Pollster New Year

A look back at 2011 in polls with Gallup's Year in Review.  Some highlights:

January -

May -

June -

August -

October -

Nate Silver lines up FiveThirtyEight's hit's and misses of the year

At the Crystal Ball, Sabato takes to the YouTube for 2012 and Abramowitz reminds everyone that no, again, just like every other year, 2012 won't see and anti-incumbent wave.  So what are voters thinking then?  "Meh"  and "Go Packers!"

And finally, per tradition, polling on the first GOP candidates in Iowa is all over the place, but Mark Blumenthal says there's one last "one to watch" of 2011:

On New Year's Eve exactly four years ago, the Des Moines Register released its final poll of Iowa caucus-goers and turned the political world upside down.

While the newspaper's final Iowa Caucus poll of 2011, set to be published Saturday night at 7 p.m. Central Time (8 p.m. Eastern Time), may not confound the conventional wisdom this time, it is among the most eagerly anticipated political polls of the season for good reason. The Register has a hard-earned reputation for accuracy grounded in the fundamentals of survey research: Assume as little as possible about the likely caucus-goers, and let the voters speak for themselves.

Happy New Year.

"The Saga of Partisan Affairs"

Some highlights from the world of numbers crunching.

Nate Silver: Scott Brown's early 2010 victory may have been an early bell-weather for Democratic losses, but it was an outlier and Brown may be vulnerable:

The tsunami that hit Democrats last month — as large as it was — was remarkably precise and orderly, all things considered: given that the Democrats lost more than 60 seats, they lost almost exactly the 60 seats that you might have expected them to lose based on the overall partisanship of the districts. That did not include seats similar to Massachusetts, where Democrats in fact held on to all 10 congressional districts, even though several of the seats had been considered vulnerable.

Pollster: Americans have been ready for DADT repeal for over a decade.

Some outlets use a favor/oppose construction, others use yes/no or agree/disagree. Some outlets use the word "homosexuals," others use "gays and lesbians." ...

Regardless of the question wording, the basic result is the same. For sixteen years Americans have been supportive of allowing gays and lesbians to openly serve in the military.

PPP: Montana Republicans want former Governor, former insurance lobbyist, and former Bush adviser Marc Racicot as their 2012 Senate candidate challenging Jon Tester:

Most would like to see either Marc Racicot (40%) or Denny Rehberg (37%) end up with the nod. Rehberg has near universal popularity with the Republican base (75/14) and although he gets a lot of 'not sures' 10 years removed from the Governor's office pretty much all Republicans with an opinion about Racicot like him (58/12 favorability). It's hard to imagine anyone else winning the nomination if either of them end up running

Also, they loves themselves some Palin/Huckabee.

Thomas Schaller takes a look at CO, NH, OH, VA in 2010, areas of biggest gain for Democrats in the previous three midterms, and concludes:

...just two years after Obama’s precedent-setting victory, America remains entrenched in a period of partisan dealignment and gridlock, and divided government nationally. Despite steady Republican gains since Ronald Reagan’s 1980 election, followed by a stinging Republican rebuke by a revitalized Democratic Party during the late stages of George W. Bush’s presidency, the shifting fortunes of the two major parties in these four states suggest that this saga of partisan affairs may well continue for some time.

Maybe this is because voters are having difficult time distiguishing between the two parties these days?

Finally, you're losing the messaging war, Mr. President.

The president's overall job approval rating in the poll, conducted separately from Gallup Daily tracking, is 42%. His ratings on three of the issues tested -- foreign affairs, Afghanistan, and taxes -- are within two to four points of that rating. Obama's ratings on the economy and the federal budget deficit, however, are significantly lower than his overall approval -- by 7 and 10 points, respectively.

 

 

"The Saga of Partisan Affairs"

Some highlights from the world of numbers crunching.

Nate Silver: Scott Brown's early 2010 victory may have been an early bell-weather for Democratic losses, but it was an outlier and Brown may be vulnerable:

The tsunami that hit Democrats last month — as large as it was — was remarkably precise and orderly, all things considered: given that the Democrats lost more than 60 seats, they lost almost exactly the 60 seats that you might have expected them to lose based on the overall partisanship of the districts. That did not include seats similar to Massachusetts, where Democrats in fact held on to all 10 congressional districts, even though several of the seats had been considered vulnerable.

Pollster: Americans have been ready for DADT repeal for over a decade.

Some outlets use a favor/oppose construction, others use yes/no or agree/disagree. Some outlets use the word "homosexuals," others use "gays and lesbians." ...

Regardless of the question wording, the basic result is the same. For sixteen years Americans have been supportive of allowing gays and lesbians to openly serve in the military.

PPP: Montana Republicans want former Governor, former insurance lobbyist, and former Bush adviser Marc Racicot as their 2012 Senate candidate challenging Jon Tester:

Most would like to see either Marc Racicot (40%) or Denny Rehberg (37%) end up with the nod. Rehberg has near universal popularity with the Republican base (75/14) and although he gets a lot of 'not sures' 10 years removed from the Governor's office pretty much all Republicans with an opinion about Racicot like him (58/12 favorability). It's hard to imagine anyone else winning the nomination if either of them end up running

Also, they loves themselves some Palin/Huckabee.

Thomas Schaller takes a look at CO, NH, OH, VA in 2010, areas of biggest gain for Democrats in the previous three midterms, and concludes:

...just two years after Obama’s precedent-setting victory, America remains entrenched in a period of partisan dealignment and gridlock, and divided government nationally. Despite steady Republican gains since Ronald Reagan’s 1980 election, followed by a stinging Republican rebuke by a revitalized Democratic Party during the late stages of George W. Bush’s presidency, the shifting fortunes of the two major parties in these four states suggest that this saga of partisan affairs may well continue for some time.

