This week saw the release of August fundraising numbers, with the DSCC continuing to outpace the NRSC, $2.58 million to $2.36 million.  The NRSC continuing to get beat in fundraising month after month may be why they seem willing to exploit any fundraising opportunity, however crass and tasteless it may be.

Speaking of fundraising, Senate 2008 Guru started a new ActBlue page: the Expand the Map! ActBlue page, focusing on Senate races in states that don't typically have competitive Senate races, but could see strong competition with enough resources.  The page's inaugural campaigns are Idaho's Larry LaRocco and Oklahoma's Andrew Rice.  The first-day goal on Friday of ten contributions for both candidates was met, and we're closing in on our weekend goal of twenty contributions apiece.  With today being the last day of the third fundraising quarter of 2007, please contribute if you can!  These relatively early dollars coming in help demonstrate these campaigns' viability and competitivity.  So if you can chip in $100, that's great.  If you can chip in $5, that's great!  But, please do chip in if you can!

Also released this week were Survey USA's September poll numbers.  While Mitch McConnell's (51-40), Norm Coleman's (46-45), and Gordon Smith's (48-42) poll numbers all remained in the danger zone, the lowlight of the month was Pete Domenici's poll numbers plummetting to an atrocious 41-54.  You read that right: 41-54.  It looked like Domenici's descent in the polls as a result of his role in the Attorney Purge scandal had levelled off in the low 50's.  We'll see next month if the low 40's is an aberration or Domenici's new norm.

With Senate Republicans still stuck in the mud, it's no wonder that vulnerable political targets like Norm Coleman and John Sununu "routinely turn down" cable news interview requests.  I guess these vulnerable Republicans are too cowardly to stand up and defend their votes in favor of prolonging Bush's Iraq War and their myriad other votes putting them out-of-step with their constituents.  And here are many other stories affecting the Senate races this week:

Alaska: Hays Research conducted a poll finding that only 40% of Alaskans view Ted Stevens positively while 38% view Stevens negatively.  Further, only 43% of Alaskans said that they were likely to vote to re-elect Stevens while 45% said that they were unlikely to vote to re-elect him.  Very bad news for Stevens, especially in light of the fact that GOP Gov. Sarah Palin, perhaps the most popular elected official in the state, is leaning on Stevens to be more forthcoming with voters about his various scandals and investigations.  And that is all the more perilous for Stevens as the far-right conservative Club for Growth is seeking a primary challenger for the pork-loving Stevens.

Nebraska: Former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub backed out of the crowded Republican primary about two weeks after entering the scrum.  Nevertheless, incompetent NRSC Chair John Ensign seems to have insured a nasty primary between former Gov. and chronic quitter Mike Johanns and state Attorney General Jon Bruning when it became public that Ensign was urging local GOP leaders to help push out other opponents like Bruning in favor of Johanns.  Heckuva job, Ensign.  And it's not like Bruning hasn't already displayed a willingness to take the fight right to Johanns.  Meanwhile, as we continue to await former Senator Bob Kerrey's decision, he has laid out his current position on Iraq: "downsize the military commitment" but do not cut off funds.

Georgia: Lieutenant General David Poythress, Georgia's retiring adjutant general and a former Georgia Secretary of State and Labor Commissioner, is being eyed as a possible Senate challenger to Spineless Saxby Chambliss in 2008.  If it can't be Max Cleland, it would be great to have another military man lay out for Saxby what a coward Chambliss really is.  Also, the Athens Banner-Herald's political blogger called Chambliss out for his hypocrisy on voting against more rest time for soldiers when Chambliss himself took four deferments to get out of service in Vietnam.

Idaho: Larry Craig had his day in court this past week, but the judge says a ruling will not come until the end of this coming week at the earliest.  As such, Craig is not resigning (for the time being) and will continue his Senate work as scheduled.  GOP Gov. Butch Otter has a short list of possible replacement appointments ready to go, but he may not get the chance to use it as observers see Craig leaving rhetorical wiggle room to possibly serve out the remainder of his term regardless of the decision in his court case or to even actually consider running for re-election in 2008.  I think Craig should stick it out in order to send a message to a Senate Republican caucus that would throw him under a bus while welcoming back prostitute-lovin' David Vitter with thunderous applause.

