GOP to Run on Anti-Immigrant Platform Again
by Jonathan Singer, Tue Oct 23, 2007 at 12:09:28 PM EDT
During the 2006 midterms Republicans avoided issues upon which the majority of Americans decided their votes in favor of ramping up the anti-immigration rhetoric. Not surprisingly, this strategy was an utter and objective failure, both in the short run (the GOP losing control over both chambers of Congress, a significant shift of Hispanic voters to the Democratic Party) and in the long run (alienating Hispanic voters could seriously damage the GOP's electability in the future, particularly in the Mountain West). Nevertheless, faced with the continued fervent opposition to the GOP's Iraq strategy, as well as the public's unhappiness with the results stemming from conservative economic policy, the Republicans apparently believe that their way to salvation in 2008 will come through speaking loudly about the issue of immigration. Jonathan Weisman has the story for The Washington Post.
Republicans, sensing a major vulnerability, have been hammering Democrats, forcing Congress to face the question of illegal immigration on every bill they can find, from agriculture spending and housing assistance to the State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP).[...]
The issue has shifted since concerns about illegal immigrants triggered angry calls for border fences and deportation two years ago. Now, voter anger appears to revolve around the belief that illegal immigrants are unfairly consuming government benefits, a fear that stems more from economic uncertainty than culture clashes, Democratic and Republican pollsters say.
Those concerns are not everywhere. But they are glaring in some of the white, working-class districts in Kansas, Indiana, North Carolina and New Hampshire that gave the Democrats control of the House last year. And they were on clear display in Lowell, Mass [where Democrat Nicki Tsongas won a special election last week in which Republican Jim Ogonowski focused on the issue of immigration, particularly Tsongas' support for a path to citizenship and for drivers licenses for undocumented residents].
Democrats on Capitol Hill may be getting a bit skittish over the issue of immigation as a result of the continual calls to their offices by a determined, yet clearly small minority of voters who are vehemently opposed to a path to citizenship or even legalization for those currently in the country unlawfully, but they shouldn't read nearly as much into the results of the special election in Massachusetts 5 as the Republicans, some in the press and even some Democratic pollsters suggest they should.
As I've noted before, Tsongas' victory was not nearly as underwhelming as many would have you believe. In fact, Tsongas' margin of victory was greater than that of Deval Patrick in the district, even though the 2006 Democratic gubernatorial nominee won statewide by a wide margin. What's more, Marc Ambinder writes that there are number of things to learn from the results out of Massachusetts 5 that have nothing whatsoever to do with immigration.
Jim Ogonowski was universally regarded as a better candidate that Nikki Tsongas; this war vet he ran to the left of many Democratic presidential candidates on the war; he benefited from grassroots Republican internet support; Tsongas was treated roughly by the press; -- talented Republicans who run campaigns that comport to the moods of their districts can be competitive against Democrats.[...]
Backed by the national party, Tsongas defeated a popular Lowell councilwoman in the Democratic primary; shades of Tammy Duckworth: Tsongas drew the resentment of liberal activists whose candidate she defeated.
If the Democrats cave to the Republicans on the issue of immigration, they do so at their own risk. Attacking illegal immigration and illegal immigrants didn't save the Republican Party in 2006 and it's not going to in 2008, either -- that is unless the Democrats allow themselves to get psyched out by the GOP on the issue.






