Some Montana & South Dakota Exit Polls

From Marc Ambinder:

73% of Clinton voters in South Dakota say they'd support Obama in the fall versus just 13% who say they'd support McCain. Still, 55% say they would not be satisfied if Obama were the nominee.

** In Montana, a quarter of Clinton voters say they'd vote for McCain and 52% say they're unhappy with Obama as the nominee.

From MSNBC, Clinton supporters in South Dakota overwhelmingly want Obama to pick her as his VP nominee 68%-28%; by a 56%-40% margin, Obama supporters want him not to.

Also, from Mark Halperin:

MSNBC: A majority of Montana Democrats said a candidate's ability to "bring change" mattered most to them. Read more.

ABC: About half of South Dakota voters, slightly more in Montana, say change is the main attribute they're looking for in a candidate.

We already know that Obama is probably going to win Montana and Hillary has, at worst, a shot at South Dakota and at best, if the ARG poll is anything close to reality, she's a shoe-in, but this is an interesting catch by Ben Smith on one thing that would happen in the event of a South Dakota win for Clinton:

If Clinton wins South Dakota, the senator -- who has endorsed Obama -- will supporter her, he tells a local paper.

Sheesh, wasn't really anticipating any Obama to Clinton switches tonight.

Polls close in South Dakota at 9pm Eastern (although most of the state, which is in the central time zone, just closed at 8pm) and in Montana at 10pm Eastern. In the scheme of things, probably a good thing psychologically for the final result of the night...the final result of this incredible nomination process...to be an Obama victory.

There's more...

Bill Courts OJ Jury, Area 51 Vote!!

   http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/26/b ill.clinton.mon/index.html

   Here we have it folks. The latest excuse from the Clinton campaign, coming from the Big Dog himself. It's not that Hillary has run a poor campaign, it's not that Obama beat her throughout red, blue and purple America. It's now a COVER UP that will stop Hillary from being the Democratic nominee.

There's more...

Obama Up 17 Points Ahead of Montana Primary

Via Markos comes news of Mason-Dixon polling out of Montana:

Barack Obama has a big lead over Hillary Rodham Clinton in Montana's June 3 Democratic presidential primary, a Gazette State Poll shows.

Obama leads Clinton by 52 percent to 35 percent among likely Democratic voters, with 13 percent undecided in the poll, which was taken May 19-21. The Democratic primary portion of the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

As Markos notes, Montana is an overwhelmingly White state. Likewise, it's one of the poorer states in the nation. So Obama's 17-point lead in the state seems to undercut the notion that he performs particularly poorly among working class Whites outside of Appalachia (a fact underscored by Obama's similarly large victory in Oregon last week).

And just to crunch the numbers, if the primary results look something like this come the first Tuesday in June, Obama should net something like 9 of the 16 pledged delegates up for grab, though and 8-8 split of delegates is entirely possible, too. In order to get much higher than that, Obama would have to get closer to two-thirds of the vote (or about 65 percent), which doesn't appear terribly likely at this point.

There's more...

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