Maine: Following a manufactured scandal in Susan Collins' 1996 Senate run in which she worked with a reporter to portray her opponent's very typical opposition research effort as a seedy witch hunt, and another manufactured scandal earlier this year in which Susan Collins wildly overreacted to the Maine Democratic Party having a staffer record her public appearances (ooh, the horror!), the Collins camp is now working to manufacture yet another dishonest political attack, trying to portray Congressman Tom Allen's impressive 98% voting record as something less than outstanding.  Collins would much rather focus on the rate of votes rather than the substance of votes, which puts her far to the right of mainstream Maine.  Meanwhile, the Rockland Courier-Gazette slammed Collins for her continued support for Bush's endless Iraq War, noting that "Collins has strayed so far into the camp of President George W. Bush that she can't free herself," and calling Collins' votes "destructive to the country and the state."

Texas: Daily Kos commissioned a poll by Research 2000 finding that John Cornyn held a 51-35 advantage over State Representative and Lieutenant Colonel Rick Noriega. The 51-35 figure is not too dissimilar from the 53-30 figure Rasmussen Reports released almost two weeks ago, which is pretty good considering most Texans probably have never heard of Rick Noriega yet. The Research 2000 poll also found that 40% of voters would re-elect Cornyn, 15% would consider another candidate, and 35% would vote to replace Cornyn. Those numbers are very promising.

Kentucky: Another week, another opportunity for the Kentucky media to call Mitch McConnell out for "utter hypocrisy" and "selective outrage." And now the far-right conservative Club for Growth is sniffing around the Bluegrass State for a primary challenger for McConnell.

North Carolina: According to an Elon University poll, voters said that the top four issues that would "influence their vote for U.S. Senator" were The Iraq War (78%), Economy (76%), Health Care Costs (75%), and Immigration (73%).  And what were the voters' satisfaction levels with Elizabeth Dole on those four issues?  Very poor: 32% for The Iraq War, 39% for Economy, 32% for Health Care Costs, and 28% for Immigration.  Elizabeth Dole will have a very hard time defending her record if less than 40% of voters are satisfied with her on issues that about 75% of voters will be basing their vote on.

Minnesota: Senate candidate Al Franken offered a powerful op-ed in the Star Tribune this week discussing how ridiculous it is for the Senate to actually debate over the MoveOn.org ad, with Norm Coleman continuing to play politics over the issue, while our soldiers continue to fight and die in Iraq.

Tennessee: Businessman and gubernatorial son Mike McWherter took another step toward a challenge to Lamar Alexander as McWherter formed a Senate exploratory committee.  Also, it came out that www.MikeMcWherter.com was reserved back in May, just in case.

Oregon: The Oregon Democratic Party this week examined Gordon Smith's lousy records on making education affordable, global warming and Big Oil, and, in light of his company's third fine for illegally dumping wastewater into a nearby creek, environmental protection, including a lifetime 26% rating from the League of Conservation Voters.

New Jersey: Stu Rothenberg concluded that Republicans have "no reason for even a shred of optimism" in a race against Senator Frank Lautenberg.

New Hampshire: Sprintin' John Sununu was the only New England Senator of either Party to oppose the hate crimes amendment (that even New Hampshire Republican colleague Judd Gregg supported), yet again demonstrating how out of touch Sununu is with Granite State voters.

Michigan: 2002 GOP MI-Sen nominee Rocky Raczkowski is considering giving it another go.  Also, GOP state rep. Jack Hoogendyk is considering a challenge to Senator Carl Levin.  The political mood in 2002 favored Republicans even more than the 2008 political mood is shaping up to favor Democrats.  Nevertheless, Levin crushed Raczkowski 61-38 in '02.

For daily news and updates on the U.S. Senate races around the country in 2008, check out Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.

