Here's how to win control of the US House (many sports cliches!)

1)  Take a free pass.  The GOP has not contested several seats, and has practically handed FL-16, TX-22, and AZ-8 to the Dems.  In addition, OH-18 looks good after (still) Rep. Ney decided he wouldn't run again.

2)  Avoid turnovers.  The Democrats are on offense, but it is important to lose a handful or less of Dem-held seats.

3)  Hit the threes.  CT, Penn, IN, and NY have at least three vulnerable incumbents each.  Winning seats there will be key if the Democrats want to go +15 or better on 11/7.

4)  Win more Opens than Tiger.  At least 10 open seats can be had over and above the ones listed earlier.  If the Dems win half of them, they will be in great shape.

5)  Win a couple of buzzer beaters.  The Republican majority was built on many close wins.  It is time for the Democrats to win a number of tight races.

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And Amy Klobuchar is all out of gum. From the first non-automated, public, independent telephone poll on the race (seriously):Star Tribune Minnesota Poll. July 6-11, 2006. N=813 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 3.4 (for all likely voters).

Trial heat
Klobuchar: 50
Kennedy: 31
Fitzgerald: 3

Favorables
Klobuchar: 46% favorable, 12% unfavorable
Kennedy: 37% favorable, 27% unfavorable
Fitzgerald: 6% favorable, 2% unfavorable These numbers strongly conflict with Rasmussen, which has shown Klobuchar consistently ahead but by nowhere near this amount. However, in another way it does not surprise me at all. Mark Kennedy, who is supposed to be a darling of the conservative movement, significantly under-performed compared to Bush in his re-election to congress in 2004. In that race, his opponent was Petty Wetterling, who Klobuchar was comfortably trouncing in the Democratic primary before Wetterling decided to run for Congress again instead. Since Kennedy was under-performing compared to Bush in 2004, and since Bush currently has an approval rating of 34% in Minnesota, how well should we really expect Kennedy to do against Klobuchar in 2006, especially considering that Klobuchar easily dispatched of the candidate who gave Kennedy so many problems in 2004? In this sense, a blowout does not seem unlikely to me at all. We do need a second poll to confirm these numbers.

That this is the first independent, public, non-automated telephone poll in the race is also telling. My previous research has shown that there is no connection between how important a Senate race is and how much the media establishment covers that race. While some races, such as Pennsylvania, have been polled into the ground, it is absurd that we had to wait until mid-July to receive the first standard poll on this race. Personally, I think it is a sign that the media establishment has abandoned their duties as servants of the public interet.

With Minnesota at least temporarily seeming like a blowout, what are the Senate targets left for Republicans? New Jersey is also slipping away from their grasp, and the only information we have on Washington comes from Republican pollsters. Maryland might be a race if Mfume wins the primary, especially given Mfume's weak fundraising. However, even listing these four states--the only states that Republicans can still seriously lay claim to targeting--shows that they are all blue states. I see no real way that a Republican can pick up a seat in a Blue State during a year when a sitting Republican President has an approval rating in the 30's. Given this, Republican chances to pick up even a single Democratic seat in the Senate this year appear to have all but disappeared. As we extend our targets to places such as Arizona and Virginia that were not supposed to be close for Republicans, we further drain Republican resources from states like Washington, Missouri, Montana and Ohio. The rout appears to be on. Can it become large enough o retake control of the Senate?

This is from a February 11 primary debate in Virginia, MN, up north in the Iron Range. I don't know posting transcripts is frowned upon or not. Most of these diaries are about opinion and strategizing and what not, so I'm only gonna post the DFL candidates' opening statements for now. You can vote in the poll about whether you'd like to see more of this. WARNING: These are LONG opening statements. They got about five minutes each to introduce themselves. My purpose here is just to give everyone an idea of what Democratic candidates, in this case, Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar, and veterinarian/philanthropist Ford Bell are saying out on the hustings right now, and an opportunity to comment/critique their messaging/framing. Minnesota is an open seat with a competitive race this fall. With no incumbents running, and both DFLers coming from outside the beltway, I thought this might be interesting. The next installment (should you want one) will be their answers to national security questions, including warrantless wiretapping, Iraq troop drawdowns, and the PATRIOT Act.

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