Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana announced plans in December to form an equivalent of the Blue Dog caucus in the Senate. Today his office rolled out the Moderate Dems Working Group:

WASHINGTON - A diverse group of 15 Senate Democrats today announced the formation of a new moderate coalition that will meet regularly to shape public policy. The group's goal is to work with the Senate leadership and the new administration to craft common-sense solutions to urgent national problems.

The Moderate Dems Working Group will meet every other Tuesday before the Democratic Caucus lunch to discuss legislative strategies and ideas. The Moderate Dems held their second meeting Tuesday to focus on the upcoming budget negotiations and the importance of passing a fiscally responsible spending plan in the Senate.

Leading the new group are Democratic Senators Evan Bayh of Indiana, Tom Carper of Delaware and Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas. Both Senators Bayh and Carper were successful governors before coming to the Senate. Senators Lincoln and Carper bring bicameral experience to the group as former members of the House of Representatives. All three leaders are honorary co-chairs of Third Way, a progressive Democratic policy group, and Senators Bayh and Carper have led the centrist Democratic Leadership Council.

At the working group meeting, Senator Bayh acknowledged that such a large group was unlikely to agree on all major issues before the Senate. Yet the Moderate Dems are joined by a shared commitment to pursue pragmatic, fiscally sustainable policies across a range of issues, such as deficit containment, health care reform, the housing crisis, educational reform, energy policy and climate change.

In addition to Senators Bayh, Carper and Lincoln, others joining the group are Senators Mark Udall and Michael Bennet of Colorado, Mark Begich of Alaska, Kay Hagan of North Carolina, Herb Kohl of Wisconsin, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Bill Nelson of Florida, Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, and Mark Warner of Virginia.

A few things jumped out at me:

15 members is a quarter of the Democratic Senate caucus. That's proportionally larger than the Blue Dog caucus in the House.

Look how many first-term senators have joined up with Bayh: McCaskill from the class of 2006 and Udall, Begich, Hagan, Shaheen and Warner from the class of 2008.

Of the Moderate Dems, only Bennet, Lincoln and Bayh are up for re-election in 2010. Lincoln and Bayh are not expected to face tough challenges.  

Of the Moderate Dems, only Lincoln, Landrieu, Begich and Ben Nelson represent states carried by John McCain. Why did the others rush to join a caucus that (based on Bayh's record) will try to water down President Barack Obama's agenda?

Back in December Matthew Yglesias advanced a very plausible hypothesis about Bayh's agenda:

With Republicans out of power, the GOP can't really block progressive change in exchange for large sums of special interest money. That creates an important market niche for Democrats willing to do the work. It was a good racket for the House Blue Dogs in 2007-2008 and there's no reason it couldn't work for Senate analogues over the next couple of years.

Bayh's press release includes a ludicrous quote from Harry Reid:

Of the working group's formation, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said, "If we are going to deliver the change Americans demanded and move our country forward, it will require the courage to get past our political differences and get to work. Established organizations like Third Way and new ventures like this group offer us a new opportunity to get things done, and I support every effort that puts real solutions above political posturing."

Raise your hand if you believe that Bayh's group is going to offer "a new opportunity to get things done."

The only good I can imagine coming of Bayh's venture is if the group gives some political cover to Democratic senators representing red or purple states, making it harder for Republicans to tie them to liberal bogeymen.

This optimistic scenario would pan out only if the Moderate Dems do not consistently vote as a bloc with Bayh. Earlier this month, David Waldman/Kagro X analyzed some Senate votes in which Bayh supported Republican amendments. If you click that link you'll see that various senators named in today's press release did not vote with the Bayh/Republican position.

For that reason, Waldman greeted today's news with a big yawn and doesn't seem worried that the Moderate Dems will do anything other than help Bayh show off how "moderate" he is.

The Russians say one should "hope for the best but prepare for the worst." As a Democrat who wants President Obama to succeed, I hope Waldman is right and the "Moderate Dems" are just using Bayh to bolster their "centrist" image.

On the other hand, if Bayh's group develops along the path envisioned by Yglesias, which I consider more likely, then Democrats really should prepare for the worst in 2010. The severe recession may make next year a tough environment for the president's party to begin with. If Democrats carrying water for corporate interests sink "the change we need," Democratic base turnout could drop significantly, as it did in 1994. Most of the Moderate Dems Working Group members will not face the voters until 2012 and 2014, but their obstruction could harm many other Congressional Democrats.

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(Proudly cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama)

OK, now that the convention is over... It's time for us to get back to work! And for us here at C4O, this means getting more & better Democrats elected. So today, I'd like to introduce you to a truly awesome person who will make a fantastic Senator from New Hampshire.

Are you ready tomeet her?

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Dear Friend,

Tuesday, Jonathan sent out an urgent video message from me.   (If you missed it - you can still watch it here). (ed. NewHampster suggests everyone watch)

I explained to you the biggest challenge facing our campaign.  We are fighting on two fronts:  facing down John Sununu's $3 million cash on hand advantage and the right-wing groups that are dumping tons of money into attack ads against Jeanne Shaheen.   This has led to a $500,000 gap in our campaign budget.  

Many have already taken action and contributed.

Thank you.

If you have not yet - now is the time. The full weight of Sununu's war chest and the right-wing attack groups will fall in the next few weeks.

If we want a new direction in Washington, then we need a new Senator.

Robby Mook
Campaign Manager
Jeanne Shaheen for Senate

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As part of her Middle Class Matters Tour, former Governor Jeanne Shaheen this week joined a group of New Hampshire citizens for a house party in Amherst, NH.