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No, it's not Sunday.  And this isn't the Senate 2008 Guru's Week in the Senate Races.  It's been over nine months since Election Day 2006; and it's less than fifteen months until Election Day 2008.  In other words, the 2008 election cycle is more than one-third over already.  With all of the discussion about vulnerable Republican-held Senate seats taking place, I thought it might be useful to take a look at how the races are shaping up for the twelve Democratic-held Senate seats in 2008.  Soak it in:

State	Incumbent	GOP's Ostensible 1st Choice	1st Choice Running?	Current GOP Opponent(s)	Possible GOP Opponent(s)	Announced Not Running or Expressed No Interest
AR	Mark Pryor	Former Gov. Mike Huckabe	No	None	?	Huckabee
DE	Joe Biden	Rep. Mike Castle	No	None	?	Castle
IL	Richard Durbin	Your guess is as good as mine.	No	Steve Sauerberg	Who knows? A return from Alan Keyes?	Steve Greenberg
IA	Tom Harkin	Rep. Tom Latham	Not Yet (Rumored Possibility)	Steve Rathje, Troy Cook, Bob McDowell	Latham, Rep. Steve King	-
LA	Mary Landrieu	Rep. Bobby Jindal	No	None*	Sec. of State Jay Dardenne, Treasurer John N. Kennedy, '02 Sen. candidate Suzanne Haik Terrell '96 Sen. candidate Woody Jenkins	Rep. Richard Baker, Rep. Jim McCrery, Rep. Charles Boustany; Jindal running for Governor
MA	John Kerry	Your guess is as good as mine.	No	Jeffrey Beattie	State Senator Scott Brown	Former Govs. Mitt Romney, Bill Weld, and Paul Cellucci, Former Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey, Former Bush Chief of Staff Andy Card, Businessman Charles Baker, Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling
MI	Carl Levin	Rep. Candice Miller	No	None	Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land, 2002 Candidate Rocky Raczkowski	Miller, Rep. Mike Rogers
MT	Max Baucus	Rep. Denny Rehberg	No	State Rep. Mike Lange	?	Rehberg
NJ	Frank Lautenberg	Former Gov. Christie Whitman, U.S. Attorney Chris Christie	No, No	Businesswoman Anne Evans Estabrook	State Assemblyman Joe Pennacchio, State Assemblyman Jon Bramnick	Whitman, Christie, Tom Kean Sr. & Jr., Assemblyman Mike Doherty
RI	Jack Reed	Former Sen. Lincoln Chafee	No	None	Jon Scott	Chafee, '06 Sen. candidate Steve Laffey, Gov. Don Carcieri
SD	Tim Johnson*	Gov. Mike Rounds	No	State Rep. Joel Dykstra, Businessman Sam Kephart	?	Rounds
WV	Jay Rockefeller	Rep. Shelley Moore Capito	No	None	Secretary of State Betty Ireland, Businessman John Raese	Capito

So what do we see here?

First and foremost, we see that (unless Tom Latham challenges Tom Harkin or Bobby Jindal unexpectedly loses the LA-Gov race and opts for a Senate bid) Republicans don't have a single top choice challenging a Democratic incumbent.  Keep in mind, this is not a comparison to Democrats, who have had ups and downs with recruiting (though, with 22 Republican-held seats up compared with only 12 Democratic seats up, that is to be expected).  Simply put, I don't know how much time NRSC Chair John Ensign spends recruiting, but if it's more than zero, it may be wasted time.  Certainly, there is still plenty of time for candidates to enter a Senate race, as Senators Claire McCaskill, Sherrod Brown, and Jim Webb will tell you (all officially entered their races after August 2005), but, after this point in the 2006, only one single Republican entered a Senate race: Michigan loser Mike Bouchard.  If 2006 is at all indicative, the NRSC should be just about done recruiting by now, not just starting.

You'll also note two asterisks, in Louisiana and South Dakota.  In Louisiana, statewide elections occur later this year.  While several Republican Congressmen have announced that they will be opting against a 2008 Senate challenge to Mary Landrieu, it is not unreasonable that other potential candidates would wait until after the 2007 state election before making any decisions, particularly in the case of statewide officeholders Secretary of State Jay Dardenne and currently-Democratic Treasurer John N. Kennedy.  In South Dakota, Senator Tim Johnson is, of course, still recuperating from illness.  If he feels able to run for re-election, it is reasonable to assume that he will, and that Gov. Mike Rounds is unlikely to challenge him.  However, if Johnson opts against a re-election bid, that changes the entire dynamic, which could lead to a top-tier battle between Gov. Rounds and possibly Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth.

