Failure is necessary for success.  I'm going to talk about netroots failures as a way of describing why Ned Lamont's campaign is different.  At this point, I have a fairly wide political network, and so I'm going to draw conclusions based on facts that might be unpleasant for you to hear.  Believe me or don't, but I really believe the conversation about our political competence is important to have if we are going to dedicate resources to races.  Without that conversation, the binary approach of 'You suck' from the right and 'We're awesome' from left-wing defenders will be it, and we who have donated so much will gradually lose trust in our collective judgment.  So the conversation I hope to spur is about how we can increase our success rate in moving the progressive agenda forward.

And what better time to start this conversation than after a real political victory?  Ok, so here goes.

I saw many long-time Democrats at the Connecticut state Democratic convention wearing buttons that said 'George Bush's Favorite Democrat' with a picture of Bush kissing Lieberman.  Whether that expression first appeared online or not, what is important is that the narrative is the same online and offline.  We are helping to drive this process.  That picture is something we kept alive and kept talking about.  And the Connecticut political establishment agrees that Lieberman is out of touch and bad for the state, and many of them read the blogs.  So politically, the $205K the netroots has pumped into Connecticut was very much worth it because it helps move a progressive agenda.  Jane Harman may lose her place on the Intelligence Committee, and the blogs are whipping the net neutrality issue precisely because we are playing in races like this.  If we want a progressive America, more races like this are the way to go.

So let's look at the following races, three that we played a significant role in and one that we did not.  I'll start with the one we didn't work on, and my own failure of judgment in that race.

Matt Brown: Matt Brown ran against Sheldon Whitehouse for the Senate nomination in Rhode Island.  I really wanted us to go in on this race, because from what I've been told from savvy progressive Rhode Island sources, Whitehouse is very much a problematic machine Democrat who will have a tough time beating Lincoln Chafee.  Brown to me seemed progressive (though I should have known better since he quietly supported the DLC in 2004).  However, there was no netroots in the state, except for one anti-Brown blog, and Brown's campaign, while good at outreach to national blogs, had no follow-through.  I was thankfully overruled by the others in charge of the netroots page.

Ciro Rodriguez:  This race was an excellent and ideologically ripe attempt to kick out a Bush Democrat from the House.  There was no netroots presence and no blogging in the district.  Moveon and DFA had basically no membership in the area.  The campaign staff was completely incompetent and unable to run a real field operation or an appropriate media campaign in a low turnout election.  The candidate was an incredibly nice man, but he had never run a competitive election.  It was unserious genial Mom and Pop against professionals.  The lack of political competence was well-known among labor circles but that was never communicated to the netroots.  There was no overlap between the narrative online and the field or media campaigns.

Paul Hackett:  This race was an excellent and ideologically ripe attempt to get rid of a pathetic and corrupt Republican in a vulnerable red district.  There was a strong netroots presence, including a blog focusing on the district, a coherent Ohio blogosphere and several professional political blogger/operatives on the ground.  While the campaign staff was hostile to the netroots and lacked the ability to pull in the incredible resources flowing its way in the final days, there was a complete overlap between the narrative online and the field and media campaigns.  The candidate was a neophyte but incredibly talented, and because of the local blogs and the candidate's personal charisma, the internet drove local and eventual national coverage.

Ned Lamont:  This race is an excellent and ideologically ripe attempt to get rid of a pathetic Bush Democrat in a blue state.  There is a strong netroots presence, including several blogs focusing on both candidates and a coherent state blogosphere.  The campaign is well-run, with experienced staff running field, data, political, and media elements.  There are several professional political operative/bloggers on staff.  The candidate is a neophyte in politics but incredibly talented.  The local and national blogs are driving the narrative, with buttons that say 'Bush's favorite Democrat' showing up at the convention and online.

Ok, so that's the deal.  Not every race we invest in has been a good use of money.  Many haven't.  And that's normal.  It's very important to realize that no matter how good a targeter you are in politics you are inevitably going to pick a lot of losers.  Talk to the DCCC or DSCC in 1994, 1996, 2002, and 2004.  But with Lamont, we did a lot of homework.  I met with the campaign and the candidate.  I did due diligence on the campaign staff and the local Connecticut establishment.  I met with the DSCC, with former Lieberman staffers, and talked with constituent groups.  I read the Connecticut blogs.  And that was just me.  There were many many other discussions and phone calls that lots of other bloggers had.  This was not a race we went into blind.

As the blogs develop, local blogs are going to have better and better intelligence on how races and politicians are shaping up in their area.  That means that we'll keep getting better and more efficient in investing our resources.  But it also means pulling no punches, because if we don't talk about how and where we screw up, we won't fix the problems and we won't get more efficient and we won't move the progressive agenda forward.

And at the end of the day, the money and time we invest in politics should matter.  It has to.  We want save this country.  That means that we have to be honest about how we're doing, AND we have to keep giving and working.  It is not right to stop giving because of a loss, but it is right to not give when we don't do our homework.  This is a long-term game, and we're in it together.

What Lamont is proving is that we can have an effect.  A really really big one.

There's more...

In a hastily assembled press conference today along the Woonasquatucket River - a place where Matt Brown and Sheldon Whitehouse worked hand in hand to clean up the river with City Year years ago - Matt Brown announced that he is dropping out of the US Senate race and that he is endorsing Whitehouse.

