In the past 3 months, Democrats have increased their House majority as they picked up a remarkable 3 seats in a series of special elections organized in Illinois's 14th district, Louisiana's 6th district, Mississippi's 1st district. What is particularly remarkable is that all three of these districts leaned heavily Republican; in 2004, George Bush had won them respectively with 55%, 59% and 62%. Each defeat increased the chaos of the Republican caucus as the NRCC started to settle in panic mode. After the loss of MS-01 on May 13th, Tom Cole, the chairman of the NRCC, issued a remarkable statement calling on Republican incumbents to brace for the worse and find individual ways to deal with the onslaught.

And Republicans have reason to fear a second November debacle. First, Republicans are now three more seats away from the majority and it is hard to find a GOP operative willing to suggest their party has any hope of reducing that margin in November. Second, the party continues to be at a significant financial disadvantage while the DCCC has a huge pile of cash that it will use in dozens of districts in the coming months, testing any Republican seat that shows any sign of being vulnerable. While the GOP was able to respond in the special elections, they will not have the money to do the same in the fall and will be forced to make some painful choices.

These rankings are posted on Campaign Diaries.

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Last week brought news that Republican Congressman Kenny Hulshof, who represents Missouri's ninth district, would be retiring from the House in order to run for Governor in the state. Now it looks like a big name Democrat is taking a look at the race.

Former state House Speaker Steve Gaw said Friday he is running for Congress, seeking the seat left open during the political jockeying that followed Gov. Matt Blunt's decision not to seek re-election.

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Gaw, 50, was a member of the Missouri House from 1993 to 2001, serving as speaker from 1996 until he left office. He lost a 2000 bid for secretary of state to Blunt, but soon thereafter was appointed to the Missouri Public Service Commission, which regulates investor-owned utilities. His term there expired last year.

State Rep. Judy Baker had previously filed for the district, but it looks like her campaign website is still touting her state legislative campaign (she has a congressional campaign site here), though it's not clear that she's in this race for the long haul (or would be in the case of a Gaw candidacy).

I don't know too much about Gaw, but he would seem to have the right type of profile for an open race of this nature. While MO-09 has a Cook PVI of R+7 (meaning that it tends to lean about 7 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections, Missouri has shown a willingness to elect Democrats in the past (think Claire McCaskill), and currently the Democrats hold six of the 13 districts that have a R+7 PVI.

Make no mistake, this isn't going to be the Democrats' best pick up opportunity around the country in 2008. In fact, it might not even be their best chance to pick up a House seat in Missouri (MO-06, where former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes is challenging GOP incumbent Sam Graves, might be a better shot at this point). That said, MO-09 is going to be yet another district in which the Republicans are going to have to be on the defensive this cycle. And if there is another Democratic wave this fall, which I think is a real possibility, this district may just swing from red to blue.

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Earlier I noted that tonight's State of the Union would not only be the last for George W. Bush but that it would also be the last for a whole lot of congressional Republicans, both those who will be defeated in November and those who are retiring. Well, you might be able to add one more name to that second list, according to CQPolitics.com.

Missouri Republican Rep. Kenny Hulshof reportedly has decided to run for governor of his home state this year, and will forgo a campaign for a seventh House term in the 9th District.

Hulshof will announce his plans Tuesday, according to the Kansas City Star, which cited Republican sources. He would be seeking to succeed retiring one-term Republican Matt Blunt -- the son of House Minority Whip Roy Blunt of Missouri's 7th District -- who was viewed as a rising star when elected governor in 2004 at age 33 but struggled with mediocre approval ratings ever since.

According to the Cook Political Report (.pdf), this would mark the 26th open seat that the Republicans have to defend this cycle (counting both retirements and resignations) -- or about 13 percent of the seats the party won on November 7, 2006. With every extra retirement, the Republicans' task of limiting their losses (let alone picking up seats, let alone retaking the House) becomes that much more difficult.

It's true that Missouri's ninth district, which Hulshof represents, does lean about 7 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections. But this doesn't mean that the Democrats wouldn't have a realistic shot at winning this seat. Going through the 13 districts across the country that have that same partisan lean, the Democrats already control nearly half (six). In 2004, the Democrats picked up a similar district in the neighboring state of Kentucky with Ben Chandler's victory in a special election, and in 2006, alone, Democrats had three victors in districts with a lean of R+7: Heath Shuler in North Carolina, Baron Hill in Indiana Nancy Boyda in the neighboring state of Kansas. Perhaps more importantly, it looks like the Democrats may already have a strong candidate in the race in state Rep. Judy Baker.

Hulshof has yet to officially announce that he's not running for another term, so we need not yet get too far ahead of ourselves (though here's the Kansas City Star article for those interested). But if he does indeed retire from the House, as CQ suggests, there's likely to be a real race to replace him.

Just to add...Swing State Project sees another potential GOP retirement in the works.

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Yep here we go again. With the dust not yet settled on the last challenge in FL-13 (Good luck Christine) we take a look forward to 2008.

Wander below the fold for the good oil.

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