Maybe this is because voters are having difficult time distiguishing between the two parties these days?

Finally, you're losing the messaging war, Mr. President.

The president's overall job approval rating in the poll, conducted separately from Gallup Daily tracking, is 42%. His ratings on three of the issues tested -- foreign affairs, Afghanistan, and taxes -- are within two to four points of that rating. Obama's ratings on the economy and the federal budget deficit, however, are significantly lower than his overall approval -- by 7 and 10 points, respectively.

 

 

"The Saga of Partisan Affairs"

Some highlights from the world of numbers crunching.

Nate Silver: Scott Brown's early 2010 victory may have been an early bell-weather for Democratic losses, but it was an outlier and Brown may be vulnerable:

The tsunami that hit Democrats last month — as large as it was — was remarkably precise and orderly, all things considered: given that the Democrats lost more than 60 seats, they lost almost exactly the 60 seats that you might have expected them to lose based on the overall partisanship of the districts. That did not include seats similar to Massachusetts, where Democrats in fact held on to all 10 congressional districts, even though several of the seats had been considered vulnerable.

Pollster: Americans have been ready for DADT repeal for over a decade.

Some outlets use a favor/oppose construction, others use yes/no or agree/disagree. Some outlets use the word "homosexuals," others use "gays and lesbians." ...

Regardless of the question wording, the basic result is the same. For sixteen years Americans have been supportive of allowing gays and lesbians to openly serve in the military.

PPP: Montana Republicans want former Governor, former insurance lobbyist, and former Bush adviser Marc Racicot as their 2012 Senate candidate challenging Jon Tester:

Most would like to see either Marc Racicot (40%) or Denny Rehberg (37%) end up with the nod. Rehberg has near universal popularity with the Republican base (75/14) and although he gets a lot of 'not sures' 10 years removed from the Governor's office pretty much all Republicans with an opinion about Racicot like him (58/12 favorability). It's hard to imagine anyone else winning the nomination if either of them end up running

Also, they loves themselves some Palin/Huckabee.

Thomas Schaller takes a look at CO, NH, OH, VA in 2010, areas of biggest gain for Democrats in the previous three midterms, and concludes:

...just two years after Obama’s precedent-setting victory, America remains entrenched in a period of partisan dealignment and gridlock, and divided government nationally. Despite steady Republican gains since Ronald Reagan’s 1980 election, followed by a stinging Republican rebuke by a revitalized Democratic Party during the late stages of George W. Bush’s presidency, the shifting fortunes of the two major parties in these four states suggest that this saga of partisan affairs may well continue for some time.

Maybe this is because voters are having difficult time distiguishing between the two parties these days?

Finally, you're losing the messaging war, Mr. President.

The president's overall job approval rating in the poll, conducted separately from Gallup Daily tracking, is 42%. His ratings on three of the issues tested -- foreign affairs, Afghanistan, and taxes -- are within two to four points of that rating. Obama's ratings on the economy and the federal budget deficit, however, are significantly lower than his overall approval -- by 7 and 10 points, respectively.

 

 

"The Saga of Partisan Affairs"

Some highlights from the world of numbers crunching.

Nate Silver: Scott Brown's early 2010 victory may have been an early bell-weather for Democratic losses, but it was an outlier and Brown may be vulnerable:

The tsunami that hit Democrats last month — as large as it was — was remarkably precise and orderly, all things considered: given that the Democrats lost more than 60 seats, they lost almost exactly the 60 seats that you might have expected them to lose based on the overall partisanship of the districts. That did not include seats similar to Massachusetts, where Democrats in fact held on to all 10 congressional districts, even though several of the seats had been considered vulnerable.

Pollster: Americans have been ready for DADT repeal for over a decade.

Some outlets use a favor/oppose construction, others use yes/no or agree/disagree. Some outlets use the word "homosexuals," others use "gays and lesbians." ...

Regardless of the question wording, the basic result is the same. For sixteen years Americans have been supportive of allowing gays and lesbians to openly serve in the military.

PPP: Montana Republicans want former Governor, former insurance lobbyist, and former Bush adviser Marc Racicot as their 2012 Senate candidate challenging Jon Tester:

Most would like to see either Marc Racicot (40%) or Denny Rehberg (37%) end up with the nod. Rehberg has near universal popularity with the Republican base (75/14) and although he gets a lot of 'not sures' 10 years removed from the Governor's office pretty much all Republicans with an opinion about Racicot like him (58/12 favorability). It's hard to imagine anyone else winning the nomination if either of them end up running

Also, they loves themselves some Palin/Huckabee.

Thomas Schaller takes a look at CO, NH, OH, VA in 2010, areas of biggest gain for Democrats in the previous three midterms, and concludes:

...just two years after Obama’s precedent-setting victory, America remains entrenched in a period of partisan dealignment and gridlock, and divided government nationally. Despite steady Republican gains since Ronald Reagan’s 1980 election, followed by a stinging Republican rebuke by a revitalized Democratic Party during the late stages of George W. Bush’s presidency, the shifting fortunes of the two major parties in these four states suggest that this saga of partisan affairs may well continue for some time.

Maybe this is because voters are having difficult time distiguishing between the two parties these days?

Finally, you're losing the messaging war, Mr. President.

The president's overall job approval rating in the poll, conducted separately from Gallup Daily tracking, is 42%. His ratings on three of the issues tested -- foreign affairs, Afghanistan, and taxes -- are within two to four points of that rating. Obama's ratings on the economy and the federal budget deficit, however, are significantly lower than his overall approval -- by 7 and 10 points, respectively.

 

 

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