We also see a lot of previously unheard-of names.  Jeffrey Beattie in Massachusetts and Jon Scott in Rhode Island are both Congressional race losers, I suppose looking for a promotion to losing Senate races.  The announced challengers in Illinois and Iowa are all unknown political entities, charitably considered third-tier opponents.  As it currently stands, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota feature a smattering of second- and third-tier opposition.  Assuming both that Joe Biden drops his Presidential bid and runs for re-election and that Iowa's Republican Congressional delegation all opt to take a pass on a 2008 Senate bid, it is not unreasonable to expect (barring out-of-the blue surprises) that incumbent Democratic Senators will face no more than token opposition in Arkansas, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Rhode Island, and West Virginia.  (At the same time, it wouldn't be wildly shocking if: Tom Latham did enter the race in Iowa; Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land did enter the race in Michigan; Joe Biden did retire from the Senate; and the AR-GOP did find somebody to offer Mark Pryor at least minimal opposition.)

Further, assuming that Senator Tim Johnson is up for a re-election campaign, it is not unreasonable to expect that incumbent Democratic Senators will face no more than second-tier opposition (and thus be strong favorites) in Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota.  Now, I recognize that I'm suggesting that, given a few reasonable caveats, eleven of twelve Democratic Senate seats are fairly to very safe (though it is also, in part, due to the hurting Democrats took in the Senate in 2002, losing close races in Colorado, Georgia, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee, which in turn thinned out Democratic vulnerabilities and created pick-up opportunities for 2008).  That is pretty close to a "best case scenario." But it is also a fairly reasonable scenario.  The catch is that Republicans, wanting to avoid a repeat of 2006 when they failed to turn a single Democratic-held Senate seat (or House seat or Governor's office) Republican, may pour relatively large sums of money into Louisiana once they have a candidate.  With the DSCC trouncing the NRSC in fundraising, Democrats can counteract that, but it could be very expensive.

What do you think?

For daily news and updates on the U.S. Senate races around the country in 2008, check out Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.

There's more...

From Republican Senator David Vitter's scandal to second quarter fundraising numbers to Iraq to news from Senate races around the country, a lot happened this week.

First and foremost, the Vitter scandal is not simply a caricature of a seedy politician screwing around.  It's another reminder of the hypocrisy endemic to the Republican Party at the national level.  For those who don't know, Republican Senator David Vitter confessed to having been a client of the infamous DC Madam after his phone number was found in her found records.  He claimed to have received the forgiveness of his wife and his God (I don't know how he confirmed that one).  As a side note, his wife did once intimate that if her husband ever cheated on her, she'd more likely castrate than forgive.  Just when we thought that was all there was to the story, it turns out that he also frequented a New Orleans brothel.

The hypocrisy that exists in this sordid tale exists on many levels.  First is the standard that Vitter himself set.  Vitter called for President Bill Clinton's resignation when Clinton's marital infidelities came to light.  If Vitter held himself to his own standard, he'd have already resigned.  Vitter discusses the "moral fitness to govern" readily when it is someone else being judged.  Heck, forget about moral fitness to govern; how about the presence to govern?  Vitter apparently received phone calls from the DC Madam during roll call votes while he was a House member.  And, amid the current scandal, he opted to go into hiding rather than actually do his job, leading him to miss seven roll call votes between Wednesday and Friday on such minor issues as Iraq, Iran, and al Qaeda.  He was even more than happy to lie to constituents back in 2002 when asked explicitly about one particular prostitute by name.

The second level on which the hypocrisy exists is the level of "family values." Vitter ran on a platform of "family values," making his wife and kids the stars of his campaign ads, inserting them into the public sphere and inserting his personal values and private life into public scrutiny.  He also explained to us immoral heathens that "marriage is truly the most fundamental social institution in human history" while legislating how others should live their lives and regard the institution of marriage.  All the while, he had debased his own marriage.  To say that Vitter is falling short of his own standard is an understatement.

The third level on which the hypocrisy exists is the level of the rule of law.  Soliciting a prostitute is a crime in Washington, D.C. and Louisiana.  As much as some Republicans might scoff at the idea, the rule of law still applies to them.  Vitter committed a crime, and simply receiving the forgiveness of one's wife does not qualify as legal absolution.  Any legal researchers want to dig up what the statute of limitations is in both Washington, D.C. and Louisiana on soliciting?

Much more below the fold.

There's more...

[Cross-posted at my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

A little over two months ago, I took a look at the state of NRSC recruiting in the one open seat (Colorado) and the twelve states with Democratic incumbents, concluding, up to that point in time, that the NRSC was 0-for-13 in recruiting so far.  Keep in mind that we're approaching the dog days of summer, not a heavy recruitment period.  (Note that during June-August of 2005, only five Senate candidates announced, all five of whom were Republican losers.)  So where does the state of NRSC recruitment stand, and what has changed in the last two months?

