New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo announced his plans to run for governor today, releasing this video about his plan for New York:

The Plan from Andrew Cuomo on Vimeo.

Four Republicans are running for governor, but Rick Lazio (whom you may remember as Hillary Clinton's opponent in the 2000 Senate race) is favored to win the nomination. It hardly matters, since Cuomo beats Lazio and other potential Republican opponents easily. We are fortunate that current Governor David Paterson decided against seeking another term. The Democratic Governors Association won't have to spend money defending the New York seat now. We will need the DGA for several other tough governor's races around the country.

A new Quinnipiac University poll (1,528 RVs, April 1- 5, MOE +/- 2.5%) confirms what otherpolls have found: Gov. David Paterson is remarkably unpopular in New York, would lose a primary to Andrew Cuomo and would lose the general election to Rudy Giuliani.

New York State voters disapprove 60 - 28 percent of the job Gov. David Paterson is doing, the lowest approval ever for a New York Governor, and say 63 - 22 percent that he does not deserve to be elected to a full four-year term, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. [...]

New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, with a near-record high 75 - 14 percent approval rating, tops Paterson in a Democratic primary 61 - 18 percent.

In a general election, Republican Rudolph Giuliani, the former New York City mayor, tops Paterson 53 - 32 percent.

There is one question that Quinnipiac polls but that has not been polled before to my knowledge, which is whether Paterson should step aside and not run for a full term next year. The response is devastating for Team Paterson.

Gov. Paterson's approval is so low that he should announce now that he won't run for election to a four-year term next year, 53 percent of voters tell the independent Quinnipiac University poll, while 39 percent say he can restore his reputation and should run next year. Even Democrats say 49 - 45 percent that he should drop out of the race now.

Paterson's problems have now clearly transcended his mishandling of the appointment of the Senate seat. He is now being judged more on his actual job as governor than anything else but I have to think his negatives are exagerrated by the contrast with the extraordinarily popular Cuomo, whose profile has only risen in the wake of the AIG bonus scandal. Check out Cuomo's numbers:

"This poll has nothing but good news for Cuomo. His job approval is stratospheric, duplicating his 76 percent approval in February. And in election matchups, he leads Paterson more than 3-1 and shows he's the Democrat who can beat Giuliani," Carroll said.

New York State voters give Cuomo a 63 - 17 percent favorability rating, with a 43 - 33 percent positive among Republicans.

Something tells me David Paterson is second guessing his decision not to appoint Cuomo to the Senate seat.

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No matter how far behind him the Caroline Kennedy mess gets, David Paterson just can't seem to gain any new upward momentum in favorability, job approval or head to head re-election match-ups. According to a new Siena Research Institute Poll (626 RVs, March 16-18, MOE +/- 3.9%):

Paterson is viewed favorably by 29 percent of voters and unfavorably by 58 percent, down from last month‟s 40-47 percent rating. His job performance rating is 19 percent positive, 78 percent negative down from 28-69 percent last month. Only 14 percent of voters are prepared to elect Paterson as Governor in 2010, compared to 67 percent who prefer "someone else." That‟s down from 19-57 percent last month. [...]

In a hypothetical 2010 Democratic primary for Governor, Cuomo leads Paterson 67-17 percent, up from last month's 53-27 percent. In December Paterson led 49-26 percent. In a potential general election matchup, Giuliani beats Paterson 56-33 percent, up from 51-36 percent last month. Paterson led 51-38 percent in December. Cuomo leads Giuliani 51-41 percent, similar to last month's 51-38 percent.

A Siena spokesman calls the speed with which Paterson's numbers are falling "staggering." While there is more than a year and a half until the election, it's difficult to see how he turns this around and really underscores how perilous being a governor these days can be.

Paterson's mis-handled Senate appointment is widely considered responsible for setting this downward spiral in motion and it turns out Paterson's unpopularity may be rubbing off on the recipient of that appointment, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. As of now, the best Gillibrand can do against a hypothetical match-up with former Governor George Pataki is a tie.

