That the Northeast has been trending blue in recent cycles is self evidently true. Will it continue in 2010?

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the <a href="http://wiki.opencongress.org/wiki/Project:RaceTracker">2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress</a> for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, Swing State Project and Open Left)

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The Hill published an article highlighting some of the fundraising efforts of freshmen Democrats in the House.  Apparently, many are doing quite well.  David Loebsack (IA-02) has raised about $71,000.  Kirsten Gillebrand (NY-20) has raised $65,000 in PAC money alone.  Earl Perlmutter (CO-07) has raised $79,000.  Charlie Wilson (OH-06) has raised $34,000.  Paul Hodes has raised $35,000.  Jason Altmire (PA-04) and Patrick Murphy (PA-08) have both raised $50,000 in PAC money alone.  Zack Space (OH-18) and Steven Kagen (WI-08) have both raised $35,000 in PAC money.

As far as simple financial numbers go, this is good news.  All of these candidates are vulnerable to some degree.  So, if all of these House members are already off to good starts, they may be able to force out potentially strong challenges early on.

But the article also has some worrying relevations.  For one thing, Nancy Boyda (KS-02) has raised only $13,000.  Considering the presidential vote in her district (Bush won it by 20 points), Boyda is probably one of our top five most vulnerable Democrats.  Plus, she will not have Sebelius' coattails helping her and will instead have to contend with the Republican tide at the top of the ticket from the eventual Republican nominee and Senator Pat Roberts. Finally, she will possibly face a rematch against Jim Ryun. More over the flip...

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A couple of pieces of polling released today offer further proof that Democrats are not just performing well generally but are actually performing well in the races that could decide the fate of the United States House.

In North Carolina's 11th district, a district George W. Bush carried with 57 percent of the vote in 1004, incumbent GOP Rep. Charles Taylor's attepts to paint Democratic challenger Heath Shuler as a "San Francisco liberal" allied with Nancy Pelosi have fallen on deaf ears. The survey of 731 likely voters conducted by OnPoint Polling and Research shows Shuler leading Taylor by a 48 percent to 43 percent margin, similar to the 46 percent to 42 percent spread as was found last month by Public Policy Polling.

Up in New Hampshire, where Paul Hodes' Netroots-endorsed campaign against Republican Congressman Charlie Bass barely cracks Chuck Todd's Top-50 House races list, an Anzalone Liszt Research survey of likely voters finds the race to be a dead heat, with Bass at 43 percent and Hodes at 42 percent. According to the press release by the Hodes' camp, Hodes' tie comes even though the likely voter model showed a GOP registration edge.

As I noted last month, while it is a great sign for the Democrats that candidates in individual races, not just the generic congressional ballot, are running competitively, the party cannot and must not lose sight of the fact that these candidates are not above 50 percent -- and even if they were, a hefty lead this far out can dissipate rather quickly (just ask Bob Casey). So though there is no question that the Democrats are in better standing than the Republicans in the battle for control of the House in the 110th Congress, there is still a lot of work to do over the next two and a half months. To make a difference today, head over to Combined Netroots, Blue America or any other number of Act Blue pages raising money for Democrats this fall.

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[cross-posted from Blue Mass Group]

With a fundraising reporting deadline coming up on August 23, I wanted to fill MyDD readers in on the Congressional race in NH-02, where Democrat Paul Hodes is attempting to knock off Charlie "Catch and Release" Bass.  If you are so inclined, you may donate to Paul's campaign at the netroots ActBlue page.  [Or at the BMG Act Blue page! --ed.] [Sorry, should have mentioned that.  What happened to the link? -DaveMB]

The last poll on the race from UNH was disappointing, giving Bass a 53-25 lead.  This post, from a blogger named NH-02 Progressive, puts the most positive possible spin on the result.  The poll shows that Hodes' name recognition is still very bad, and that voters are not yet identifying Bass with Bush.  Hence, Hodes needs money -- he has a significant amount but needs DCCC help and a lot more donations.

Rahm Emmanuel just did a big fundraiser for Hodes in Boston and the people at Swing State Project are sounding a bit more excited about the race.  Some netroots money may help keep the momentum going.  If you are within driving distance of Keene and feel like canvassing, the Cheshire County Democrats are doing some there this Sunday.

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CRASHING THE STATES is off to a great start!

From Lamont to Tester to Courage to Webb, we're raring to go.

Already, we've been contacted by a number of campaigns and candidates eager to work with us and bloggers willing to help in a myriad of capacities. Thank you all so much for the donations many of you have already sent. They have enabled us to arrange some basic pre-production, as well as retain legal counsel to help guide us through a 'series of tubes' known as FEC regulations we'd like to follow so we don't get run over by the 'dump truck' of election law--and the best part is, our lawyer is a fellow blogger!  You've enabled us to get a GREAT start for this project, and we wouldn't be nearly where we are without your initial support.

So what now? We'll tell ya...

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