When I began this campaign, it was with the goal of sending another Democrat from Rhode Island to serve in Washington. Today, I am ending my own campaign for United States Senate - but the goal remains the same. These days, it takes an enormous amount of money to run a Senate campaign, and I simply will not have the resources in the final stretch to run successfully.

I am pleased today to announce my full support for our Democratic candidate for Senate - Sheldon Whitehouse. Sheldon and I were friends and colleagues for 10 years, going back to our work together at City Year - we've been on opposite sides of a political campaign for just a year. I never lost my longstanding respect for his character or ability. Sheldon is a good man, who loves his family and his state, is deeply committed to public service and will do the right thing for Rhode Islanders. I will do everything I can to help elect him and I know that Sheldon Whitehouse will be a great Senator for Rhode Island.

Brown also said that he will work hard in his last year as Secretary of State to increase civic participation and to ensure that the 2006 elections run smoothely. He said that he will not be running for re-election as Secretary of State and that he looks forward to looking for other ways to serve - beyond government service. While not admitting that the recent campaign finance scandal had anything to do with his decision or the upcoming May 8th Democratic state convention for that matter, Brown did say that he just did not have the resources to get to the finish line. He said that the stakes in this race are high and that party unity is important because of the importance of winning a check on Bush's power in the US Senate.

Brown said that he made his decision very recently and phoned Whitehouse this afternoon to arrange the press conference. After making his statement, Brown and Whitehouse embraced and Whitehouse thanked Brown for his graciousness and his support. Both candidates were accompanied by their wives.

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chairman Sen. Chuck Schumer issued this statement today:

"Matt Brown is a class act. His decision today takes us one step closer in our quest to pick up seats in the Senate this year."

What does Brown's decision mean?

1. Democrats will be spared a bloody primary (like Weygand/Licht '00) and Whitehouse and the Democratic Party can save their resources for the November election. This is huge.
2. Independent voters may flood into the Republican primary now which would obviously help Lincoln Chafee's chances of beating Steve Laffey. Like I have written before, the 2nd highest voter turnout is in Warwick and there are no Democratic primaries in Warwick thus far, so the fizzling of the Senate Democratic Primary could mean big, big trouble for the Laffey campaign.
3. A Chafee triumph is not so great news for Whitehouse because he is polling much better against Laffey than against Chafee and many organizations - especially organized labor - may endorse Chafee if he wins the primary.

There will be undoubtedly some celebrating going on tonight in the Whitehouse campaign!

Last winter, The Nation recognized that the 2006 elections could be a moment of change not just within the United States, but within the Democratic Party. We had a unique opportunity to send a truly great class of freshman Senators into the hall of Congress. Their list of potentials was wonderful: Congressmen Bernie Sanders and Sherrod Brown graduating into the Senate, and challengers Patty Wetterling, Matt Brown, and Jon Tester rising as voices of progressive populism. Wetterling, Brown, and Tester all had tough primaries to overcome.

So tough, in fact, that only one remains: Jon Tester.

There's more...

The RI Future blog is reporting that Democratic US Senate candidate Matt Brown is holding a press conference today at 3:30pm announcing that he is dropping out of the Senate race. That leaves former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse and dark-horse, impeach Bush, Carl Sheeler in the Democratic Primary and Lincoln Chafee and Steve Laffey in the Republican Primary. This is good news for Democrats who witnessed a blood bath six years ago in the Democratic Primary between former Congressman Bob Weygand and Richard Licht and Chafee walked in over the carnage. The tables may be turned this year on the Republicans. Primary day is September 12th.

Democratic Senate candidate Matt Brown announced that he is staying in the race despite a crippling campaign finance scandal, only $35,000 in the bank to spend in the Sept. 12th primary and the firing of three key campaign staff and his media consultants. After Brown followed-up weeks of avoiding the media around the campaign finance scandal, he was also caught at home at 4:00pm (as the current Secretary of State, many wondered why he wasn't at work) and refused to answer his door. Top Rhode Island political columnist Charlie Bakst hit the nail on its head with his most recent column on Brown:

If a boxer is staggering, bleeding, clearly beaten, the referee mercifully stops the fight.

A ref should call an end to Secretary of State Matt Brown's running-on-empty bid for the Democratic nod for U.S. Senate.

He's done.

This is not an endorsement but an observation: The Democratic nominee for the seat held by Republican Linc Chafee will be former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse, who still faces token primary opposition from Carl Sheeler.

Years from now, experts will still marvel at his raising and burning through more than a million dollars, leaving a legacy of vaporized visibility, a trail of staff departures, no message and zero momentum.

Currently, the 3rd Democrat in the race - Carl Sheeler - has $210,000 to spend in the primary while favorite Sheldon Whitehouse has $1.37 million.

The news of Brown's implosion bodes well for incumbent Republican Senator Lincoln Chafee, who is engaged in a viscious primary battle with conservative Steve Laffey. If the lustre of the Democratic Primary fizzles, then a great majority of the 48% of Rhode Island's independent voters (who can vote in either primary) may vote in the Republican Primary for Chafee. If the independents vote in the Democratic Primary, odds are that Laffey wins because of his strong support in Rhode Island Republican circles.