It was a very good year for Democrats in both the House and the Senate.  Democrats in the House gained 30 seats using a combination of candidate funds and independent expenditures.  The largest sources for the independent expenditures were the national committees: the NRCC, RSCC, RNC, DCCC, and DSCC.  In at least one race, CA-11, the efforts and money of environmental groups paid off in ousting Richard Pombo.

Although, Federal Election Commission reporting (www. fec.gov) is not quite complete, a highly accurate picture of both national trends and individual races is clearly available.  Among the results so far, 55 Democratic challengers raised at least $1 million but slightly over 100 failed to raise $100,000.  About half of those who raised $1 million won but three candidates with smaller bank rolls managed to upset incumbent Republicans: Carol Shea-Porter ($287,197 with no help from the DCCC or any outside expenditures), David Loesback ($443,273 through October 18) and Nancy Boyda ($702,260 but significant late help from the DCCC of over $360,000).

Many individual Democrats were substantially outspent by incumbent Republicans and still managed to win.  These would include Chris Murphy of Connecticut, Carol Shea-Porter, and Joe Courtney.  I haven't done full work ups outside of New England but this is an important fact.  In 2004, virtually no incumbents lost and virtually no one with a money deficit managed to win.

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Your guilty conscience may force you to vote Democratic, but deep down inside you secretly long for a cold-hearted Republican to lower taxes, brutalize criminals, and rule you like a king. That's why I did this: to protect you from yourselves. Now if you'll excuse me, I have a city to run. - Sideshow Bob, as Mayor of Springfield in the Simpsons

Political systems are built through symbols, and no symbol has been more pernicious than the idea of a moderate Republican.  Since 1964, the Republican Party has gradually turned itself into a neo-Confederate group of extremists attached to a political network of partisan pagan church groups.  This transformation has happened explicitly, with a bevy of tax breaks directed at white churches, or implicitly, such as when Reagan opened his 1980 campaign at the site where three civil rights workers were murdered.  Moderate Republicans - like Lowell Weicker, who did stand up to Nixon - gradually died out, replaced by leashed poodles who substituted affability and pork for moderation.  Chris Shays, Nancy Johnson, and Rob Simmons are such figures.  

Moderate Republicans are a dangerous symbol because they are a mirage that tricks liberal and moderate voters into thinking that the natural governing center is an affable extremist.  Put a 'moderate' face on extremist policies or a party, and all of a sudden you have a country built on, say, corporate trade agreements that are reviled by the public at large.  Or you have the war on drugs, which is nonsensical but considered part of the natural governing tapestry, or 2 million prisoners costing America hundreds of billions of dollars a year, or any number of crazy policies that are considered moderate but are in fact simply elitist in orientation.

David Gergen is the epitome of the adult in charge, the governing force without which adults will not trust you.  Air America had 'moderate Republicans' running the show, and large Democratic donor networks have been stymied by donors who think that moderate Republicans exist and want to hire them to run a liberal movement (hint, it doesn't work).  People like Tom Kean Sr. are a good example of the problem - he's loved and revered by liberals in New Jersey, and was put on the 9/11 Commission as a respected character, and then he goes out an engages in a dishonest smear campaign to peg Bill Clinton as responsible for 9/11 through an ABC propaganda piece, all to help his son get elected in New Jersey.

Killing the idea of the moderate Republican is critical if we are to convince the country that progressives can govern.  As we've seen, right now journalists, opinion-leaders, donors, and politicians do not think that the hawkish pro-corporate bipartisan consensus will be disturbed if Democrats take over.  Already we have Thomas Riehle trying to say that it is the netroots that want a targeted strategy versus James Carville-types who want to widen the playing field.  We have stories in the New York Times about New Democrats ascendant and the progressives being beaten back in a more moderate party, and Harold Ford splashed on the cover of Newsweek as the face of a new and more conserative party.  The LieberDems are licking their chops at a perceived ability for Joe to rule the Senate if he is reelected (prepare for a bad Q-Poll tomorrow, kids, polling director Doug Schwartz ain't a fan of Lamont).  Certain House Democrats are panting at the ability to reach out to the Republicans as one of their first acts in office, to show a new spirit of openness to their GOP Beltway boyfriends who have been abusing them.

Fortunately, even as power players preen about how close they are to moderate Republicans in their style and attitude, the electoral fortunes of the 'adults' is waning.  The most potent symbol of the moderate Republican up for office is Tom Kean Jr.  He's the poster boy for faux moderate, extremely affable and likeable, and culturally liberal in that he likes Starbucks coffee and doesn't belong to a mega-church.  He's facing Bob Menendez, a candidate who has always had overblown rumors of corruption surrounding him, which is actually standard for New Jersey politicians.  If any matchup were to deliver a Senate seat to a moderate Republican, it would be this one.

And yet, New Jersey is a Democratic state, with leaners likely to go for the Democrat, especially in a year like this one, and a traditional pollster undersampling of Democrats.  Remember in 2004, when Bush was totally almost going to capture New Jersey, until he got blown out?  I would peg Tennessee as the opposite, with all the optimism for Harold Ford somewhat misplaced (I'd love to be proved wrong, of course).  And with Menendez surging in the polls after having run a standard campaign, it's looking like it's becoming increasingly impossible for any Republicans to get the critical cross-over votes they need to stay competitive in blue states.  

