MI-Gov: September 14 EPIC/MRA Poll Analysis
by whogotthegravy, Thu Sep 14, 2006 at 08:14:37 PM EDT
This diary entry is a summary. Please see the full analysis for a more in-depth examination.
The Detroit News/WXYZ-TV EPIC/MRA poll just released new information on MI-Gov and MI-Sen. Here's my election analysis based on the numbers:
Keep in mind that there are a lot of problems with the methodology of polling in general (question wording bias, bias because of the kinds of people who decide to respond, bias in phone ownership, answers differing from actual voting behavior, question order influences). On top of that, no poll accounts for voter energy and election day GOTV. Finally, remember what Mark Grebner had to say about ballot proposals.
In this particular poll, 57% females were questioned as opposed to 43% males. The fact that females were more likely to answer the poll tells us two things. It tells us that the method used to pick respondents is not representative of the population. It also explains some of the difference in favor of Granholm and Stabenow (since women tend to favor Granholm and Stabenow by a greater margin than men).
With all of that in mind, onto the numbers...






