Ah, American politics, did you know I got away for a week to the UK? I was over there for the Liberal Democrats international conference. It brought out campaign operatives from sister parties of the LD's from mostly Africa and eastern Europe.

I gave a presentation on the blogosphere, social media, and the netroots. The basis of it was from a presentation I'd done for NPI a year ago, but things have been radically altered even since that time. For the most part, only the UK and Europe are close to the development of the blogosphere found in the US. In some ways, what I was talking about over a couple of hours of back and forth was a foreign language to the professionals working campaigns in those areas of the world where internet access is very low due to a lack of personal PC's, like single-digit, and broadband access even lower.  What they do have is cell phones, and lots of them.

During one of the afternoons, we delved into the use of SMS in campaigns, and the participants, all of whom had much more experience than we do in the US with using mobile, shared their experiences. What struck me was how disruptive the tactics were for using SMS. It shouldn't have, given that's what new media technologies have done over and over again, in the hands of online insurgents and revolutionaries, even here in the USA.

In the recent Kenya elections, a professional read through some of the most popular viral SMS messages used during the campaign. They were incredibly incendiary (the most bizarre revolving around circumcision), and he questioned the assumption that new tools are being used in a constructive manner. SMS is used a lot, and is transforming politics in Africa, but not in a very controlled campaign-centric manner, but instead its very bottom up. One really key tip I learned from their experiences was that over half of the sign-ups for SMS from campaigns in Africa is not done from texting to the campaign, but actually calling a number, and having an automated service register your enrollment for SMS, so providing both routes when marketing the join process is key.

In eastern Europe, the most successful campaigns have also been the viral disruptive ones. Texting "he's lying" in Georgia, for example, during the speech's by their President broadcast on television. Or while in the traffic of Belarus, people setting a time ahead during which every person in their own car will suddenly honk their horn, or turn off their car for a minute and sit there on the road.

Every single country is very different in their experience, but one thing that's common among them all is the lack of browsing the internet. I think this could radically change in the next few years. The convergence that is happening between mobile and browsers right now will facilitate a leap-frog effect for countries where personal PC's are few in number, but mobile devices are proliferate. The use of social media via the internet will broaden widely. The cost will be a barrier still, but similar to how SMS is used, the information will be widely disseminated. And probably even more disruptive. It much easier to mask content on the internet than it is over the phone. There were many stories about persons who got in trouble with the ruling gov't or party, when SMS messages they forwarded fell into the wrong hands. Yes, IP's are tracked too, but places like internet cafes serve to mask the identity, as well as IP masking.

I'll hopefully be following up on the state of the parties, especially the LD's in a follow-up, and the current mayoral race in London. Probably the highlight of the trip, from a tourist perspective, was getting a prized ticked to attend the parliamentary questions and budget presentation last Wednesday. I watched the PM Brown, in the rapid fire format of UK politics, take questions, and then the follow-ups to the Budget presentation, given by the party leaders, especially those of David Cameron, the Conservative leader, and Nick Clegg, the LD's new leader. The UK political situation, at the leadership spot, has really transformed a lot in the time since the elections of 2005. It will make the liklihood that the next one, possibly in mid 2009, is a change election. Though the early betting was on the Tories behind Cameron, Clegg has got a populist change message that will resonate:

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Also, catch MP Ed Davey on Clegg's speech here. I met over dinner one night with Ed and some other LD's, and he asked me if I was 'spinning him' when I gave him a review of the Dems chances here in the US congressional and senate races, lol.

And you just have to take a look at Brian Paddick, the LD's candidate for Mayor in London. I got a chance to meet with him, advising him and his staff on using the internet for viral campaign strategy, and what a change he'd bring. His bio, a recent article, and the most recent poll shows him at 19, compared to 37 and 34 for the Labor and Torie. They use an IRV system of first and second choices on the ballot, so Paddick does have a good shot at winning with a late break toward him by voters.

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On May 3 local elections were held in most parts of England outside London, as were elections to the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Assembly. In the run-up to the elections it had been clear that Labour would do poorly across the board, yet Labour's acceptance of this appears to have changed the expectations game, placing the burden on the Conservatives, the Scottish Nationalist Party and Plaid Cymru.

The situation now is not absolutely settled, as there have been problems with weirdly high numbers of spoiled ballots in some Scottish constituencies (possibly due to the complicated ballot paper's needed for Holyrood's mixture of proportional representation and first-past-the-post voting). Nevertheless, at present, we can make these deductions:

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