That Kean is losing is a big deal, because it shows voters have moved away from at least one of their illusions.  Tom Kean Sr is a beloved figure in New Jersey politics, a statesman who parlayed a genteel affability into a Governorship in the 1980s and a storied place on the 9/11 Commission.  He was considered for a time Presidential timber, and he's now the model of bipartisan honor and integrity, one of the last good Republicans.  He's a dream, an "independent, honorable public servant, the kind that citizens admire and long for", as New Jersey's master of the obvious pundit David Rebovich puts it.

Of course, there's another thread to Kean Sr.  He won his governor's race in 1981 by an extremely narrow margin using hired racists thugs to suppress minority turnout, his fiscal policies destroyed New Jersey's budget picture, his family shakes down corporate contributors, and he dishonestly pushed the film 'The Path to 9/11', a historical travesty.  His legendary sheen has both threads running in parallel, the race-tinged corruption playing footsie with the bipartisan ethical righteousness.  In 1971, Kean made his first important political move, becoming speaker of the Assembly even though he was a Republican in the minority party.  The myth is that Kean was so respected on both sides of the aisle that he was a consensus pick; the reality is that he cut a deal with a white corrupt Hudson County politician, David Friedland, who couldn't ascend to the speakership because of a loan-sharking scandal and then threw his support to Kean to keep the a black Democrat from becoming the Speaker.

And it was off to the races for Kean Sr, moving quickly to the Governor's mansion and then to a storied place as an elder wiseman for the nation.  His son, who is mostly a lightweight in the State Senate and similarly affable, simply can't get above the mid-forties in the polls.  His avoidance of Iraq and his refusal to disavow Bush has hurt him badly among cross-over voters.  The nasty core of faux moderate Republicans - affability over substance - is dying out.  Iraq is too bloody and obviously wrong for Democrats to be fooled anymore.

So the 'moderate Republican' adult aesthetic - greatly weakened - may still be in charge of DC on November 8th in the form of Beltway journalists, politicians, and lobbyists, but the people are gradually voting it out of power.

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Here are two more cases of entitled Republican syndrome.  Chris Shays, who has a little problem with disclosure and luxury trips paid for by strange political groups in violation of House Ethics rules, will probably lash out in a few hours after his opponent presses him on this.

And then there's Nancy Johnson.  Check out her ad against Chris Murphy.

This ad has the advantage of being stupid, crass, and memorable all at once, the perfect vehicle for an entited and bratty Nancy Johnson.  Her opponent, Chris Murphy, is pretty awesome.  You should volunteer for his campaign. GOTV against tacky ads!

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There are a host of moderate-ish right-wingers in trouble in the Northeast, and they are for lack of a better word freaking out.  Joe Lieberman is the most prominent, and even kiss-ass columnist David Broder calls him angry in his most recent column ('Lieberman is an exhausted veteran, barely able to conceal his irritation at having to fight for a seat he feels that he owns.')  But there are others.  Connecticut Congresscritters Rob Simmons, Chris Shays, and Nancy Johnson are not just in danger of losing, they are incredibly angry that they are facing challenges from the left.  

Sue Kelly in New York's 19th, facing a stiff challenge from John Hall, is really upset, as is Randy Kuhl in the 29th of New York.    I'm sure Mike Ferguson, in New Jersey's 7th, is irritated he has to face a competitive challenge from Linda Stender, and the Pennsylvania Specter Republicans are also frustrated.  

Republicans have had a structural advantage in elections because Democrats in blue states will often cross over to vote for a Republican they like, whereas in much of the solid red South, Republicans will not support Democrats for Federal office.  That crossover vote is now dying in the Northeast, as voters are connecting the right-wing war to the increased costs of fuel, housing, education, health care, and increased income disparities.  

Moderate Republicans are used to having it both ways.  They get to be in the majority, sit on powerful committees, and yet the also are feted by groups like the Sierra Club or NARAL, depending on which issue they pretend to buck their leadership on.  Rarely do they face challenges.  They like living in Washington, they like the junkets and they like being called 'Congressman' and having their egos managed by lobbyists and staffers.  Many of them don't want to live at home in a piddly law practice or in retirement, and that's why they are still doing what they do.

That's their motivation, and why they are lashing out so viciously and belying their moderate image.  This cycle, the dynamic is so different, and these candidates are confused and irritated.  They are being made to work.  'How dare you!  The nerve!' is the operative slogan.  I don't have much to offer beyond this insight.  These aren't moderates, they are just entited, bratty childish power-worshippers.  And appealing and charismatic challengers are forcing many of them to work for the first time in a long time.  Good times.

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I'm going to be spending some time with Chris Murphy today, and I'm wondering if you know anything about him.  He's running in the Connecticut fifth district against Nancy Johnson.  It's a competitive race and a real national battleground this year, which is unusual for Connecticut.

So tell me about Chris.

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