to conservative Henry, regardless of his party affiliation, and were he to jump in the race the Republicans would have to spend money to try to defeat him (even if he wasn't likely to win, he is still a sufficiently strong candidate for the GOP to have to pay attention lest they get caught off guard and lose the race). So here's to hoping that the folks at the DSCC and the DNC can convince Henry to say yet.

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Y'know how there have been, like, a million stories asking whether or not Kentucky Senator Jim Bunning will retire, in part because of his weak fundraising, fundraising not indicative of a Senator gearing up for re-election?  Well, consider this:

Oklahoma's Tom Coburn raised less in Q4 and has less cash on hand than old man Bunning, who everyone expects will retire.

Maybe Coburn isn't so keen on a re-election bid, as his previous comments have suggested.  He certainly isn't fundraising like his heart is in it.  Will Coburn be the next Senate Republican to announce his retirement?

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With the election less than 3 weeks away from us, it's time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent.  So what are the competitive races?

Again, just to be clear, I don't do predictions.  Every time I do, horrible things happen.  So I won't even make an actual prediction on the Virginia Senate race, because doing so would effectively jinx Mark Warner.  So, I'll rank these in terms of tiers.  The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a legitimate chance of switching (but I ain't guaranteeing anything).  The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point.  Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play.  And the safe seats?  Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.

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So with the Alaska primary and the conventions now over, it's time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent.  So what are the competitive races?

Again, just to be clear, I don't do predictions.  Every time I do, horrible things happen.  So I won't even make an actual prediction on the Virginia Senate race, because doing so would effectively jinx Mark Warner.  So, I'll rank these in terms of tiers.  The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a legitimate chance of switching (but I ain't guaranteeing anything).  The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point.  Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play.  And the safe seats?  Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.

This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there.  Also see my previous August diary to see what things have changed since my last update.

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Color me surprised. I have had my eye on the Oklahoma Senate race for a while but haven't written too much about it given that although I believe GOP incumbent Jim Inhofe to be vulnerable and his Democratic challenger Andrew Rice to be credible, Oklahoma is an incredibly red state and the last time it held a Senate election concurrent to a Presidential election, back in 2004, a very able Democratic candidate (Congressman Brad Carson) lost to an underwhelming GOP candidate (now-Senator Tom Coburn). But maybe this contest isn't as out of reach as I had once thought.

Oklahoma Democratic Senate candidate Andrew Rice has narrowed Republican Senator Jim Inhofe's lead from twenty points two months ago to nine points today, according to a new poll conducted for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the Rice campaign. Inhofe now leads Rice only 50% to 41%, down from a 53% to 33% lead in June. Only 46% of Oklahomans say Inhofe is doing an excellent or good job, with 47% saying he is doing only a fair or poor job.

[...]

The poll of 600 likely voters was taken August 12 to 14 by the Benenson Strategy Group and has a 4% margin of error.

This is going to be a tough race for Rice to win, no doubt. As alluded to above, back in 2004 the trend for Carson looked great with the Democrat leading by a 44 percent to 39 percent margin in late September, and it appeared as though the Democrats had a legitimate shot at picking up Oklahoma's other Senate seat. In the end, however, Coburn pulled out a relatively comfortable 53 percent to 41 percent victory over Carson.

That all said, that Rice, who coming into the race was much less of a proven commodity in Oklahoma than Carson, is already pulling in the same amount of support in mid-August that Carson was able to garner in November 2004 is a good sign. What's more, with the Republicans on the defensive around the country, and environmental groups particularly aiming at Inhofe (in a way not too dissimilar to the efforts waged against the similarly anti-environment Richard Pombo in 2006), this could the type of race that flies under the radar only to come together as a real contest in the end. For now, chalk it up as yet another contest we need to be keeping our eye one.

Below the fold... an ad from the Rice campaign.

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