(Much more below the fold.)

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I doubt that many, if any Republicans would consider the Nevada Senate race to be competitive. This is not entirely unjustified. Even after the latest Rasmussen poll on the campaign is added in, Pollster.com's five poll moving average of the race will be:

Ensign (R): 51%
Carter (D): 40%

11% is a big gap to overcome on an incumbent in a short period of time, especially when the candidate trailing in the polls also faces a significant monetary gap. However, I am sure that a lot of Republicans will still crow about their chances for pickups in Washington, Michigan, and Minnesota because, you know, Mark Kennedy is such a good candidate). Let's compare the five poll moving averages in those races to the five-poll average in Nevada, shall we?

Minnesota
Klobuchar (Dfl): 52%
Kennedy (R): 37%

(Did you know that Mark Kennedy is a great candidate?) This isn't one poll out of Minnesota--this is an average of the last five polls. I'd stick a fork in this one, except that everyone knows that the race is a lot closer than this, and that all five of those polls are biased. This campaign has to be close, because Mark Kennedy is such a great candidate. We all know these things because that is what we have been told repeatedly for the last year. Mark Kennedy is a great candidate who massively under-performed Bush in both 2000 (by 13%) and 2004 (by 6%). It is too bad for a great candidate like Kennedy that not only is Nevada a far closer race than Minnesota, but Nevada is also clearly trending closer while the biased polls in Minnesota show the already huge gap widening. This is just not an end befitting such a great candidate like Kennedy.

Washington
Cantwell (D): 52%
McGavick (R): 39%

We were "treated" today to both Rasmussen and Political Wire telling us how this race was getting close. Of course, this is the average polling in the campaign even after the new Rasmussen poll was factored in. This is also one of the races that Strategic Vision likes to poll a lot. Amazing, Strategic Vision always shows the race closer than any other polling firm. Strategic Vision seems to have a habit of almost only polling Democratic held Senate seats and consistently showing them to be more favorable to Republicans than any other polling firm does. Kind of makes you wonder if partisan Republican Strategic Vision only exists in order to create buzz around the idea of Republican pickups using juiced numbers. In reality, the numbers also show Nevada to be closer than this campaign as well.

Michigan
Stabenow (D): 52%
Bouchard (R): 41%

This is another one of Strategic Vision's favorite races to poll. In fact, they have polled this race ten times in the last ten months. However, even with a Strategic Vision poll in the five-poll average, there is exactly the same margin, 11%, separating Stabenow and Bouchard as there is separating Ensign and Carter. Only here, there are fewer undecideds, and a much larger cash on hand gap (Nevada cash, Michigan cash). Nevada is closer than this race too.

What is Nevada not closer than? Well, New Jersey, obviously, which is yet another one of Strategic Vision's favorite states to poll, as they have conducted nine New Jersey polls in the last seven months alone). The only other one is Maryland:

Maryland
Cardin (D): 48%
Steele (R): 42%

So, Maryland is closer than Nevada, thanks almost entirely to the seemingly outlying Survey USA poll that showed Steele ahead 48%-47%. Maryland is actually most similar to another Democratic target tht rarely gets any press:

Arizona
Kyl (R): 48%
Pederson (D): 41%

Of course, we hear a lot more about Steele's great chances in Maryland than we hear about Pederson's chances in Arizona, which are usually scoffed at by the national punditry. It is just like how we hear a lot more about the Senate races in Minnesota, Washington, and Michigan than we hear about the Senate race in Nevada, even though Nevada is actually a closer race than Minnesota, Washington or Michigan. Admittedly, that could be because Mark Kennedy is such a great candidate, and the press can't help but talk about how close that race is.

New Jersey is the only serious Republican threat right now. Maryland is an outside threat, just like Arizona is an outside threat for us. By way of contrast, we have now mounted serious challenges in Montana, Missouri, Tennessee, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. That gives us a net advantage of plus six in serious Senate challenges, exactly the number we need to retake the Senate. It still isn't very likely, but we are slowly creeping closer to having a real chance. When I update the Senate forecast later in the day, the new rankings will reflect that reality.