If somebody had told me six months ago that I would be campaigning in Boise, Idaho during the final two weeks before the election, I would have suggested rest and medication.  But here I am, Monday morning, on my way to Boise, not just for our candidate for Congress, Larry Grant, but the entire Democratic ticket--Jerry Brady for Governor and former Congressman Larry LaRocco for Lt Governor.  They are all managing amazing races and have upset the National Republican Party.  Recent campaign stops from Dennis Hastert, Dick Cheney, and Ken Melman, the RNC Chair are evidence, as is the hundreds of thousands of dollar that the national party never expected to invest.  Cheney is even coming again this week.

There's more...

This is genuinely different. I'm note sure if I have ever seen an ad like this before:



This election cycle has featured more ads trying to make use of humor than I can ever remember. In my opinion, the funniest one is still Ned Lamont's "Wang Chung" ad, which was made even funnier because that was the song they played in the ballroom after Ned Lamont gave his victory speech. This ad from Cranley is different not only because it makes use of humor, but also because it uses a celebrity impersonator to mimic Bush. Basically, it the same sort of ad you would expect to see in a political campaign, but instead the candidate or a voice-over, this ad has someone impersonating Bush saying it instead.

I think it works. This ad is having a strange ability to stick in my mind. It isn't that funny, but it has kept me quietly giggling and smiling for about fifteen minutes now. It seems to have more of an endurance, slow-twitch muscle fiber quality to its humor, rather than being built for a sprint. Overall, I think this ad will be effective because it shows just how much Cranley opposes Bush. Because he makes fun of Bush, you are left with the impression that Cranley really doesn't like Bush at all, and even shares some of the cynicism about candidates who say they oppose Bush, but don't actually do anything to show it. It also gets a nice dig in on Chabot by having Bush nickname him "Chabby," which is a thinly veiled homonym for "shabby."

On the web: John Cranley for Congress.

So what do Barry Welsh, our candidate in IN-06

http://www.barrywelsh.org/

and John Cranley, our candidate in OH-01

http://www.johncranley.com/

have in common? Birthdays? Signs of the Zodiac? Don't know about that. But the incumbents they're running against share something I wasn't aware of until yesterday. Different states, different situations; some would say, different tier races. Yet they are tied by at least one thread.  

There's more...

Democracy Corps has new polls out on three "second tier" House races this fall. In the straight-up trial heats that do not include anything except candidate names and titles, Republicans lead all three. However, all three are also competitive. With leaners, NJ-07 is at 54-35, PA-07 is at 51-41, and OH-01 is at 52-43. Without leaners, NJ-07 is at 49-30, PA-07 is at 48-37, and OH-01 is at 49-40.

More good news comes form voter enthusiasm numbers: In this mid-term election, who turns out to vote will obviously make the difference between Republican and Democratic control of Congress. In each of the three races surveyed by Democracy Corps, the evidence indicates that Republicans are demoralized. The percentage that strongly disapproves of Bush is more than twice the size the percentage who strongly approve of him. And on our 1 to 10 scale on interest in the election, the number of those supporting the Republican who say their interest in the election is a ten lags behind the number of Democratic supporters who indicate that level of serious interest. In PA-07, 70% of those supporting the Democratic candidate, Joe Sestak say they are extremely enthusiastic, while only 52% of Weldon (the loony Republican incumbent) supporters say they are very enthusiastic. In NJ-07, supporters of Democrat Linda Stender lead 55-43 in high enthusiasm levels, and in OH-01 supporters of Democrat Steve John Cranley lead 58-49.

None of these elections would currently be considered toss-ups or lean-Democratic, but clearly they are competitive. For races of this tier to be competitive five and a half months before the election, one can certainly see the making of a major national landslide. As Political Wire noted yesterday, The Cook Political Report currently lists fifty-five Republican held seats as potentially competitive, compared with only twenty seats held by Democrats. With Republicans needing to spend an unusually high amount of resources to try and hold on to seats such as PA-07, NJ-07, and OH-01, finding the fifteen seats needed for control of the House is certainly seems a lot easier than it did just a few months ago.