Gov. Shaheen gave an informal talk on her motivation for entering the Senate race and her goals once elected. She was the first woman elected Governor of New Hampshire and, if the polls hold, will be the first woman Senator from the state.  As the event's hostess said in her introductory remarks, Shaheen was also one of the first NH public servants to emphasize environmental issues back when she was a state senator.  Hence her present campaign, as her earlier campaigns, is associated with the color green.  She has been leading Senator Sununu in the polls by around 7-10%.

Gov. Shaheen began by saying that the country is facing so many overwhelming challenges and she wants to address them all, but her two main priorities are energy independence and universal health care.  She made the chief focus in this conversation the growing energy crisis, pointing out that this actually affects three crucial issues important to Americans:  the economy, national security, and the environment itself.  Achieving greater energy independence from foreign sources is critical for our economy.  The more independent we are, the less we will be paying for gas at the pump and heating oil for our furnaces.  Jeanne also underscored the importance economically of eliminating tax breaks for oil companies.  That money, she said, will be put to good use developing alternative sources of energy.  The former governor had just visited a NH company called Mascoma which is using wood bi-products to produce "cellulosic" ethanol.  (A needed alternative to corn-based ethanol, which has problems of its own.)  She especially emphasized nothing can help the environment more than energy efficiency and conservation.  Finally, our national security will be strengthened by achieving energy independence, since we as a nation will no longer be held hostage to other countries through our oil dependency.

Here's an outline of her energy/environmental plans from her website:

Jeanne Shaheen supports:

*Setting a goal of reducing carbon emissions by 80 percent by 2050.

*Instituting economy-wide emissions reductions in our own country and working with international partners to achieve global emissions reductions.  To reduce emissions, Shaheen believes we should institute a cap-and-trade system which limits pollutants by selling permits to corporations who pollute and enforcing caps on the amount of pollution they can emit.  The profits from the auction of those permits should be invested in the development of clean, alternative energy sources like wind, solar and wood by-products.

*Developing a significant shift in our long-term energy policy by ending billions of dollars in tax breaks to Big Oil and instead investing that money in the development of renewable energy sources.

*Shifting tax incentives from corn-based ethanol to wood-based ethanol.  Developing wood-based ethanol would provide a clean alternative energy source that would not impact the global food supply and, thanks to New Hampshire's abundant forests, would create jobs right here in the state.

Governor Shaheen ended her talk by highlighting her strong and passionate support for public campaign financing.  Speaking of campaign financing, right now she is a couple million bucks behind Sununu.  The Sununu campaign is already taking a low road, having just recently aired a negative ad here against Gov. Shaheen. In a personal email note from Jeanne to her supporters, she noted that Sununo has just this past week:

hired some of George W. Bush's political operatives to run his campaign. They are wasting no time.

New Hampshire will be a battleground state this election cycle and the Republican Party and their 527 special interest attack groups will pull no punches.

Our opponent is busy collecting big checks from oil and gas companies and wealthy corporate interests to pay for these attacks. We need your help to fight back. Reach out to your friends, neighbors, and coworkers and ask them to contribute and join the fight for change.  Together, we can fight back.

Here's Gov. Shaheen's own first ad:   http://jeanneshaheen.org/ad

If you like her ad, please donate so she can air some more ads soon.  Thanks!  

http://jeanneshaheen.org/contribute/08

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The latest ARG poll of the New Hampshire senate race (558 RVs, Dec. 16-19, MOE +/- 4.2%) shows John Sununu pulling ahead of Jeanne Shaheen for the first time since Shaheen declared for the seat in September. Since ARG and Rasmussen polls showed Shaheen leading Sununu by 5% in September, Sununu has consistently been behind by double digits, but now the tables appear to have turned.

Shaheen (D) 41
Sununu (R) 52
Undecided 7

As you might expect, this result appears to be a direct consequence of Bill Shaheen's not so subtle attack on Barack Obama earlier this month that led to his stepping down as New Hampshire co-chair of Hillary Clinton's campaign.

From Congressional Quarterly:

The name "Shaheen" appeared in the national news just a few days before the poll was taken, but it wasn't Jeanne Shaheen that made the headlines. Her husband, longtime Democratic presidential strategist Bill Shaheen, announced Dec. 13 that he was quitting his co-chairman position on Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton 's presidential campaign after making comments about Barack Obama and drug use that evoked strong criticism.

Dick Bennett, president of American Research Group, told CQ Politics that he believes some poll respondents were influenced by the Shaheen flap because Democratic voters, especially those supporting Obama, may have negatively reacted to reminders that the Shaheen family has already signed on to Clinton's campaign.

Indeed, you look at the party breakdown of support for the two candidates and it certainly looks as though NH Democrats are punishing Shaheen for her husband's stunt. While 93% of Republicans say they support John Sununu, only 79% of Democrats support Shaheen and even 13% of Democrats say they'll support the Republican. This is in stark contrast to the 90% support Shaheen drew from New Hampshire Dems in the November Survey USA poll.

ARG president Dick Bennett warns that this result is likely a temporary aberration and that the race is likely to tighten once again, but it certainly sends a warning to Democrats not to take this race for granted and serves as a reminder to the presidential candidates and their surrogates as to just how much power, and with that, responsibility, they have when it comes to the down-ballot races in a presidential year. One of the knocks against Clinton is that her divisiveness and her potential to rally Republicans will hurt Democrats down ticket nationally; considering Bill Shaheen's connection to the Clinton campaign, this poll certainly does nothing to allay that fear.

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