Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP

The two most dispirited people after hearing the news of Martin Chavez dropping out of the Senate race have to be Republican Senate candidates Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce.  The two will almost undoubtedly be involved in a contentious and expensive Republican primary, while Udall coasts to easy victory in the Democratic contest.

That will allow Udall to raise more money and have near-universal support among Democrats in the state.  Udall would have almost undoubtedly received a majority of the support of Democrats in the primary.  But the damage Chavez could have done while in the race attacking Udall while attempting to gain traction could have proved fatal to Udall's chances in the general election.

There's more...

Today, Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez dropped his bid to challenge Tom Udall for the Democratic nomination for Senate from New Mexico. New Mexico FBIHOP has Chavez's statement, from a press release:

"Traveling my home state over the past several weeks, I have been honored to spend time with my fellow New Mexicans talking about the issues and challenges facing our state and nation.  While I deeply appreciate all the support I have received, it has become very clear to me that Democrats should not be divided in the upcoming election.  A hotly contested primary, as this one certainly would be, would likely weaken the Democratic nominee and place the general election in jeopardy." [...]

"Tom Udall has my full support.  I will work to help him and all Democrats get elected throughout our great State of New Mexico and our Nation.  As Mayor, I have many new, exciting programs that I want to bring to fruition.  I want to spend my remaining time in the Mayor's office being the very best mayor possible for all of the citizens of my home town."

A classy statement from a guy who'd previously promised to make Udall's job winning the nomination hell. The writing was on the wall, Chavez finally decided to read it. One step closer to more and better Udalls in the senate.

Update [2007-12-7 21:20:34 by Todd Beeton]:FBIHOP has more on the possible fall-out of Chavez's decision in the diaries.

Also, this is a great opportunity to go throw some money Udall's way over at the Netroots For Udall ActBlue Page.

There's more...

Bumped from the diaries -- Jonathan... Let's see that 100 donor goal hit by the end of the week

Congressman Tom Udall has seen contributions from 52 donors totaling over $515 since the Draft movement began. In contrast, eight days after announcing his bid for the Senate, Mayor Martin Chavez has raised $255 on ActBlue from just two donors (10/16/07).

This week, we're trying to reach 100 small donors to tell Congressman Udall that New Mexicans want him to run for Senate.

The Draft has also been highlighted by the netroots, including the authoritative Heath Haussamen in New Mexico and Howie Klein at Down With Tyranny.

New Mexicans are sending their message loud and clear. Udall, who declared he would not run for the seat, is seeing a groundswell of support from New Mexicans urging him into the race. A true public servant, Congressman Udall is undoubtedly watching closely.

Help to send the message even louder as we try to reach 100 donors this week!

Please pass this along to your friends, families, and colleagues both in New Mexico and across the country. The Democratic candidate in New Mexico is not only important to New Mexicans themselves, but to everyone across the country as we try to increase our majority in the coming year. Congressman Udall is the perfect candidate to turn New Mexico's Senate delegation blue. Help us to convince him!

Update [2007-10-16 14:56:33 by Jonathan Singer]:The Albuquerque Journal's Michael Coleman is the first to report this afternoon that Congressman Steve Pearce will be joining Congresswoman Heather Wilson in the race for the Republican Senate nomination, further underscoring the need for a strong Democrat to emerge in this race. Given that Udall leads either Pearce or Wilson by 18 points, it might not be such a bad idea for Udall to jump in...

Update (Alex): New Mexico may have just become the biggest battleground state in the country. This is one more reason to make sure that a Democrat like Tom Udall, who will run well across the state, will fun for the United States Senate from New Mexico. Udall can help to deliver down-ballot races by driving up turnout for all 3 congressional seats that would be open and for State House and Senate seats where a turnout edge can make all the difference.

There's more...

Bumped from the diaries -- Jonathan... Interesting to get this prospective from New Mexican Alex Flores. What he brings up is at least worth thinking about.

The word in New Mexico circles is that despite his announcement, Congressman Udall is still being urged to run for the Senate. If  "Udall for Senate" gives you the same kind butterflies in your stomach as it gives me, please help urge him to run! Send Tom Udall the message that we want him as our next Senator by sending a small, $5 contribution to his campaign.

It seems like whoever you talk to in Washington and most importantly, in New Mexico, people agree that Tom Udall is our hero candidate. Obviously he needs to step up and run.

A move to run after announcing otherwise is not without precedent and you don't hear anyone complaining about the last guy who did it. In August of 2005, now Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown announced that he would not run against former-Senator Mike DeWine in Ohio. For the next two months, the grassroots urged him to reconsider his decision for the people of Ohio and for people across the nation. He eventually reversed his decision and went on to win the seat for Democrats, helping to give us control of the US Senate.

We need to send Congressman Udall that same message (here's another chance to donate that $5!). The people of New Mexico want him to run and people in Washington and across the United States hope that he'll help us to increase our majority in the Senate by turning Senator Domenici's seat blue!

Tom Udall is the best choice for New Mexico AND for the country as we work towards building the Democratic majority in the Senate. I already wrote a bit about his background, including a bit about his family and his cash on hand that he could use for his Senate campaign committee. But there are other, better reasons for Tom Udall to be the next Senator from New Mexico.

