John Sununu is a tough-love kind of guy. His response to citizens from his state that are concerned about high health care costs "stop complaining."

Sununu has been Bush's man in the Senate -  stopping the U.S. from importing cheaper prescription drugs from Canada, supported cutting Medicare payments, and voted against better health care for our military veterans.

George W Bush is leaving Washington soon, it looks like Sununu should leave with him.

There's more...

Earlier this week Markos made the correct point that the fact that both Mark Warner in Virginia and Tom Udall in New Mexico are blowing their Republican competitors out of the water in Senate head-to-heads might seem to diminish by comparison the fact that in New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen is holding on to a decent lead over unpopular freshman Republican Senator John Sununu. But just because Shaheen's lead is not as large as that of Warner or Udall doesn't mean that she's not sitting in a very good position to win in November. Here are the latest numbers from Rasmussen Reports, for example:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of New Hampshire voters shows hardly any change in the state's U.S. Senate race. Jeanne Shaheen (D) now leads incumbent Senator John Sununu (R) 50% to 43%. A month ago, Shaheen led 51% to 43%. The race is remarkably stable. Prior to the current poll showing a seven-point Shaheen lead, the challenger had enjoyed an eight-point lead in three consecutive monthly polls.

Any incumbent who is polling below 50% is considered potentially vulnerable. Sununu, facing a serious challenge from a former Governor of the state, is more vulnerable than most. This is the fifth Rasmussen Reports poll of the race and Sununu has never topped the 43% level of support. In each of the last two surveys, the challenger has hit the 50% mark.

The most interesting thing out of this poll: As noted by Rasmussen, Sununu has been unable to climb above 43 percent in any of the five surveys the pollster has conducted pitting him against Shaheen dating back to September. Indeed, Sununu has either come in at 41 or 43 percent while Shaheen has ranged from 48 to 51 percent. While Shaheen's lead at present is not statistically significant, the fact that Rasmussen's polling has remained so static for eight months speaks to the trouble faced by Sununu. Thinking back, the only incumbent during the 2006 cycle to consistently poll in the low 40s with very little movement was another hard right conservative who was out of touch with his Northeastern state -- Rick Santorum.

There is no reason to write this race off at this point -- there is yet a lot of work to do. But for now, this race has a decided tilt towards a Democratic pick up.

There's more...

Both the Rothenberg Political Report and the Cook Political Report (.pdf) rate the New Hampshire Senate race between freshman incumbent Republican John Sununu and former Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen as a "tossup." For a race that could go either way, the polling sure looks good. Take a look at the two sets of numbers out this week:

Rasmussen Reports

Sununu (R): 41 percent (41 percent in February)
Shaheen (D): 49 percent (49 percent in February)

American Research Group

Sununu (R): 33 percent (51 percent in December)
Shaheen (D): 47 percent (41 percent in December)

While ARG has been remarkably adept as missing the mark during the Democratic primaries, and a net swing of 24 points over the past three months in this race is not likely, when you take the ARG poll along with the one from Rasmussen, you get a pretty good sense that calling this race a pure tossup at this point might understate the Democrats' chances at a pickup here.

There's more...

Help Keep MyDD Going. Please Donate to the Site Today

In the New Hampshire Senate race, which is appears at this point to be the Democrats' third or fourth best pick-up opportunity this cycle, Democrat Jeanne Shaheen has outraised freshman Republican Senator John Sununu over the last three months, reports John DiStaso.

Sen. John Sununu was out-raised by former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen during the fourth quarter of 2007, but he entered this election year with three times the amount of money she has in the bank.

Sununu's year-end report shows he raised $921,626 from Oct. 1 to Dec. 31 and $4.5 million since he was elected in 2002. In the quarter, he raised $631,430 from individuals and $280,147 from political action committees. His campaign spent $225,198 during the quarter and has $3.42 million on hand.

Shaheen, who became a candidate last September, announced last week she raised $1.2 million during the quarter and has $1.15 million on hand.

Shaheen still has a way to go before she is able to catch up to Sununu in terms of cash-on-hand. Yet given the fact that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee holds a $17.3 million advantage over the National Republican Senatorial Committee (meaning that the Democrats potentially have more money and other resources to devote to the race than do the Republicans) and New Hampshire has clearly taken a turn towards the Democrats in recent years -- the state has a Democratic Governor and Democratic control over both chambers of its state legislature for the first time in over 130 years, and it has two Democrats representing it in the House of Representatives for the first time since 1915 -- I'm still decidedly of the opinion that this race leans, even if only slightly at this point, towards the Democrats.

There's more...

Tuesday night was not only a big night in the race for the White House, it was also a big night in the race to extend the Democrats' narrowest of narrow majorities in the United States Senate.

Taking a look back through last night's numbers there are a lot of good omens for former New Hampshire Governor Jeanne Shaheen, the leading Democratic challenger to freshman Republican Senator John Sununu this cycle. Overall last night, about 280,000 voters participated in the Democratic presidential primary while roughly 230,000 voters participated in the Republican contest. This marked the first time in the modern era that more voters participated in the Democratic primary than the Republican one when both were contested.

It also marked a major swing from even just the 2006 midterms, which were also great for the Democrats. During that cycle, the Democrats gained the trifecta (the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature) for the first time since 1874, and also picked up both of the state's two congressional seats, the first election in which they had done so since 1912. Looking at the statewide, two-party vote for Congress, the two Democratic challengers racked up 209,434 votes compared with the 189,615 votes received by the Republican incumbents. Comparing these numbers with the numbers from last night, the Democrats got about one-third more votes in the presidential primary than they did in November 2006 while the Republicans got just about 21 percent more votes than they did in the prior election.

Breaking the turnout numbers into percentages, about 54.9 percent of those voting last night voted in the Democratic primary while just 45.1 percent voted in the Republican primary. This compares with the 52.5 percent to 47.5 percent pro-Democratic spread from the 2006 midterms, again suggesting significant more growth on the Democratic side than on the Republican side.

Looking now at the exit poll data, it looks like an estimated 123,000 or so independent voters participated in the Democratic primary last night. This number compares with the roughly 85,000 independent voters estimated to have participated in the Republican primary. Looking at these numbers as percentages, about 59.2 percent of independents voting last night did so in the Democratic primary while just 40.8 percent voted in the Republican primary.

Broad trends alone do not an election victory make. That said, the nation as a whole is less Republican-friendly than it was during the very Republican-friendly 2002 cycle, and New Hampshire is certainly more Democratic than it was that year -- and seemingly even more Democratic than it was during the very pro-Democratic cycle we saw in 2006. Again, this does not ensure a victory for Shaheen. Nevertheless, it does give her a great base upon which to run next fall and it gives the Democrats nationally a great opportunity in their effort to grow their majority in the Senate.

There's more...