CNN/Time: Obama Strong in Upper Midwest
by Jonathan Singer, Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 02:30:53 PM EDT
The McCain campaign has made a serious play at bringing Minnesota into the Republican fold this year and making sure that Iowa goes red, as it did for George W. Bush in 2004. But the latest polling seems to indicate that these efforts are falling on deaf ears.
In a CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. survey out Wednesday afternoon, 55 percent of Iowa registered voters who were questioned said that Obama, D-Illinois, is their choice for president, with 40 percent backing McCain, R-Arizona. That's more than double the lead Obama had in a University of Iowa poll taken early last month."Obama is winning in all regions of the state -- even in the western counties where George W. Bush beat John Kerry by 17 points," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Obama is winning rural voters in Iowa -- not something you see in many other states."
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It appears to be a similar story in Minnesota, where the Republicans are holding their national convention this week.
The poll indicates that Obama has a 12-point lead over McCain, 53 percent to 41 percent.
Without these latest surveys in the mix, Barack Obama's lead in Iowa and Minnesota were 6.5 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively, according to Pollster.com. With competitive congressional races in both states, as well as an important Senate contest in Minnesota, the fact that Obama is currently running so far ahead of John Kerry in these two states is important.
While Minnesota and Iowa do not appear to be tightening up, the numbers out of Ohio are a bit swingier.
The poll suggests he has a two-point lead over McCain, 47 percent to 45 percent, which is a virtual tie when taking into account the survey's 3.5-percentage-point sampling error.
Overall, Obama seems to be faring quite well in the wake of the Democratic National Convention and the initial announcement of Sarah Palin as the GOP Vice Presidential nominee. Of course it will be worth waiting at least another week, perhaps even two, before jumping to too hard of conclusions about the state of the race, as tens of millions will presumably tune in tonight and tomorrow night to see Palin and John McCain deliver their speeches. That all said, there can be few complaints about the initial movement since the DNC and where the race now sits.