For one, he's a good progressive. He's pro-choice, an environmentalist, a defender of civil liberties and civil rights, and one of the great supporters for veterans in the Democratic Party today. In fact, during his time as a minority member in the Congress, he took the junior seat on the Veteran's Committee in addition to his regular committee portfolio.

In the first polling out about the race in New Mexico, Tom Udall beats both Republicans by 18 points! Governor Richardson is the only other New Mexican who polls as high. Representative Udall could afford to leave his safe seat in the north with these kinds of numbers, run hard for the Senate, and win. He could leave his House seat knowing that another Democrat (and there are many) could easily keep it in Dem control.

In terms of numbers, this just makes sense. Congresswoman Heather Wilson (R) and Congressman Steve Pearce (R) are the two leading contenders to replace Senator Domenici on the Republican side (Pearce has formed an exploratory committee and will announce his intentions in the next two weeks, while Wilson declared less than 24 hours after Domenici's announcement and after weeks of traveling statewide). The numbers tell us that both beat current Dem candidates Chavez and Wiviott by small-to-wide margins. The following summary of the numbers comes from the Democracy For New Mexico blog.

Starting with Republican candidate Steven Pearce, Congressman from New Mexico's 2nd District:
*    Pearce loses to Congressman Tom Udall by 18 points
*    loses to Governor Bill Richardson by 24 points
*    defeats Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez by 21 points
*    defeats former Attorney General Patricia Madrid by 16 points
*    and defeats businessman Don Wiviott by 35 points.
Now to Republican candidate Heather Wilson, Congresswoman from New Mexico's 1st Congressional District:
*    Wilson loses to Udall by 18 points (same as Pearce),
*    loses to Richardson by 27 points (Wilson runs 3 points weaker than Pearce),
*    defeats Chavez by 4 points (Wilson runs 17 points weaker than Pearce),
*    effectively ties Patricia Madrid (Wilson runs 15 points weaker than Pearce)
*    and defeats Wiviott by 17 points (Wilson runs 18 points weaker than Pearce).

Someone needs to put these numbers on the Congressman's desk and tell him that it's time to run.

We know that Udall's numbers aren't fluff, either. He's run statewide before and won as Attorney General, twice! Since then, Udall has remained a proud defender of the Constitution and our rights. He was one of the original 66 Members of Congress to stand up with courage against the PATRIOT Act that was first railroaded through the House, forcing most Representatives to vote on a bill they had never read.

This is the kind of leadership and courage we should demand from our leaders and a primary reason why New Mexicans are asking Tom Udall to run for Senate.

Congressman Udall's voting record is solidly progressive. Help in the movement to Draft Tom Udall for Senate today by sending him $5 and the message that he's our best hope!

There's more...

Our Draft Tom Udall for New Mexico Senate effort was unfortunately futile, today brought news that another Democrat was joining Don Wiviott in the race for the Democratic Senate nomination in the state, Albuquerque mayor Martin Chavez. Chavez, however, isn't necessarily the strongest candidate in the world despite his higher name recognition, as evidenced by the poor showing of the city council candidates he backed in last week's elections and his somewhat underwhelming numbers in the latest polling (available from SurveyUSA via Joe Monahan).

The first public polling since the political earthquake set off by the retirement announcement of NM GOP US Senator Pete Domenici shows that GOP southern NM Congressman Steve Pearce and Democratic Governor Bill Richardson would be the strongest US Senate candidates for their respective parties. On the other hand, the SurveyUSA poll conducted over the weekend using automatic phone calls to New Mexico households, shows GOP ABQ Congresswoman Heather Wilson defeating Chavez, but losing by a landslide if Big Bill were the Dem nominee.

In a mock match-up, ABQ Mayor Chavez, who will enter the Dem Senate race tomorrow, is defeated by Rep. Wilson 48% to 44%. Wilson, the polls says, would lose the Senate seat 62% to 35% if Big Bill were her Dem opponent. Steve Pearce beats Chavez 56% to 35%, outperforming fellow Republican Wilson. Richardson beats Pearce 60% to 36% in the poll.

Rep. Tom Udall who is not seeking the Domenici senate seat would defeat Wilson 56% to 38%, according to the poll of 514 registered voters.

Former Attorney General Patricia Madrid would run in a near tie with Wilson, said the survey, with Wilson getting 46% and Madrid 45%.

I'm with Markos on this one: It would be nice to see Udall -- or possibly even Governor Bill Richardson -- reconsider his decision not to run. Interestingly, at least as far as MSNBC's First Read is concerned, Richardson issued "a non-denial denial" about running for Senate, which is possible given that, as Jennifer Duffy notes for The Cook Political Report (sub. req.), "The filing deadline is February 12, which would allow Richardson to play through the early presidential primaries and caucuses." What's more, Duffy writes that "it wouldn't be hard for him to pivot to the Senate race and become an instant frontrunner for the nomination and the general election." Anyway, we'll post more on this poll when it goes online.

Update [2007-10-8 21:27:36 by Jonathan Singer]: Let me be clear that I don't think Richardson should drop out of the presidential race now. If he is able to get the nomination, great. But if he isn't picking up delegates by the end of January, I hope he at least thinks about running for Senate as an alternative. That is, of course, unless Udall changes his mind and decides to run (Sherrod Brown reconsidered his decision to run for Senate last cycle and Ohioans didn't seem to mind much).

Update [2007-10-8 23:25:41 by Jonathan Singer]: The full numbers look like this (below the fold):

There's more...