A conservative blogger I know started a meme examining the milestones of her life in relation to the presidential elections.

I picked up the meme, with a bit of a different focus (her blog is mostly about her Christian faith).

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     According to the Republicans, Senator Barack Obama is the most liberal Senator ever. As the Republican shrills made the talk show rounds the common theme was a familiar refrain. Senator___ (you fill in the blank with any Democratic nominee) is the most liberal Senator ever. I am not a believer in déjà vu, but I can't help but think I have heard this line before. Oh yeah now I remember; how about the last 20 years! It seems like whenever the Democrats nominate someone that person is immediately labeled the most liberal Governor, Senator, etc. ever.

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Since projecting Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc. based on today's numbers is all the rage, it might be helpful to reflect on the fact that presidential polls predict nothing in late July, much less in May.

Dukakis Lead Widens, According to New Poll

Published: July 26, 1988

LEAD: In the aftermath of the Democratic National Convention, the party's nominee, Michael S. Dukakis, has expanded his lead among registered voters over Vice President Bush, the probable Republican nominee, according to a Gallup Poll.

In the aftermath of the Democratic National Convention, the party's nominee, Michael S. Dukakis, has expanded his lead among registered voters over Vice President Bush, the probable Republican nominee, according to a Gallup Poll.

This was among the findings of a national public opinion poll of 948 registered voters conducted late last week for Newsweek magazine by the Gallup Organization. The telephone interviews took place on July 21, which was the last night of the convention, and on the night after that.

Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred to see Mr. Bush win. The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Read the rest here:

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.ht ml?res=940DEFD7113EF935A15754C0A96E94826 0

The basic point is that anyone referencing presidential polling in May as an argument towards "electability" is either being dishonest or hasn't the slightest idea what they're talking about.  The only value of these polls is to help candidates choose where to spend their time in their general election campaign.  That's it.

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There was another time when a leading Democratic candidate, in an eerie parallel to Barack Obama, was recognized as a liberal by his supporters, riding a wave of youth support,  had a string of primary wins  and had polls showing that he beat his potential November opponent in the polls. (link)

Poll Shows Dukakis Leads Bush; Many Reagan Backers Shift Sides

By E. J. DIONNE JR.
Published: May 17, 1988

Michael S. Dukakis is capitalizing on deep public doubts about Vice President Bush and the Reagan Administration's handling of key issues and has emerged as the early favorite for the Presidential election in November, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.

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I was thinking that candidates Clinton, Obama, and Edwards are reminiscent, respectively, of Dukakis, JFK, and RFK.

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