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has a 26-20 percent favorable rating (down from 34-20 percent last month), with 54 percent of voters having no opinion. Former Governor George Pataki has a 49-41 percent favorable rating. While 23 percent of voters are prepared to elect Gillibrand in 2010, 37 percent prefer ,,someone else.‟ In hypothetical match-ups, Gillibrand beats Rep. Peter King 47-23 percent (up from 40-27 percent last month) and is in a dead heat (41-41 percent) against Pataki.

No doubt this tie is largely a function of name recognition but look at that trend. What is it that Sen. Gillibrand has done to earn a dropping favorability rating? Certainly nothing except be inextricably linked to the toxic Paterson. Gillibrand has plenty of time to create new associations with voters, but I don't think Paterson has the same luxury. At some point, a decision is going to have to be made and I hope all parties agree that Paterson must drop out and endorse Cuomo for governor.

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Let's concede one point: winter 2009 is not a good time to be a governor. There are budget shortfalls, which require hard choices to cut popular programs and impose unpopular tax increases; no wonder so many are fleeing to the comfort of the administration. But having said that, it takes a special skill to plunge to a level of popularity below the guy who solicited prostitutes and was the focus of a federal sting.

The latest Marist College poll finds Gov. David Patterson's job approval at an historic low, the worst job approval of any governor since they started polling 27 years ago (via NYT):

Only 26 percent of the 1,045 registered voters surveyed said Mr. Paterson was doing either a good or excellent job, while 71 percent said he was doing a fair or poor job. Even Eliot Spitzer had a higher approval rating a year ago, 30 percent, when he was the governor amid his prostitution scandal. The poll results indicate that voters believe Mr. Paterson is working hard and understands the state's problems, but suggests people do not have confidence in his ability to lead.

In head-to-head match-ups both in a Democratic primary against Andrew Cuomo and in a general election against Rudy Giuliani, Patterson gets killed, performing even worse than in previous polls.

Among Democrats, Attorney General Andrew M. Cuomo trounces Mr. Paterson in a hypothetical primary matchup, 62 to 26 percent. In a general election, Rudolph W. Giuliani would beat Mr. Paterson, 53 to 38 percent, according to the poll.

And how does Cuomo perform against hypothetical Republican opponents?

If Republican Rick Lazio were to campaign against Democratic New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, Cuomo would defeat his Republican opponent hands down. 71% of the state's electorate report they would back Cuomo while just 20% would vote for Lazio. Cuomo doesn't do quite as well against Giuliani, yet he still receives majority support and has a wide lead against the former mayor. 56% of voters report Cuomo would be their candidate of choice in this hypothetical matchup. This compares with 39% who would cast their ballot for Giuliani.

I don't know how seriously to take Giuliani's numbers against Patterson; we all remember his heights of popularity nationally when the GOP presidential primary began. But from my perspective, Andrew Cuomo is now required to run to ensure this seat is safe. He was the people's choice for Senator and now he's the people's choice for Governor. It's hard to imagine Patterson recovering from this.

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A new Quinnipiac Poll spells trouble for David Paterson in the 2010 gubernatorial primary against Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. It's a long ways away, of course, but this poll makes clear that New Yorkers just can't seem to let go of the bad taste the Caroline Kennedy debacle left in their mouths.

The Caroline Kennedy caper continues to bedevil New York Gov. David Paterson as he trails Attorney General Andrew Cuomo 55 - 23 in an early look at a 2010 Democratic primary for Governor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. [...]

New York State voters approve 45 - 41 percent of the job Paterson is doing, his lowest approval rating in 11 months as Governor and down from 50 - 30 percent January 26.

Voters disapprove 52 - 35 percent of the way Paterson handled the appointment of a U.S. Senator to fill Hillary Clinton's seat. Disapproval is similar across the political spectrum.

These numbers represent a decline for Paterson since a Sierra Research Institute poll taken in late January.

Quinnipiac also finds that Paterson performs far more weakly against Rudy Giuliani in a hypothetical match-up (43-43) than Cuomo does (51-37,) numbers that, if they persist, should compel Cuomo to get in the race next year. Of course, if Paterson had done the thing that was both in his own interest politically and that the people of New York wanted, which was to name Cuomo, his biggest primary threat, to the Senate seat, this would be a moot point. Ironically, in what turned out to be an overly arduous attempt to make the safest choice possible and to "first do no harm", Paterson ended up endangering his own career.

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