There's no way of spinning this as good news for the Democrats:

Sen. Byron Dorgan, a 18-year veteran Democrat, dropped a late-day bombshell, announcing he will retire when his term ends this year. Dorgan's announcement represents an opportunity for Republicans: North Dakota is a Republican-leaning state, where President Obama got just 45% of the vote last year.

While it's true Barack Obama earned a higher share of the vote in North Dakota than any Democratic presidential nominee in more than 30 years (fully 9 percentage points better than John Kerry's showing in the state) and that the state's congressional delegation is entirely Democratic at present, it's hard to see the Democrats holding on to this seat without Byron Dorgan as their nominee. It's possible that Democrat Earl Pomeroy, who has been elected nine times statewide as Congressman, most recently with 62 percent of the vote (and even with 52 percent of the vote in the GOP-friendly 2002 midterms), could win -- but really only if the state's Republican Governor John Hoeven doesn't run. Tough news for the Senate Democrats (though, it's still worth noting, not news that means they're likely to lose control of the Senate).

Crossposted from Hillbilly Report.

The legislation the Senate Finance Committee will vote on next week relies heavily on Co-ops to help cover the uninsured. It discards a robust public option, or any public option completely. It also mandates that uninsured Americans must buy insurance with subsidies to help them do it. Senators Baucus and Conrad are intent on including this model into law and voting against any more Progressives ideas such as a Public Option and single-payer.

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News was a month ago that the Obama campaign would be pulling out of North Dakota, yet the polling in the time since has actually shown Obama leading in the state, which George W. Bush won by more than 20 points in 2004 and in which no Democrat in the last 30 years has received more than 43 percent of the vote. But with the map still actually expanding, the Democrats are not giving up on the state.

Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean is scheduled in Grand Forks Nov. 1 for a get-out-the-vote rally.

State Democratic Executive Director Jamie Selzler says officials are still working on the site and other details. Dean's visit comes three days before the general election.

The three North Dakota polls in the field this month each show Obama either leading or tied with John McCain, though not yet crossing the 45 percent threshold. Specifically, Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos (10/14-15) showed a 45 percent to 45 percent draw, a poll commissioned by the United Transportation Union (10/13-14) found Obama leading 44 percent to 41 percent, and a Minnesota State University Moorhead poll (10/6-8) pegged the race at Obama 45 percent, McCain 43 percent. In short, even with the Obama campaign ramping down its efforts in the state, Obama still has a decent shot at earning its 3 electoral votes. And with Howard Dean rallying the troops three days out from election day, perhaps Obama might be able to sneak away with a narrow victory in the state.

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Obama cancelled a campaign stop in North Dakota several weeks ago to focus on more critical states more likely to produce electoral votes. In some cases, there is no polling to speak of.

But the Fargo Forum today issued a poll showing Obama with a 45-43 lead over McCain. While that is a statistical dead heat, it has to be unwelcome news to McCain's campaign.

North Dakota only has 3 electoral votes, but a break in one very red state suggests others may be moving as well. The Forum poll and story are at: http://tinyurl.com/3sjko7

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According to the Associated Press, the Obama campaign is pulling out of North Dakota, a state that appeared to possibly be on the map, but also a state that the Democrats had not carried in more than 40 years (or gotten more than 43 percent in more than 30 years).

Barack Obama, who has deployed more than 50 staffers in North Dakota in an attempt to become the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state since 1964, is pulling out.
An Obama spokeswoman, Amy Brundage, confirmed Sunday that the campaign's North Dakota staffers were being sent to Minnesota and Wisconsin, where recent polls have shown a tight race between Obama and Republican John McCain.

She declined to say how many campaign workers were being shifted, but other Democratic activists put the number at more than 50. Obama has opened 11 North Dakota campaign offices and run television advertising in the state, which is unusual for a Democratic presidential candidate.

McCain's campaign has no paid staff or offices in North Dakota.

The reaction from many has been, see, we have the same map as always, that Obama isn't running a 50-state campaign. Rubbish. Two of the swingiest states this year -- Virginia and Colorado -- were not genuinely on the map four years ago, nor have they been among the list of most contested states consistently or even infrequently over the last four decades. Even a state like Indiana, which George W. Bush won by more than 20 points in 2004, is in play.

I will be updating race rankings here in the next couple of days, and indeed it will show a map with fewer states in play than there were a few months ago. So what. That's what happens in campaigns. But in general, there appear to be more states in play this fall than there have been in other recent elections, and the states in play tend to be redder than the ones that have been on the map at this juncture (particularly Virginia, Colorado and Indiana) -- facts that greatly undermine the notion that we're playing on the same electoral map as we always have.

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