Earlier this week Markos made the correct point that the fact that both Mark Warner in Virginia and Tom Udall in New Mexico are blowing their Republican competitors out of the water in Senate head-to-heads might seem to diminish by comparison the fact that in New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen is holding on to a decent lead over unpopular freshman Republican Senator John Sununu. But just because Shaheen's lead is not as large as that of Warner or Udall doesn't mean that she's not sitting in a very good position to win in November. Here are the latest numbers from Rasmussen Reports, for example:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of New Hampshire voters shows hardly any change in the state's U.S. Senate race. Jeanne Shaheen (D) now leads incumbent Senator John Sununu (R) 50% to 43%. A month ago, Shaheen led 51% to 43%. The race is remarkably stable. Prior to the current poll showing a seven-point Shaheen lead, the challenger had enjoyed an eight-point lead in three consecutive monthly polls.

Any incumbent who is polling below 50% is considered potentially vulnerable. Sununu, facing a serious challenge from a former Governor of the state, is more vulnerable than most. This is the fifth Rasmussen Reports poll of the race and Sununu has never topped the 43% level of support. In each of the last two surveys, the challenger has hit the 50% mark.

The most interesting thing out of this poll: As noted by Rasmussen, Sununu has been unable to climb above 43 percent in any of the five surveys the pollster has conducted pitting him against Shaheen dating back to September. Indeed, Sununu has either come in at 41 or 43 percent while Shaheen has ranged from 48 to 51 percent. While Shaheen's lead at present is not statistically significant, the fact that Rasmussen's polling has remained so static for eight months speaks to the trouble faced by Sununu. Thinking back, the only incumbent during the 2006 cycle to consistently poll in the low 40s with very little movement was another hard right conservative who was out of touch with his Northeastern state -- Rick Santorum.

There is no reason to write this race off at this point -- there is yet a lot of work to do. But for now, this race has a decided tilt towards a Democratic pick up.

There's more...

Both the Rothenberg Political Report and the Cook Political Report (.pdf) rate the New Hampshire Senate race between freshman incumbent Republican John Sununu and former Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen as a "tossup." For a race that could go either way, the polling sure looks good. Take a look at the two sets of numbers out this week:

Rasmussen Reports

Sununu (R): 41 percent (41 percent in February)
Shaheen (D): 49 percent (49 percent in February)

American Research Group

Sununu (R): 33 percent (51 percent in December)
Shaheen (D): 47 percent (41 percent in December)

While ARG has been remarkably adept as missing the mark during the Democratic primaries, and a net swing of 24 points over the past three months in this race is not likely, when you take the ARG poll along with the one from Rasmussen, you get a pretty good sense that calling this race a pure tossup at this point might understate the Democrats' chances at a pickup here.

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In the New Hampshire Senate race, which is appears at this point to be the Democrats' third or fourth best pick-up opportunity this cycle, Democrat Jeanne Shaheen has outraised freshman Republican Senator John Sununu over the last three months, reports John DiStaso.

Sen. John Sununu was out-raised by former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen during the fourth quarter of 2007, but he entered this election year with three times the amount of money she has in the bank.

Sununu's year-end report shows he raised $921,626 from Oct. 1 to Dec. 31 and $4.5 million since he was elected in 2002. In the quarter, he raised $631,430 from individuals and $280,147 from political action committees. His campaign spent $225,198 during the quarter and has $3.42 million on hand.

Shaheen, who became a candidate last September, announced last week she raised $1.2 million during the quarter and has $1.15 million on hand.

Shaheen still has a way to go before she is able to catch up to Sununu in terms of cash-on-hand. Yet given the fact that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee holds a $17.3 million advantage over the National Republican Senatorial Committee (meaning that the Democrats potentially have more money and other resources to devote to the race than do the Republicans) and New Hampshire has clearly taken a turn towards the Democrats in recent years -- the state has a Democratic Governor and Democratic control over both chambers of its state legislature for the first time in over 130 years, and it has two Democrats representing it in the House of Representatives for the first time since 1915 -- I'm still decidedly of the opinion that this race leans, even if only slightly at this point, towards the Democrats.

There's more...

It's not often that you get a race in which a challenger leads an incumbent from day one of the campaign. We saw it last cycle in the race between Bob Casey and Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania, but I believe that was the only Senate race of the cycle in which that was the case. But now it seems we are seeing such a race again. Take a look at the latest survey commissioned from the University of New Hampshire by CNN and WMUR on the New Hampshire Senate race between freshman Republican John Sununu and Democratic challenger Jean Shaheen:

SununuShaheenUNH
9/17-24/073854Rasmussen Reports
9/16/074348ARG
9/14-17/074146Research 2000
7/14/073456UNH (.pdf)
7/9-17/073854ARG
6/28/072957ARG
3/29/0734441-Month Ave.40.749.37-Month Ave.36.751.3

There was some initial concern that Shaheen's lead in the first two polls after she announced her candidacy was not as big as some had expected. This new poll from UNH, while potentially being an outlier (it's always better to see a couple of polls coming to a similar conclusion before putting too much stock in one new set of data), may assauge some of these concerns.

But stepping back and reiterating a point mentioned above, it's a very rare occasion in which a challenger leads an incumbent this early in the cycle. Yes, Shaheen is well known from her successful tenure as Governor of the Granite State and she faced off against Sununu previously. Nonetheless, it's still remarkable to see her leading this soon -- and these numbers (either the slightly earlier ones showing her with a smaller lead or these new ones showing her up by a double-digit margin) augur well for her hopes of winning and, perhaps more importantly, the Democrats' hopes of her winning without the DSCC needing to invest excessive amounts of money.

The race but a few days old, but now there are already a couple of head-to-head polls that have been released publicly:

	ARG	Rasmussen Reports
Sununu	41	43
Shaheen	46	48

ARG: 558 RVs, September 14-17, MoE +/- 4.2%
Rasmussen Reports: 800 LVs, September 16, MoE +/- 4.5%

Earlier this summer polling suggested that Shaheen, who was not yet in the race at the time, would lead by a significantly larger margin in a potential race against Sununu. So Sununu is looking relatively good, then, right? Not so much. Take a look at this report from the Associated Press.

"Jeanne Shaheen was governor for six years and completely failed to deal with education funding, the state's highest priority," Sununu told The Associated Press after a groundbreaking ceremony. "When it comes to government not working, she obviously knows what she's talking about because that was a failure of leadership."

In general, incumbents don't go negative unless they have to -- and they certainly don't go negative this early unless they believe they have no other choice but to do so in order to even have a shot at winning reelection. In fact, just about the only incumbent I can remember having gone negative this early was Rick Santorum, and that's not a comparison Sununu would like to see be made.

Sununu is weak -- and he knows it. While this race isn't a gimme for the Democrats, it is by far the party's best pickup opportunity outside of open-seat races. And unless the National Republican Senatorial Committee is willing to sink a significant chunk of its money in New Hampshire this cycle -- and the Granite State is actually a relatively expensive state to advertise in given the need to be on air in the Boston market -- it's going to be mighty difficult for the GOP to hold on to this seat. And if the NRSC does go big into New Hampshire, I'm not sure where it's going to find the money to play in the host of other races that will determine control over the Senate this cycle.